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Politics·Primaries

MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner

Tim Greimel 29%

Christina Hines 18%

Tripp Adams 1.4%

Brian Jaye <1%

Polymarket

$42,464 Vol.

Tim Greimel 29%

Christina Hines 18%

Tripp Adams 1.4%

Brian Jaye <1%

Polymarket

$42,464 Vol.

Tim Greimel

$30,197 Vol.

35%

Christina Hines

$3,053 Vol.

29%

Tripp Adams

$2,892 Vol.

1%

Brian Jaye

$2,540 Vol.

<1%

Eric Chung

$3,783 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in Michigan's 10th Congressional District Democratic primary favors former Commerce Department attorney Eric Chung at 53% implied probability, ahead of Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel (34.5%) and prosecutor Christina Hines (32%), reflecting his fundraising dominance—leading Democratic candidates with over $300,000 raised early and strong Q1 2026 hauls—amid an open seat vacated by Rep. John James' gubernatorial bid. A late-April GSG poll (April 23-26, 400 likely voters) revealed 50% undecideds initially but Hines surging to 53% on informed ballot versus Chung's 22% and Greimel's 14%, diverging from market pricing as traders appear skeptical of the campaign internal; Greimel's local leadership and Hines' EMILY's List backing sustain their competitiveness ahead of the August 4 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$42,464
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 6:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus in Michigan's 10th Congressional District Democratic primary favors former Commerce Department attorney Eric Chung at 53% implied probability, ahead of Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel (34.5%) and prosecutor Christina Hines (32%), reflecting his fundraising dominance—leading Democratic candidates with over $300,000 raised early and strong Q1 2026 hauls—amid an open seat vacated by Rep. John James' gubernatorial bid. A late-April GSG poll (April 23-26, 400 likely voters) revealed 50% undecideds initially but Hines surging to 53% on informed ballot versus Chung's 22% and Greimel's 14%, diverging from market pricing as traders appear skeptical of the campaign internal; Greimel's local leadership and Hines' EMILY's List backing sustain their competitiveness ahead of the August 4 primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$42,464
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 6:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Chung" at 44%, followed by "Tim Greimel" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $42.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Eric Chung" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tim Greimel" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.