Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 12°C in Seoul on May 1, driven by official Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observational data confirming the pre-dawn minimum at that exact mark amid stable high-pressure conditions and light westerly winds that limited radiative cooling. Hourly readings from KMA stations show temperatures bottoming out around 5-6 a.m. local time before steady diurnal warming under mostly clear skies, aligning precisely with short-range forecast models like those from ECMWF and KMA's own systems. This positioning reflects early May climatology, where Seoul's average lows hover 11-13°C, with no active cold air masses or frontal boundaries in play. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-night surge in northerly outflow or sudden clear-sky cooling, but residual daytime heat and increasing cloudiness make sub-12°C readings highly unlikely as the day progresses toward resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul on May 1?
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 1?
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$14,160 Vol.
$14,160 Vol.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$14,160 Vol.
$14,160 Vol.
May 1, 2026
7°C or below
$1,397 Vol.
No
8°C
$1,359 Vol.
No
9°C
$875 Vol.
No
10°C
$761 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,471 Vol.
No
12°C
$3,865 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$977 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,407 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,401 Vol.
No
16°C
$340 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$308 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 12°C in Seoul on May 1, driven by official Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observational data confirming the pre-dawn minimum at that exact mark amid stable high-pressure conditions and light westerly winds that limited radiative cooling. Hourly readings from KMA stations show temperatures bottoming out around 5-6 a.m. local time before steady diurnal warming under mostly clear skies, aligning precisely with short-range forecast models like those from ECMWF and KMA's own systems. This positioning reflects early May climatology, where Seoul's average lows hover 11-13°C, with no active cold air masses or frontal boundaries in play. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-night surge in northerly outflow or sudden clear-sky cooling, but residual daytime heat and increasing cloudiness make sub-12°C readings highly unlikely as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$14,160End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 12°C in Seoul on May 1, driven by official Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observational data confirming the pre-dawn minimum at that exact mark amid stable high-pressure conditions and light westerly winds that limited radiative cooling. Hourly readings from KMA stations show temperatures bottoming out around 5-6 a.m. local time before steady diurnal warming under mostly clear skies, aligning precisely with short-range forecast models like those from ECMWF and KMA's own systems. This positioning reflects early May climatology, where Seoul's average lows hover 11-13°C, with no active cold air masses or frontal boundaries in play. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-night surge in northerly outflow or sudden clear-sky cooling, but residual daytime heat and increasing cloudiness make sub-12°C readings highly unlikely as the day progresses toward resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,160End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 12°C in Seoul on May 1, driven by official Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observational data confirming the pre-dawn minimum at that exact mark amid stable high-pressure conditions and light westerly winds that limited radiative cooling. Hourly readings from KMA stations show temperatures bottoming out around 5-6 a.m. local time before steady diurnal warming under mostly clear skies, aligning precisely with short-range forecast models like those from ECMWF and KMA's own systems. This positioning reflects early May climatology, where Seoul's average lows hover 11-13°C, with no active cold air masses or frontal boundaries in play. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-night surge in northerly outflow or sudden clear-sky cooling, but residual daytime heat and increasing cloudiness make sub-12°C readings highly unlikely as the day progresses toward resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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