Skip to main content
icon for Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Politics·Prediction Markets

Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?

icon for Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Politics·Prediction Markets

Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?

11% chance
Polymarket

$10,248 Vol.

11% chance
Polymarket

$10,248 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 89% implied probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, driven by stalled bipartisan legislation despite a March flurry of introductions, including Sens. Curtis (R-UT) and Schiff (D-CA)'s Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act prohibiting CFTC-approved sports event contracts and Sens. Merkley (D-OR) and Rep. Raskin's (D-MD) broader STOP Corrupt Bets Act targeting sports, elections, and military outcomes. None have advanced beyond committees amid CFTC withdrawal of event contract ban proposals in February, lawsuits preempting state gambling laws, and Trump administration support for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. State efforts, such as Minnesota's bill nearing Senate floor vote, face federal preemption hurdles, with divided Congress and filibuster risks limiting enactment prospects before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,248
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 89% implied probability against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, driven by stalled bipartisan legislation despite a March flurry of introductions, including Sens. Curtis (R-UT) and Schiff (D-CA)'s Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act prohibiting CFTC-approved sports event contracts and Sens. Merkley (D-OR) and Rep. Raskin's (D-MD) broader STOP Corrupt Bets Act targeting sports, elections, and military outcomes. None have advanced beyond committees amid CFTC withdrawal of event contract ban proposals in February, lawsuits preempting state gambling laws, and Trump administration support for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. State efforts, such as Minnesota's bill nearing Senate floor vote, face federal preemption hurdles, with divided Congress and filibuster risks limiting enactment prospects before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,248
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Related

icon for Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?

Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?

60%
icon for SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?

28%
icon for Over $140B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?

Over $140B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?

50%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 11% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 11¢, the market collectively assigns a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?" has generated $10.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?" is 11% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.