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Politics·France

Macron out by...?

icon for Macron out by...?
Politics·France

Macron out by...?

$1,937,483 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,937,483 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$345,639 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between October 6, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.French President Emmanuel Macron's second term ends in May 2027 due to constitutional term limits, with no legal mechanism to force a presidential resignation amid France's ongoing political crisis triggered by the 2024 snap legislative elections that yielded a hung National Assembly. Successive governments under Prime Ministers Barnier, Bayrou, and now Sébastien Lecornu have faced no-confidence votes, but Lecornu's administration survived challenges in January 2026 by invoking Article 49.3 to pass the 2026 budget, providing short-term stability. Macron has repeatedly dismissed calls to step down early, while recent reports of his inner circle departing signal transition preparations. Absent major scandals, health issues, or snap parliamentary developments, the focus remains on navigating gridlock until the 2027 presidential election.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,937,483
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2025, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between October 6, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.French President Emmanuel Macron's second term ends in May 2027 due to constitutional term limits, with no legal mechanism to force a presidential resignation amid France's ongoing political crisis triggered by the 2024 snap legislative elections that yielded a hung National Assembly. Successive governments under Prime Ministers Barnier, Bayrou, and now Sébastien Lecornu have faced no-confidence votes, but Lecornu's administration survived challenges in January 2026 by invoking Article 49.3 to pass the 2026 budget, providing short-term stability. Macron has repeatedly dismissed calls to step down early, while recent reports of his inner circle departing signal transition preparations. Absent major scandals, health issues, or snap parliamentary developments, the focus remains on navigating gridlock until the 2027 presidential election.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,937,483
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2025, 5:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Macron out by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 2%, followed by "October 31, 2025" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Macron out by...?" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Macron out by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Macron out by...?" is "June 30, 2026" at just 2%, with "October 31, 2025" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Macron out by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.