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Politics·Primaries

MI-10 Republican Primary Winner

icon for MI-10 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

MI-10 Republican Primary Winner

Mike Bouchard 66%

Robert Lulgjuraj 26.0%

Justin Kirk 9.7%

Casey Armitage 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Mike Bouchard 66%

Robert Lulgjuraj 26.0%

Justin Kirk 9.7%

Casey Armitage 8%

Polymarket
NEW

Mike Bouchard

$2,095 Vol.

66%

Robert Lulgjuraj

$2,097 Vol.

26%

Justin Kirk

$828 Vol.

10%

Casey Armitage

$2,318 Vol.

8%

Steven Elliott

$1,760 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Michael Bouchard's 65.5% implied probability as trader consensus frontrunner in Michigan's 10th Congressional District Republican primary stems from his dominant Q1 2026 fundraising haul of $427,000—outpacing Robert Lulgjuraj's $212,000—yielding the highest cash on hand at $847,000, per April 15 FEC filings that sharpened the race. Bouchard's Army veteran status, name recognition from his Oakland County sheriff father, and cross-county endorsements from figures like Macomb Prosecutor Pete Lucido bolster his edge over Lulgjuraj's stronger Macomb base and local support, while earlier polls like Strategic National's March survey showed him leading 29%. Lower probabilities for Steven Elliott, Justin Kirk, and Casey Armitage reflect their weaker financials amid the open seat vacated by Rep. John James for governor, with the August 4 open primary still months away.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$9,097
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Michael Bouchard's 65.5% implied probability as trader consensus frontrunner in Michigan's 10th Congressional District Republican primary stems from his dominant Q1 2026 fundraising haul of $427,000—outpacing Robert Lulgjuraj's $212,000—yielding the highest cash on hand at $847,000, per April 15 FEC filings that sharpened the race. Bouchard's Army veteran status, name recognition from his Oakland County sheriff father, and cross-county endorsements from figures like Macomb Prosecutor Pete Lucido bolster his edge over Lulgjuraj's stronger Macomb base and local support, while earlier polls like Strategic National's March survey showed him leading 29%. Lower probabilities for Steven Elliott, Justin Kirk, and Casey Armitage reflect their weaker financials amid the open seat vacated by Rep. John James for governor, with the August 4 open primary still months away.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$9,097
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Bouchard" at 66%, followed by "Robert Lulgjuraj" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 18, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" is "Mike Bouchard" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Robert Lulgjuraj" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.