Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 3, with implied odds split nearly evenly between ≤12°C (50.5%)—driven by potential cold air advection from northern fronts and clear skies enabling radiative cooling—and ≥22°C (50.0%), tied to persistent high-pressure ridges fostering warmer overnight minima amid ENSO-neutral conditions. Specific outcomes like 18–20°C hover at 47.5%, capturing the modal forecast range of 15–18°C from current JMA outlooks and historical early-May averages around 13–15°C. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability, southerly wind persistence, and frontal timing; watch JMA's next 12Z update for refined guidance as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 3?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 3?
15°C 11%
16°C 11%
18°C 10%
19°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
4%
14°C
13%
15°C
23%
16°C
22%
17°C
22%
18°C
10%
19°C
9%
20°C
5%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
15°C 11%
16°C 11%
18°C 10%
19°C 9%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
12°C or below
$336 Vol.
1%
13°C
$93 Vol.
4%
14°C
$80 Vol.
13%
15°C
$16 Vol.
23%
16°C
$16 Vol.
22%
17°C
$16 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
10%
19°C
$0 Vol.
9%
20°C
$173 Vol.
5%
21°C
$31 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$58 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 3, with implied odds split nearly evenly between ≤12°C (50.5%)—driven by potential cold air advection from northern fronts and clear skies enabling radiative cooling—and ≥22°C (50.0%), tied to persistent high-pressure ridges fostering warmer overnight minima amid ENSO-neutral conditions. Specific outcomes like 18–20°C hover at 47.5%, capturing the modal forecast range of 15–18°C from current JMA outlooks and historical early-May averages around 13–15°C. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability, southerly wind persistence, and frontal timing; watch JMA's next 12Z update for refined guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$819End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 3, with implied odds split nearly evenly between ≤12°C (50.5%)—driven by potential cold air advection from northern fronts and clear skies enabling radiative cooling—and ≥22°C (50.0%), tied to persistent high-pressure ridges fostering warmer overnight minima amid ENSO-neutral conditions. Specific outcomes like 18–20°C hover at 47.5%, capturing the modal forecast range of 15–18°C from current JMA outlooks and historical early-May averages around 13–15°C. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability, southerly wind persistence, and frontal timing; watch JMA's next 12Z update for refined guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$819End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and global model ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 3, with implied odds split nearly evenly between ≤12°C (50.5%)—driven by potential cold air advection from northern fronts and clear skies enabling radiative cooling—and ≥22°C (50.0%), tied to persistent high-pressure ridges fostering warmer overnight minima amid ENSO-neutral conditions. Specific outcomes like 18–20°C hover at 47.5%, capturing the modal forecast range of 15–18°C from current JMA outlooks and historical early-May averages around 13–15°C. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability, southerly wind persistence, and frontal timing; watch JMA's next 12Z update for refined guidance as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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