California’s June 2 top-two primary for governor remains too close to call as vote counting continues, with Republican Steve Hilton holding a slim lead over Democrat Xavier Becerra while Tom Steyer trails in third and Chad Bianco in fourth. Late-arriving mail ballots, which historically favor Democrats, position Becerra to finish first or second by a narrow margin. The crowded Democratic field has fragmented support among Becerra, Steyer, and others, preventing any single candidate from building a commanding lead and keeping the race within single digits. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates Becerra securing the top spot by less than five points once all ballots are tallied, with alternative outcomes such as a Hilton or Bianco win or a Steyer surge priced as low-probability tail events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElección primaria de gobernador de California: ¿Margen de victoria?
Elección primaria de gobernador de California: ¿Margen de victoria?
Becerra <5% 58%
Becerra 5–10% 25%
Becerra 10%+ 2.6%
Bianco gana 2.4%
$27,196 Vol.
$27,196 Vol.
2 jun 2026
Becerra 10%+
3%
Becerra 5–10%
26%
Becerra <5%
64%
Steyer 5%+
2%
Steyer <5%
2%
Victoria de Hilton
1%
Bianco gana
2%
Becerra <5% 58%
Becerra 5–10% 25%
Becerra 10%+ 2.6%
Bianco gana 2.4%
$27,196 Vol.
$27,196 Vol.
2 jun 2026
Becerra 10%+
$6,081 Vol.
3%
Becerra 5–10%
$11,350 Vol.
26%
Becerra <5%
$3,464 Vol.
64%
Steyer 5%+
$1,216 Vol.
2%
Steyer <5%
$1,856 Vol.
2%
Victoria de Hilton
$2,628 Vol.
1%
Bianco gana
$602 Vol.
2%
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.California’s June 2 top-two primary for governor remains too close to call as vote counting continues, with Republican Steve Hilton holding a slim lead over Democrat Xavier Becerra while Tom Steyer trails in third and Chad Bianco in fourth. Late-arriving mail ballots, which historically favor Democrats, position Becerra to finish first or second by a narrow margin. The crowded Democratic field has fragmented support among Becerra, Steyer, and others, preventing any single candidate from building a commanding lead and keeping the race within single digits. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates Becerra securing the top spot by less than five points once all ballots are tallied, with alternative outcomes such as a Hilton or Bianco win or a Steyer surge priced as low-probability tail events.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: May 28, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$27,196Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 28, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.California’s June 2 top-two primary for governor remains too close to call as vote counting continues, with Republican Steve Hilton holding a slim lead over Democrat Xavier Becerra while Tom Steyer trails in third and Chad Bianco in fourth. Late-arriving mail ballots, which historically favor Democrats, position Becerra to finish first or second by a narrow margin. The crowded Democratic field has fragmented support among Becerra, Steyer, and others, preventing any single candidate from building a commanding lead and keeping the race within single digits. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates Becerra securing the top spot by less than five points once all ballots are tallied, with alternative outcomes such as a Hilton or Bianco win or a Steyer surge priced as low-probability tail events.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$27,196Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 28, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...California’s June 2 top-two primary for governor remains too close to call as vote counting continues, with Republican Steve Hilton holding a slim lead over Democrat Xavier Becerra while Tom Steyer trails in third and Chad Bianco in fourth. Late-arriving mail ballots, which historically favor Democrats, position Becerra to finish first or second by a narrow margin. The crowded Democratic field has fragmented support among Becerra, Steyer, and others, preventing any single candidate from building a commanding lead and keeping the race within single digits. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates Becerra securing the top spot by less than five points once all ballots are tallied, with alternative outcomes such as a Hilton or Bianco win or a Steyer surge priced as low-probability tail events.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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