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Politics·Primaries

MI-10 Republican Primary Winner

icon for MI-10 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

MI-10 Republican Primary Winner

Mike Bouchard 93%

Robert Lulgjuraj 3.5%

Casey Armitage 2.5%

Justin Kirk <1%

Polymarket

$11,929 Vol.

Mike Bouchard 93%

Robert Lulgjuraj 3.5%

Casey Armitage 2.5%

Justin Kirk <1%

Polymarket

$11,929 Vol.

Mike Bouchard

$3,072 Vol.

93%

Robert Lulgjuraj

$2,726 Vol.

4%

Casey Armitage

$2,725 Vol.

2%

Justin Kirk

$1,220 Vol.

1%

Steven Elliott

$2,185 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mike Bouchard holds a dominant position in the August 4 Republican primary for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District due to his substantial cash-on-hand advantage exceeding $847,000, military record as an Army captain and Bronze Star recipient, and endorsements from groups including Turning Point Action and the Police Officers Association of Michigan along with local officials such as Macomb County Prosecutor Pete Lucido. The open seat, created by incumbent John James’s gubernatorial bid, features challengers like Robert Lulgjuraj with prior prosecutorial experience, yet none match Bouchard’s fundraising or validator network across Macomb and Oakland counties. Recent polling shows him leading by roughly 30 points with many voters undecided. Late developments such as shifts in voter turnout, additional endorsements, or unforeseen campaign events before primary day remain the main avenues for any change in the current trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,929
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mike Bouchard holds a dominant position in the August 4 Republican primary for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District due to his substantial cash-on-hand advantage exceeding $847,000, military record as an Army captain and Bronze Star recipient, and endorsements from groups including Turning Point Action and the Police Officers Association of Michigan along with local officials such as Macomb County Prosecutor Pete Lucido. The open seat, created by incumbent John James’s gubernatorial bid, features challengers like Robert Lulgjuraj with prior prosecutorial experience, yet none match Bouchard’s fundraising or validator network across Macomb and Oakland counties. Recent polling shows him leading by roughly 30 points with many voters undecided. Late developments such as shifts in voter turnout, additional endorsements, or unforeseen campaign events before primary day remain the main avenues for any change in the current trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$11,929
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Bouchard" at 93%, followed by "Robert Lulgjuraj" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $11.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" is "Mike Bouchard" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Robert Lulgjuraj" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.