Ongoing litigation over CFTC jurisdiction for sports event contracts on prediction markets has created the primary driver for trader expectations. The Third Circuit’s April 2026 ruling found such contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and preempt state gambling laws, while conflicting lower-court decisions and ongoing Ninth Circuit appeals (oral arguments held April 16) heighten the chance of a circuit split. More than 30 states have filed amicus briefs emphasizing federalism concerns, and certiorari petitions could emerge as early as July 2026 if the Ninth Circuit diverges. No Supreme Court review has been granted to date, but the volume of parallel cases and institutional stakes make review by year-end a focal point for market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBetMGM CEO signals expectation of Supreme Court review on sports contracts dispute
On April 14, 2026, BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt publicly stated anticipation of an "almost inevitable" Supreme Court hearing on the dispute over federal preemption of state sports betting laws by prediction markets, reflecting industry expectations of eventual SCOTUS involvement.
Market consensus sees low probability of SCOTUS accepting sports event contract case by July 31
July 31 plunges to 8%23%
Market prices fell sharply in early June 2026, reflecting consensus that the Supreme Court is unlikely to grant certiorari on sports event contract cases by the July 31 deadline, given no official docket confirmation and ongoing appeals.
CFTC proposes new rules allowing sports event contracts with restrictions
July 31 rises to 25%1%
On June 10, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a notice of proposed rulemaking signaling it will allow sports event contracts under a structured regulatory framework, reflecting ongoing federal regulatory efforts amid legal disputes.
SCOTUS Denies AviaGames Certiorari on Arbitration Issues
July 31 dips to 9%1%
The denial of certiorari in a case involving sports event contract arbitration likely reduced market uncertainty, contributing to the price stabilization around the July 31 option.
Reuters notes SCOTUS certiorari window closing with low odds for sports‑event contract case
July 31 jumps to 12%5%
A Reuters briefing noted that the Court’s certiorari docket for the year was closing, with speculation that no major sports‑event contract case would be granted before the July deadline, causing the final drop in “Yes” odds.
Legal analysis highlights major-questions doctrine in sports gambling cases
July 31 jumps to 24%8%
Legal commentary discussed how the major-questions doctrine could influence Supreme Court scrutiny of the CFTC's regulatory authority over sports event contracts, indicating potential challenges to federal preemption and affecting certiorari prospects.
Parties indicate intent to seek Supreme Court review of Third Circuit decision on sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 10%6%
On June 1, 2026, court summaries revealed that defendants intend to petition the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit's decision regarding CFTC preemption of state gambling laws on sports event contracts. This announcement raised market optimism for a certiorari grant by July 31.
Analysts see 64% chance SCOTUS will decide on prediction‑market case by year‑end
No certiorari grant had been announced by early June; however, a Reuters summary noted that the odds of a SCOTUS grant by year‑end had risen to 64 %. The absence of a grant kept the “Yes” price low (8 % on 2026‑06‑05), reinforcing the market’s bearish view for the July 31 outcome.
Major‑Questions Doctrine could shift focus back to sports gambling in prediction‑market cases
July 31 dips to 7%2%
A Forbes piece argued that the major‑questions doctrine could limit the CFTC’s claim, reigniting speculation that the Supreme Court might reject certiorari. The coverage coincided with the market’s final slide to 7 % for the July‑31 outcome on June‑11.
CFTC chair emphasizes exclusive jurisdiction over sports contracts on TV
July 31 rises to 7%2%
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig discussed the agency’s authority over event contracts in a CNBC interview, emphasizing that “commodity” definitions include sports contracts. Media coverage reinforced expectations that the CFTC will defend its jurisdiction, tempering the market’s decline for the “July 31” outcome.
CFTC files amicus brief in Massachusetts case asserting exclusive jurisdiction
December 31 drops to 24%9%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court, reiterating its claim of exclusive jurisdiction. The filing reinforced the perception of a cohesive federal front, nudging the “December 31” market lower.
Market sentiment shifts to doubt Supreme Court will grant certiorari by July 31
July 31 plunges to 7%17%
By late May 2026, market prices dropped sharply reflecting skepticism about the Supreme Court granting certiorari by the July 31 deadline despite ongoing legal developments and potential circuit splits, indicating uncertainty about timing and likelihood of review.
Speculation That Ninth Circuit May Diverge From Third Circuit on Prediction‑Market Preemption
July 31 rises to 7%2%
Rumors surfaced that the Ninth Circuit expected to issue a decision contrary to the Third Circuit’s pre‑emptive view. Though no opinion was released by the analysis deadline, market participants priced in the possibility of a split, causing a brief rebound in “Yes” odds.
Tennessee files brief opposing Kalshi's federal preemption claim
Tennessee's Attorney General filed a brief arguing that Kalshi's sports event contracts are essentially sports gambling and should be regulated by states, highlighting ongoing legal contention and uncertainty ahead of Supreme Court action.
SCOTUS Denies AviaGames Certiorari on Arbitration Issues
July 31 drops to 14%10%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in a case involving AviaGames, a major player in sports event contracts, which may have reduced uncertainty about the regulatory landscape for such contracts.
Ninth Circuit Ruling Could Create Circuit Split on Sports Contract Preemption
A potential Ninth Circuit decision against Kalshi could create a circuit split with the Third Circuit's ruling, which would likely prompt a Supreme Court certiorari petition.
New Jersey seeks en banc rehearing of Kalshi case at Third Circuit
December 31 rises to 25%2%
New Jersey announced it would file an en banc petition to the full Third Circuit after the split decision, signaling a possible escalation to the Supreme Court. The filing nudged the “December 31” price slightly higher as market participants saw a fresh path to SCOTUS review.
Tennessee files brief opposing Kalshi's swap classification in Sixth Circuit
July 31 drops to 14%12%
Tennessee Attorney General filed a brief arguing Kalshi's sports event contracts are sports gambling, not swaps, challenging federal preemption claims. This added to the legal uncertainty and complexity, tempering market optimism for a quick Supreme Court review.
Tennessee files opening brief opposing Kalshi’s swap classification in Sixth Circuit
July 31 drops to 4%10%
Tennessee Attorney General filed a brief arguing that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are sports gambling, not swaps, opposing federal preemption claims and highlighting ongoing legal fragmentation that may prompt Supreme Court intervention.
Tennessee Attorney General challenges Kalshi’s classification of sports bets as swaps
July 31 drops to 6%8%
On May 27, 2026, Tennessee’s Attorney General filed briefs arguing that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are effectively sports gambling, not swaps, highlighting ongoing state opposition and legal uncertainty that dampened market optimism for a certiorari grant by July 31.
Supreme Court denies certiorari in unrelated AviaGames arbitration case
July 31 dips to 6%1%
On May 27, 2026, the Supreme Court denied certiorari in an unrelated arbitration case involving AviaGames, signaling no immediate action on sports event contract cases and contributing to market declines in certiorari expectations.
Tennessee Attorney General files brief opposing Kalshi’s swap classification
July 31 dips to 9%4%
On May 27, 2026, Tennessee’s Attorney General filed a brief arguing that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are sports gambling, not swaps, emphasizing state opposition to federal preemption and complicating the legal landscape ahead of potential Supreme Court review.
SCOTUS denies certiorari on unrelated arbitration case, leaving sports contract case unresolved
July 31 dips to 5%2%
On May 27, 2026, the Supreme Court denied certiorari in an arbitration-related case, signaling no immediate action on the sports event contract cases. This denial tempered market expectations for a near-term certiorari grant but did not rule out future review.
Kalshi Prediction Market Case Sparks Supreme Court Interest
July 31 jumps to 16%12%
A tweet from May 27, 2026, highlighted the Supreme Court's potential role in resolving whether sports event contracts count as 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act and whether federal preemption applies, triggering market price movement.
Supreme Court to Consider Prediction Market Case
July 31 jumps to 16%12%
A tweet from May 27, 2026, confirmed the Supreme Court was being asked to rule on whether a state has the right to ban sports event contract trading on prediction markets, influencing market expectations.
Kalshi v. Flaherty case highlights CEA and preemption questions
July 31 dips to 5%1%
The Third Circuit case raised key legal questions about whether sports event contracts count as 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act and whether federal law preempts state gambling regulations.
Tennessee brief argues Kalshi sports contracts are gambling
July 31 dips to 6%1%
Tennessee filed its opening brief in the Sixth Circuit arguing that Kalshi's sports event contracts are gambling, highlighting the CEA preemption and 'swaps' classification issues central to the market's criteria.
SCOTUS denies certiorari in unrelated arbitration case, no sports contract case granted
July 31 drops to 31%10%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in an unrelated arbitration case, signaling no immediate grant for sports event contract cases. This contributed to declining market confidence in a certiorari grant by July 31.
New Jersey Seeks Supreme Court Review of Kalshi Case
July 31 jumps to 16%12%
After defeats in lower courts, New Jersey announced its intent to bring the Kalshi lawsuit to the Supreme Court, signaling the case was nearing its final legal stage.
SCOTUS Denies Certiorari on Unrelated Arbitration Case
December 31 drops to 27%10%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari on an unrelated arbitration case, signaling no immediate action on sports event contract cases and contributing to market declines.
Tennessee files 6th Circuit brief opposing Kalshi's federal preemption claim
July 31 drops to 16%12%
Tennessee Attorney General filed a brief arguing that Kalshi's sports event contracts are sports gambling subject to state regulation, challenging Kalshi's claim of exclusive federal jurisdiction. This added to the legal uncertainty and reduced market confidence in a July 31 Supreme Court grant.
New Jersey petitions Third Circuit for en banc rehearing of Kalshi case
July 31 rises to 32%2%
New Jersey filed a petition for en banc rehearing of the Third Circuit decision. Though the petition had not yet been decided, speculation about a possible Supreme Court petition caused a brief rise in the “July 31” market.
Supreme Court conference scheduled to consider certiorari petitions including prediction market cases
July 31 jumps to 10%5%
The Supreme Court distributed orders for its June 11, 2026 conference, where it will consider petitions for certiorari including those related to prediction markets. This heightened market focus on a potential certiorari grant in the near term.
U.S. Supreme Court denies certiorari in NFL arbitration clause case, signaling cautious approach
December 31 dips to 24%4%
While unrelated directly to sports event contracts, the Supreme Court's denial of certiorari in a high-profile sports arbitration case on May 26, 2026, suggested a cautious approach to sports-related legal issues, possibly influencing market sentiment about the timing of certiorari grants in the prediction market cases.
Massachusetts Attorney General sues Kalshi for illegal sports wagering
July 31 plunges to 40%19%
Massachusetts AG Andrea Campbell filed a lawsuit against Kalshi alleging it operates an illegal sports wagering business without a license, intensifying regulatory pressure and legal uncertainty around sports event contracts. This lawsuit contributed to market volatility and skepticism about a timely Supreme Court certiorari grant.
Supreme Court asked to consider state authority to ban sports event contracts on prediction markets
July 31 plunges to 11%17%
By late May 2026, the Supreme Court was publicly reported to be asked to rule on whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting ongoing litigation and increasing market speculation about certiorari.
Parties request stay pending Supreme Court decision on certiorari in Kalshi case
December 31 dips to 24%4%
In a joint status report, parties requested the court to stay proceedings pending the Supreme Court's decision to grant or deny certiorari in the Kalshi case, signaling anticipation of SCOTUS review but no confirmation yet, causing market uncertainty.
Supreme Court poised to hear case on state regulation of prediction‑market sports contracts
December 31 plunges to 19%31%
Casino.org reported that the Supreme Court is expected to hear a case on whether states can regulate prediction‑market sports contracts, explicitly mentioning a petition for certiorari. The story resurfaced the market’s focus on a December‑31 deadline and pushed the “December 31” odds down from 50% to the mid‑teens.
Industry reports Supreme Court may consider state authority to ban sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 18%6%
Reports emerged that the Supreme Court might address whether states can ban sports event trading on federally regulated prediction markets, fueling speculation about certiorari and causing some price fluctuations.
Supreme Court likely to field prediction‑market case but not before fall
July 31 drops to 5%8%
A Casino.org article highlighted that the Supreme Court was expected to field a prediction‑market case, but noted that certiorari decisions are usually announced in September‑October, tempering expectations for a July grant and further depressing the “Yes” price.
Reports indicate Supreme Court likely to consider sports event contract regulation case
July 31 dips to 11%3%
Legal analysts and industry reports suggest the Supreme Court is expected to take up a case concerning the regulatory authority over sports event contracts due to the circuit split and significant national impact, though no certiorari grant was confirmed by this date.
Supreme Court likely to consider whether states can regulate prediction markets
July 31 drops to 26%5%
Reports indicated the U.S. Supreme Court was being asked to decide if states have the authority to ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, with New Jersey's case against Kalshi as a focal point. This increased market attention on a potential certiorari grant.
Supreme Court petition filed on state authority to ban sports event contracts
By May 22, 2026, the Supreme Court was formally asked to consider whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, specifically involving New Jersey and Kalshi. This filing confirmed the case's presence on SCOTUS docket but no grant yet.
Supreme Court likely to consider state authority to ban sports event contracts on prediction markets
December 31 drops to 28%9%
Reports indicated that the U.S. Supreme Court might be asked to decide whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting the high-profile nature of the dispute and increasing market speculation about certiorari grants.
Supreme Court will field case about whether states can regulate prediction markets
An article reported that the Supreme Court was expected to field a case on prediction‑market regulation, reigniting speculation that certiorari could be granted before the July deadline. The news nudged the July 31 “Yes” price up modestly from about 6 % on 2026‑04‑30 to 6 % on 2026‑05‑07 (no measurable jump, but it halted the previous decline).
Analysts note SCOTUS will release October certiorari list in early October
December 31 rises to 26%2%
Multiple news outlets reported that the Supreme Court was expected to announce its October certiorari list in early October, reminding traders that any grant would have to appear then. The reminder caused a brief uptick in the Yes price for the December‑31 outcome, but the overall trend stayed down for July‑31.
Ninth Circuit Denies Stays for Kalshi and Polymarket in State Gambling Disputes
July 31 rises to 7%3%
The Ninth Circuit denied stays to the platforms, allowing state-level enforcement to proceed in Nevada and Washington, which deepened the legal divide and increased the likelihood of a circuit split.
New Jersey petitions Supreme Court to hear sports‑event contract case
December 31 surges to 62%26%
New Jersey formally filed a petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court, seeking review of the Third Circuit’s preemption ruling. The filing revived expectations that the Court might grant review before the July 31 deadline, pushing the “December 31” price up sharply.
Kalshi and New Jersey request stay of proceedings pending Supreme Court certiorari decision
Kalshi and New Jersey jointly requested the Third Circuit to stay all proceedings pending the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to grant or deny certiorari in the case concerning sports event contracts. This filing publicly confirmed that a certiorari petition was imminent, reflecting high market anticipation of Supreme Court review by the July 31 deadline.
Supreme Court likely to decide on state regulation of prediction markets soon
July 31 rises to 7%2%
On May 22, 2026, reports indicated that the Supreme Court might soon decide whether states can regulate sports event contracts on prediction markets, reflecting ongoing litigation and the anticipation of certiorari, which influenced market prices downward due to uncertainty about timing.
Reports indicate Supreme Court may consider state authority to ban sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 41%9%
Media reports surfaced that the Supreme Court might review whether states can ban sports event contracts on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting ongoing legal uncertainty and increasing market speculation about certiorari.
Supreme Court may decide on state authority to regulate prediction markets
Reports indicated the Supreme Court might soon decide whether states can regulate sports event contracts on prediction markets, reflecting growing anticipation of certiorari. This news influenced market sentiment about the timing and likelihood of Supreme Court review by July 31, 2026.
Supreme Court to Stay Proceedings Pending Certiorari Decision
The parties requested that the Supreme Court continue to stay proceedings pending any decision by the Court to grant or deny certiorari, confirming the Court's potential role in resolving the federal versus state authority question.
Supreme Court to field case on state authority over sports‑event contracts
July 31 drops to 13%11%
Casino.org reported that the Supreme Court will hear a case on whether states can ban sports‑event contracts, confirming that a petition had been filed and setting a concrete timeline for a possible certiorari grant before July 31. The news caused the “July 31” probability to bounce up briefly before falling as analysts gauged the low odds of a fast grant.
SCOTUS to consider state ban on sports event contracts at Kalshi
July 31 rises to 5%1%
The Supreme Court agreed to hear a case challenging whether states can ban sports event contracts on federally regulated prediction markets, directly addressing the market's three qualifying legal issues.
No SCOTUS certiorari grant announced as July deadline approaches
July 31 drops to 5%8%
Multiple news sites reported that the Supreme Court had not yet granted certiorari but that petitions were expected in early July, reinforcing market expectations that the deadline was approaching without a grant and pushing the “No” (July 31) probability higher.
Senate subcommittee hears testimony on prediction‑market regulation
December 31 drops to 27%6%
A Senate subcommittee held a hearing on prediction‑market regulation, with testimony from the American Gaming Association arguing that the contracts are unregulated gambling. Media coverage raised public awareness and nudged the market slightly lower.
Supreme Court asked to rule on state authority to ban sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 24%9%
By late May 2026, the Supreme Court was formally asked to decide whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, notably involving New Jersey and Kalshi, signaling an imminent certiorari petition.
Supreme Court to consider state authority to ban sports event contracts on prediction markets
July 31 rises to 7%3%
The Supreme Court agreed to hear a case on whether states can ban sports event contracts on federally regulated prediction markets, directly addressing one of the three qualifying case criteria.
Supreme Court expected to consider whether states can regulate sports event contracts on prediction markets
July 31 drops to 28%9%
Legal analysts and industry observers noted that the Supreme Court is likely to be asked to rule on the federal-state regulatory conflict over sports event contracts, with the Roberts Court's stance on states' rights and federal preemption making the case particularly significant. This anticipation influenced market expectations for certiorari.
Supreme Court asked to rule on state authority to ban sports event contracts on prediction markets
December 31 drops to 27%10%
By May 22, 2026, the Supreme Court was formally asked to consider whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, notably involving New Jersey and Kalshi. This development reflected growing momentum toward potential Supreme Court review.
Senate subcommittee hears testimony on sports event contract trading as unregulated sports gambling
July 31 drops to 17%6%
The American Gaming Association testified before a Senate subcommittee that sports event contract trading is unregulated sports gambling, highlighting the controversy and regulatory uncertainty that may prompt Supreme Court involvement.
Supreme Court petition filed by New Jersey seeking review of Kalshi sports event contract case
July 31 dips to 14%2%
Following adverse rulings in district and appellate courts, New Jersey filed a petition for Supreme Court review challenging the federal preemption of state gambling laws over sports event contracts, increasing market speculation about certiorari.
Reports emerge that Supreme Court may hear case on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 14%1%
On May 22, 2026, credible reports indicated the U.S. Supreme Court was being asked to decide whether states can ban sports event contract trading on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting growing legal and industry attention and fueling market speculation.
Gaming industry voices opposition to sports event contract trading, citing unregulated sports gambling concerns
July 31 drops to 24%9%
On May 22, 2026, the American Gaming Association testified before a Senate subcommittee expressing that sports event contract trading is unregulated sports gambling, highlighting the contentious regulatory environment and increasing pressure for judicial resolution.
CFTC intervenes in Rhode Island lawsuit to block state gambling law enforcement on prediction markets
July 31 jumps to 31%7%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission moved to intervene in a Rhode Island lawsuit to prevent the state from applying gambling laws to CFTC-registered prediction markets, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act. This federal action underscored the ongoing regulatory conflict and increased speculation about Supreme Court involvement.
New Jersey signals intent to petition Supreme Court after appellate setbacks
July 31 drops to 31%7%
On May 22, 2026, New Jersey indicated plans to petition the Supreme Court following losses in district and appellate courts, increasing market speculation about a certiorari grant before July 31, 2026.
Senate subcommittee hears AGA testimony on prediction‑market regulation
December 31 drops to 45%10%
During a Senate subcommittee hearing, the AGA testified that sports‑event contract trading is effectively unregulated sports gambling, fueling media discussion and nudging the “December 31” market down as traders saw increased political pressure.
SCOTUS to Rule on State Authority to Ban Sports Event Contracts
The Supreme Court will be asked to decide whether a state has the right to ban sports event contract trading on prediction markets, following New Jersey's lawsuit against Kalshi.
Industry reports anticipate Supreme Court consideration of sports event contract regulation
On May 22, 2026, industry news highlighted the possibility that the Supreme Court might consider whether states can ban sports event contracts on federally regulated prediction markets, reflecting ongoing market speculation about certiorari.
Parties request stay pending Supreme Court certiorari decision
July 31 dips to 7%1%
In ongoing litigation, parties jointly requested the court to stay proceedings pending the Supreme Court's decision on whether to grant certiorari, signaling anticipation of Supreme Court involvement and affecting market expectations.
Parties request stay of proceedings pending Supreme Court certiorari decision
In ongoing litigation over sports event contracts, parties jointly requested the court to stay proceedings pending the Supreme Court's decision on whether to grant certiorari. This indicated anticipation of Supreme Court review and influenced market expectations for a certiorari grant by July 31, 2026.
Better Markets criticizes CFTC's regulatory approach to sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 8%4%
Better Markets issued a statement arguing that the Supreme Court left sports betting regulation to the states, not the CFTC, challenging the federal regulatory claims of prediction markets. This added to the legal debate but did not directly affect certiorari likelihood, contributing to market uncertainty.
New Jersey announces intent to take Kalshi case to the Supreme Court
July 31 rises to 7%1%
New Jersey publicly declared its intention to appeal the Third Circuit decision to the U.S. Supreme Court, reinforcing the expectation that the high court will consider the case. This announcement contributed to market price movements reflecting increased likelihood of certiorari.
New Jersey seeks en banc rehearing of Third Circuit Kalshi pre‑emption ruling
December 31 rises to 27%3%
New Jersey filed a petition for en banc rehearing of the Third‑Circuit decision. Though the petition’s outcome was pending, the filing briefly lifted optimism for a Supreme Court grant, causing the “December 31” price to edge up from 24 % (2026‑05‑15) to 27 % (2026‑05‑23).
CFTC sues Minnesota to block state ban on prediction markets
July 31 rises to 10%3%
The CFTC filed a lawsuit against Minnesota on May 19, 2026, challenging a new state law banning prediction markets, marking the sixth such federal lawsuit against states seeking to regulate or prohibit CFTC-registered prediction markets. This escalated the federal-state conflict and increased expectations of Supreme Court involvement.
No Supreme Court certiorari granted on sports event contracts by mid-May
July 31 dips to 5%1%
By mid-May 2026, no public confirmation of Supreme Court certiorari grants on sports event contract cases had appeared on the official docket or credible legal reporting, reducing market confidence in a July 31 grant.
SCOTUS denies certiorari on unrelated arbitration case involving AviaGames
December 31 drops to 24%9%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari on an arbitration case unrelated to sports event contracts, indicating no immediate SCOTUS action on the sports contracts issue and contributing to market declines in certiorari likelihood.
Supreme Court maintains status quo on abortion pill access, no sports contract case cert granted
The Supreme Court issued an order on a high-profile abortion pill case but did not grant certiorari on any sports event contract cases. This absence of cert grants on sports contracts by mid-May 2026 aligns with the market's low probability pricing for a July 31 cert grant.
New Jersey and Kalshi request stay of proceedings pending Supreme Court decision
July 31 drops to 6%7%
Following the Third Circuit ruling, New Jersey and Kalshi jointly requested the court to stay all proceedings pending the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to grant or deny certiorari. This filing indicates both parties anticipate Supreme Court review within the analysis window.
Forbes: Third Circuit sides with Kalshi, but a Ninth Circuit split could push SCOTUS review
December 31 plunges to 13%15%
A Forbes analysis titled “A Swap By Any Other Name” dissected the Third Circuit’s decision and warned that a divergent Ninth Circuit opinion could trigger Supreme Court review. The article’s recirculation coincided with the market’s sharp drop to 13 % on May‑8 for the December‑31 outcome.
Senator Adam Schiff intensifies push for federal ban on sports prediction market contracts
July 31 dips to 4%2%
Senator Schiff criticized the CFTC chair and advocated for legislation to prohibit CFTC-registered platforms from offering sports event contracts, aiming to return regulatory authority to states. This legislative pressure added uncertainty to the market's outlook on federal preemption.
Third Circuit sides with Kalshi, strengthening pre‑emption argument
December 31 jumps to 57%12%
Forbes reported that the Third Circuit’s decision was upheld, reinforcing the pre‑emption view and prompting a brief rally in “Yes” odds as traders expected a stronger case for SCOTUS review.
Legal analyst predicts Supreme Court unlikely to grant certiorari on sports‑event contract case
December 31 plunges to 14%19%
A widely‑cited legal commentary argued that the Court’s recent docket shows no appetite for taking up CFTC‑state preemption disputes, reinforcing the market’s bearish trend.
Legal experts predict Supreme Court will await circuit split before granting certiorari
July 31 drops to 5%5%
Legal analysis indicated that the Supreme Court is unlikely to grant certiorari on sports event contract cases until a clear circuit split emerges, with the Ninth Circuit and Fourth Circuit decisions pending. This tempered market expectations for a July 31, 2026 certiorari grant.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 drops to 4%5%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market operator, citing federal Commodity Exchange Act preemption. This ruling highlighted ongoing legal disputes over regulation of event contracts but did not involve Supreme Court certiorari.
Supreme Court declines to intervene in National Guard deployment case
December 31 drops to 13%14%
The Supreme Court's refusal to allow the Trump administration to deploy National Guard troops in Chicago signaled a rare setback for the administration's executive power agenda, dampening expectations for aggressive SCOTUS intervention in other areas.
Fourth Circuit hears oral arguments in Maryland case on CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
The Fourth Circuit heard arguments in a case concerning whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws in Maryland. This case adds to the growing number of conflicting appellate decisions, contributing to the potential for Supreme Court intervention.
Arizona judge blocks state gambling action against Kalshi
July 31 dips to 10%4%
A federal judge in Arizona issued a preliminary injunction blocking the state from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, echoing the Third Circuit’s federal‑preemption reasoning. The news reinforced expectations that courts would keep siding with Kalshi, further pushing the July 31 probability down to 10 % by early May.
Kalshi reports record Super Bowl trading volume, faces processing delays
December 31 drops to 14%14%
Kalshi disclosed a $1 billion‑plus trading volume on Super Bowl contracts, but also noted deposit processing issues. The mixed news sparked a brief rally followed by a sell‑off as traders worried about operational risks and regulatory scrutiny.
Federal judge blocks Arizona gambling enforcement against Kalshi in major ruling
July 31 surges to 59%28%
A federal judge in Arizona issued a preliminary injunction blocking state officials from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, ruling that federal commodities law likely preempts state gambling regulations for CFTC-regulated event contracts. This ruling reinforced the federal preemption argument and supported market expectations for Supreme Court review.
Federal judge permanently blocks Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi on preemption grounds
December 31 jumps to 56%14%
A federal judge issued a permanent injunction barring Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws, affirming that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over derivatives exchanges. This ruling was a significant win for the CFTC and Kalshi, reinforcing federal preemption and impacting market expectations positively.
Kalshi settles dispute over Cardi B’s Super Bowl halftime show performance in prediction market
July 31 drops to 14%14%
Kalshi resolved a dispute about whether Cardi B’s cameo counted as a performance in a Super Bowl halftime show prediction market, returning money to users due to ambiguity. This event highlighted regulatory and operational challenges but was unrelated to Supreme Court certiorari on sports contracts.
Massachusetts high court grills Kalshi on whether its sports contracts are gambling
July 31 plunges to 10%21%
Oral arguments in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court showed justices skeptical of Kalshi’s claim that its contracts are swaps, prompting a steep drop in the "July 31" probability as market participants feared a state‑court defeat could deter a Supreme Court review.
Massachusetts Supreme Court signals possible loss for Kalshi in sports‑contract case
July 31 dips to 10%4%
Oral arguments in Massachusetts highlighted skeptical judges questioning whether Kalshi’s contracts are distinct from traditional sports betting. The negative tone spurred a further decline in the July 31 probability, dropping to 10 % by May 10.
Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court questions whether Kalshi’s sports contracts are swaps or bets
December 31 plunges to 37%23%
During oral arguments, justices queried whether Kalshi’s sports-event contracts qualify as swaps under federal law or as bets subject to state regulation. This highlighted ongoing legal uncertainty and the contested nature of federal preemption claims, contributing to market volatility and uncertainty about Supreme Court timing.
Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court appears poised to uphold state ban on Kalshi sports betting
The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court showed skepticism toward Kalshi's argument that federal law preempts state gambling regulation, indicating states' rights to regulate sports betting. This added to the legal uncertainty and suggested ongoing state-level resistance despite federal rulings.
Massachusetts court probes whether Kalshi’s sports contracts are swaps or bets
July 31 plunges to 12%22%
Massachusetts’ highest court questioned whether Kalshi’s sports contracts are swaps or bets. The hearing underscored the emerging split among state courts, nudging the market lower as the chance of a cohesive Supreme Court petition seemed more remote.
Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court hears arguments skeptical of Kalshi's federal preemption claim
December 31 plunges to 33%28%
The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court questioned whether Kalshi's sports event contracts differ meaningfully from traditional sports wagers, signaling potential support for state authority to regulate or ban such contracts. This increased legal uncertainty and pressure on prediction markets in states.
Massachusetts High Court Considers Ban on Kalshi’s Sports‑Event Contracts
December 31 surges to 63%36%
The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court heard arguments on whether the state could ban Kalshi’s sports‑event contracts. The court’s apparent openness to upholding the ban revived concerns of a circuit split and gave a modest boost to “Yes” odds.
Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court hears arguments on Kalshi sports contracts
The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court heard arguments on whether Kalshi’s sports-related contracts are swaps under federal law or illegal gambling under state law, highlighting ongoing legal uncertainty and the potential for Supreme Court review.
Federal court allows Kalshi to continue offering sports event contracts during litigation
December 31 drops to 33%9%
A U.S. federal court ruled that Kalshi can continue offering sports event contracts while litigation proceeds, affirming the contracts as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. This decision maintained the status quo and influenced market perceptions of regulatory risk.
Federal judge denies Arizona's attempt to prosecute Kalshi under state gambling laws
July 31 dips to 14%2%
A federal judge's ruling that federal law preempts Arizona's gambling laws in the Kalshi case reinforced the CFTC's regulatory authority, reducing expectations that the Supreme Court would need to intervene on sports event contract legality.
Legal experts project Supreme Court review of prediction market sports contract cases by 2027
July 31 drops to 12%12%
Analysts noted the growing circuit split and conflicting appellate rulings increase the likelihood of Supreme Court certiorari by 2027, though no grant had yet occurred. This tempered market optimism for a 2026 resolution but confirmed the high stakes of the litigation.
Supreme Court likely to take prediction market case by 2027 amid circuit split
July 31 plunges to 7%20%
Legal experts noted the growing circuit split between the Third and Ninth Circuits on the regulation of sports event contracts, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review by mid-2027. This anticipation affected market pricing, reflecting expectations of eventual Supreme Court intervention to resolve federal-state regulatory conflicts.
CFTC comment period on event‑contract rulemaking ends
December 31 plunges to 28%18%
The CFTC’s comment deadline for its advance‑notice rulemaking on event contracts closed, with industry comments largely supporting a permissive stance. The closure of the comment period was interpreted as a signal that the agency might approve sports contracts, pushing the “December 31” market lower.
CFTC comment period closes on proposed rule governing sports‑related event contracts
December 31 rises to 27%3%
The CFTC’s public comment deadline for its proposed rule on “gaming” and “sports‑competition” event contracts closed, signalling that the agency might tighten or loosen the regulatory regime. The imminent deadline spurred a small rebound in the “December 31” price from 24 % (2026‑04‑28) to 27 % (2026‑05‑03).
CFTC files amicus brief at Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive jurisdiction
July 31 dips to 24%4%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court confirming its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, including sports event contracts, while 38 state attorneys general filed opposing briefs. This highlighted the intensifying federal-state conflict and kept market uncertainty high.
38 state AGs oppose CFTC amicus brief in Massachusetts prediction‑market case
A coalition of 38 state AGs filed a brief opposing the CFTC’s amicus brief in Massachusetts, intensifying the federal‑state battle and contributing to the market’s continued decline for both outcomes (prices held near 24 % for December 31 and 12 % for July 31).
38 State Attorneys General oppose Kalshi in Massachusetts lawsuit over sports betting
December 31 plunges to 42%25%
A coalition of 38 state attorneys general filed a brief opposing Kalshi's position in the Massachusetts lawsuit, arguing against federal preemption and supporting state regulation of sports event contracts. This opposition underscored the federal-state conflict and the potential need for Supreme Court resolution.
38 State Attorneys General oppose Kalshi as CFTC asserts exclusive jurisdiction
July 31 drops to 37%9%
A coalition of 38 state attorneys general filed a brief opposing Kalshi's position, while the CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting federal preemption, highlighting the contentious legal battle and increasing uncertainty about Supreme Court review.
CFTC files amicus brief affirming exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in Massachusetts case
December 31 plunges to 42%25%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting its exclusive jurisdiction over commodity derivatives markets, including sports event contracts. This federal assertion intensified the regulatory dispute and highlighted the likelihood of eventual Supreme Court involvement.
BetMGM CEO anticipates Supreme Court hearing on sports contracts case
December 31 surges to 50%38%
On April 28, 2026, BetMGM's CEO publicly stated expectations for an 'almost inevitable' Supreme Court hearing on the sports event contracts dispute, reflecting industry anticipation of a high court decision amid ongoing litigation.
CFTC files amicus brief in Massachusetts court as 38 states push back on prediction markets
December 31 drops to 33%9%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief asserting exclusive jurisdiction over prediction‑market event contracts in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court, while 38 state AGs filed a counter‑brief. The flurry of filings added uncertainty and caused another dip in “Yes” odds.
CFTC and 38 states clash in Massachusetts over prediction‑market jurisdiction
July 31 plunges to 26%32%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction, while 38 state attorneys general filed a counter‑brief. The showdown amplified uncertainty and pushed the market sharply toward the “No” (July 31) outcome.
CFTC and DOJ sue New York to block state enforcement against prediction‑market platforms
July 31 drops to 12%10%
The CFTC and DOJ filed a joint lawsuit in New York seeking an injunction against New York’s enforcement of gambling laws targeting prediction‑market platforms. The filing signaled an aggressive federal stance and pushed the market’s “July 31” price down from 22 % (2026‑04‑22) to 12 % (2026‑04‑27).
Analysis highlights potential circuit split prompting SCOTUS review
December 31 drops to 17%11%
On April 24, 2026, legal analysis noted that conflicting appellate rulings on federal preemption of state gambling laws by the Commodity Exchange Act could lead to Supreme Court certiorari, reflecting increased market speculation for a "Yes" outcome by year-end but less so by July 31.
CFTC files amicus brief asserting exclusive jurisdiction in Massachusetts case
July 31 jumps to 69%13%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over Kalshi and all CFTC-regulated prediction markets, opposing state-level injunctions. This highlighted the federal-state regulatory conflict and increased the chance of Supreme Court involvement.
Legal analysis highlights potential circuit split increasing odds of SCOTUS review
July 31 jumps to 28%10%
Legal commentary noted the Third Circuit's ruling preempting state laws and the contrasting Ninth Circuit cases, emphasizing that a circuit split on federal preemption of sports event contracts would likely lead to Supreme Court certiorari.
Legal analysts highlight circuit split increasing odds of Supreme Court review
December 31 rises to 59%4%
Legal commentary noted the growing circuit split between the Third and Ninth Circuits on sports event contracts, suggesting this division makes Supreme Court certiorari more likely. Market odds for a December 31 certiorari grant rose accordingly.
CFTC files lawsuits against states to reaffirm exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 60%5%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to event contracts offered on designated contract markets. This federal action underscored the CFTC's position and increased the stakes of the legal battle, influencing market expectations for Supreme Court involvement.
Market analysis highlights potential for Supreme Court certiorari amid circuit split
July 31 plunges to 12%25%
Legal analysts noted that the ongoing appellate disputes and potential circuit split on sports event contracts regulation make Supreme Court review likely, with odds rising for certiorari by year-end and some chance by July 31.
Analysis highlights potential circuit split increasing odds of Supreme Court review
An April 24, 2026 analysis noted that the Third Circuit's ruling favoring Kalshi and the Ninth Circuit's opposing stance could create a circuit split, a key factor that raises the likelihood of Supreme Court certiorari. Market odds reflected increased speculation about a Supreme Court case by year-end.
38 State Attorneys General oppose Kalshi as CFTC files amicus brief asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction
A coalition of 38 state attorneys general filed a brief opposing Kalshi's position, while the CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets. This highlights the intense legal conflict and the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement to resolve the dispute.
CFTC files amicus brief as 38 states push back in Massachusetts case
July 31 drops to 13%10%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive jurisdiction, while 38 state AGs filed a contrary brief. The media spotlight on the massive state‑federal clash dampened optimism that the Supreme Court would intervene quickly, further pushing the “Yes” price down.
CFTC amicus brief and 38 AGs’ counter‑brief spotlight growing split over prediction markets
July 31 dips to 11%3%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction, while 38 state AGs filed a counter‑brief. The intensifying legal battle signaled a widening split and further lowered confidence that the Supreme Court would take the case by July 31.
CFTC files amicus brief in Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction
July 31 drops to 28%10%
The CFTC filed an amicus brief supporting its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in a Massachusetts case, opposing state attempts to regulate or prohibit sports event contracts. This federal assertion further highlighted the regulatory conflict and the need for Supreme Court resolution.
NFL requests prediction market operators remove objectionable sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 44%17%
Following the Third Circuit ruling, the NFL formally requested that prediction market operators remove contracts considered objectionable, including player-performance props and injury-related markets, highlighting ongoing industry resistance and regulatory challenges that could influence Supreme Court interest.
Federal court allows Kalshi to continue offering sports event contracts during litigation
July 31 drops to 56%14%
A federal court ruled that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, allowing the platform to continue operations despite ongoing litigation. This ruling reinforced the federal regulatory framework and affected market expectations about the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC files lawsuits against states to reaffirm exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets
July 31 drops to 5%7%
In April 2026, the CFTC sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to challenge state actions against CFTC-registered designated contract markets, reinforcing federal authority and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement to resolve jurisdictional conflicts.
Supreme Court adds Kalshi-related cases to 2026-27 docket
December 31 plunges to 24%26%
The Supreme Court added two cases related to Kalshi and sports event contracts to its docket for the 2026-27 term, signaling potential future review though no certiorari grant was yet announced. This development influenced market expectations about eventual Supreme Court involvement.
NFL urges prediction‑market operators to drop controversial sports contracts
December 31 drops to 33%13%
The NFL publicly asked prediction‑market platforms to remove “objectionable” sports contracts. The request raised concerns about future regulatory restrictions, contributing to a dip in the “December 31” market later in April.
Report highlights likelihood of Supreme Court review amid circuit split
July 31 drops to 16%11%
Legal analysts and industry experts noted that a circuit split between the Third and Ninth Circuits on the regulation of sports event contracts could prompt the Supreme Court to grant certiorari. This analysis influenced market sentiment about the timing and probability of Supreme Court intervention.
Supreme Court hears arguments on unrelated sports‑law case, fueling speculation on related certiorari request
July 31 dips to 11%2%
While the Court debated transgender‑athlete bans, observers noted the similarity to the sports‑contract regulatory issue, prompting traders to further downgrade the likelihood of a certiorari grant.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig announces reversal of prior ban on sports event contracts
December 31 surges to 60%15%
The CFTC withdrew its 2024 proposed rule banning political betting and a 2025 advisory that clouded the legality of sports event contracts, signaling a regulatory shift favoring federal oversight and innovation in event contracts. This policy pivot influenced market perceptions of federal regulatory support.
Ninth Circuit hears consolidated appeals challenging CFTC jurisdiction over sports contracts
December 31 plunges to 55%17%
The Ninth Circuit heard arguments in cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com against Nevada's gaming control board. The court expressed skepticism about the claim that sports-related contracts are swaps under the CEA, signaling a potential circuit split with the Third Circuit's ruling, which would increase the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit to hear consolidated oral arguments on sports event contracts
The Ninth Circuit scheduled consolidated oral arguments for April 16, 2026, in cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com concerning the regulation of sports event contracts. The outcome could create a circuit split, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears consolidated arguments on federal preemption of state gambling laws
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments in cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, addressing whether federal CFTC authority preempts state gambling laws over sports event contracts. The potential for a circuit split heightened speculation about Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears Nevada cases, signals split on sports‑event contract jurisdiction
July 31 drops to 20%7%
The Ninth Circuit heard arguments in Nevada cases and expressed skepticism that sports‑event contracts are swaps, suggesting a possible split with the Third Circuit. Analysts saw this as reducing the likelihood of a Supreme Court grant of certiorari by July, causing the market’s “Yes” price to tumble.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments on state regulation of sports contracts in Nevada
December 31 rises to 21%4%
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments in cases challenging Nevada's authority to regulate sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets. This proceeding heightened the possibility of a circuit split, increasing the chance of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears consolidated appeals on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 17%1%
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard arguments in cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com challenging state gaming authority over sports event contracts regulated by the CFTC. A differing ruling here could create a circuit split, increasing chances of Supreme Court certiorari.
Ninth Circuit hears oral arguments in cases challenging CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 48%7%
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard consolidated oral arguments involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com against Nevada's gaming control board, with the central question of whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws. A differing ruling here could create a circuit split, increasing chances of Supreme Court certiorari.
9th Circuit hears split‑case on sports‑event contracts vs. Nevada
July 31 plunges to 20%24%
The 9th Circuit heard arguments on whether sports‑event contracts are swaps, a case that could produce a contrary ruling to the 3rd Circuit. Media coverage of the hearing highlighted the risk of a circuit split, which historically raises the odds of Supreme Court review; after the hearing the market’s “Yes” price fell from 44 % to 20 % (by 2026‑04‑21).
Ninth Circuit hears Kalshi arguments on Nevada enforcement challenge
July 31 drops to 20%7%
The Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments on Kalshi’s challenge to Nevada’s enforcement actions. Media coverage of the hearing highlighted the growing appellate split, which further depressed the market’s July‑31 probability.
Ninth Circuit Begins Hearing Kalshi Sports Contract Cases
July 31 plunges to 5%22%
The Ninth Circuit started hearing arguments in Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood cases challenging Nevada's ban on sports event contracts, potentially creating a circuit split that could prompt Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit to Hear Oral Arguments in Sports Event Contract Cases
The Ninth Circuit scheduled consolidated oral arguments on April 16, 2026, in cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com, with the panel expected to rule on whether the Commodity Exchange Act applies to sports-related event contracts traded on CFTC-licensed designated contract markets.
Ninth Circuit to hear consolidated oral arguments on Kalshi and related cases
December 31 rises to 67%3%
The Ninth Circuit scheduled oral arguments involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com on April 16, 2026, to address CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts. This raised the possibility of a circuit split, which could prompt Supreme Court review, influencing market prices.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments challenging federal preemption over Nevada sports contracts
December 31 jumps to 56%10%
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard appeals from Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood against Nevada's state gaming authority, with district courts having ruled against federal preemption. This case could create a circuit split with the Third Circuit, increasing chances of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments in parallel sports contract cases against Nevada
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments in cases challenging Nevada's authority to regulate sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets. This raised the prospect of a circuit split, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Ninth Circuit panel hears oral arguments on Nevada enforcement of state gambling laws against prediction markets
July 31 jumps to 24%8%
The Ninth Circuit heard appeals challenging Nevada's enforcement of state gambling laws against CFTC-regulated event contracts. This case could deepen the circuit split and increase the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention, impacting market expectations for certiorari.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments on CFTC preemption over state gaming laws
July 31 jumps to 56%12%
The Ninth Circuit heard consolidated oral arguments involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com challenging Nevada's state gaming authority over sports event contracts regulated by the CFTC. A differing outcome here could create a circuit split, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court certiorari.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments in cases challenging state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 16%20%
The Ninth Circuit heard consolidated appeals involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com challenging Nevada's state gaming authority over sports event contracts. The outcome could create a circuit split, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court certiorari.
Ninth Circuit hears consolidated oral arguments on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 16%11%
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments in cases involving Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com challenging state gambling laws, with the potential to create a circuit split that would increase the chances of Supreme Court intervention.
Ninth Circuit signals skepticism of Third Circuit's ruling on sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 33%14%
The Ninth Circuit, hearing consolidated cases involving Kalshi and others, expressed skepticism about the classification of sports-related contracts as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, creating a circuit split that increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Ninth Circuit hears Nevada appeal – potential split on sports‑contract preemption
December 31 surges to 58%20%
The Ninth Circuit began hearing arguments in a Nevada case that could diverge from the Third Circuit’s precedent. Media coverage of the possible circuit split raised expectations of a Supreme Court review, causing the December 31 probability to spike from 38 % to 58 % by late April.
US families contest Italian citizenship law in highest court, unrelated to sports contracts
December 31 plunges to 37%25%
Two US families challenged Italy's citizenship law in the Italian Supreme Court, a significant legal event but unrelated to US Supreme Court or sports event contracts. This event had no direct impact on the market for SCOTUS sports contract case acceptance.
Indian Gaming Association calls for congressional action against prediction markets
December 31 drops to 38%6%
Tribal gambling leaders expressed concern that prediction markets threaten their regulated gambling revenues and called on Congress to regulate these platforms. This highlighted ongoing legal and political challenges but did not indicate Supreme Court certiorari, contributing to market declines.
Prediction markets face lawsuits from states and tribes amid regulatory uncertainty
July 31 drops to 33%7%
Several states and tribal nations filed lawsuits against prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging illegal gambling operations. The ongoing litigation raised the prospect of Supreme Court involvement but no certiorari was granted during this period.
BetMGM CEO says Supreme Court hearing of prediction‑market case is ‘inevitable’
July 31 drops to 10%7%
BetMGM’s CEO Adam Greenblatt referenced an “inevitable” Supreme Court hearing on the predication‑market case during earnings calls, implying that the window for a July certiorari grant was closing, which contributed to the market’s slide.
BetMGM CEO says Supreme Court hearing of prediction‑market case is inevitable
December 31 jumps to 64%13%
BetMGM’s CEO Adam Greenblatt referenced an “expedient outcome of the almost inevitable hearing” by the Supreme Court during an earnings call, underscoring industry expectations of a SCOTUS petition and nudging the “December 31” odds upward.
BetMGM CEO says SCOTUS hearing of sports‑contract case is inevitable
July 31 drops to 18%10%
BetMGM’s CEO referenced an “expedient outcome of the almost inevitable hearing” by the Supreme Court during earnings calls, reinforcing market sentiment that a SCOTUS hearing was likely but not imminent, contributing to modest price fluctuations in early April.
Nevada court rejects Kalshi’s swap argument, upholds state gambling authority
July 31 dips to 10%2%
Nevada district court ruled against Kalshi, deeming its contracts non‑swaps and subject to state gambling law. The adverse ruling nudged the July 31 probability down a few points (from 12 % on Apr 10 to 10 % on Apr 26).
BetMGM CEO anticipates Supreme Court hearing on sports event contracts dispute
On April 14, 2026, BetMGM's CEO publicly expressed expectation of an imminent Supreme Court hearing on the pro-states rights and anti-prediction markets case, reflecting industry anticipation of a high court resolution amid ongoing litigation.
CFTC announces Innovation Advisory Committee to study prediction‑market regulation
July 31 drops to 7%6%
The creation of a high‑level advisory panel signaled ongoing federal commitment to overseeing prediction markets, further reducing speculation that the Supreme Court would intervene.
CFTC files friend‑of‑the‑court brief supporting Kalshi in Nevada case
July 31 drops to 8%5%
The CFTC submitted an amicus brief backing Kalshi’s appeal against a Nevada restraining order, emphasizing federal preemption of state gambling laws. Traders interpreted the filing as further solidifying federal jurisdiction, causing a modest price dip.
Federal court rulings affirm CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets
December 31 plunges to 37%27%
Federal courts upheld the CFTC's exclusive regulatory authority over event contracts, reinforcing the argument that state gambling laws are preempted. While this strengthened the federal position, no Supreme Court certiorari grant followed, leading to mixed market reactions.
Supreme Court hears arguments on state bans of transgender athletes, raising speculation on broader sports‑related jurisdictional issues
While not directly about prediction markets, the Court’s focus on state regulation of sports sparked speculation that related disputes—such as the status of sports‑event contracts—could soon appear before the Court, prompting another price decline.
Prediction markets face lawsuits from tribal nations over gambling law violations
December 31 plunges to 37%23%
Four tribal nations sued Kalshi and Robinhood, alleging violations of federal law and state-tribal compacts, highlighting the growing legal challenges prediction markets face and increasing uncertainty about Supreme Court action.
Federal judge rules event contracts fall under Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws
July 31 plunges to 10%23%
A federal judge ruled that event contracts offered by Kalshi are regulated as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, supporting the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction and preempting state gambling laws. This legal clarification reduced market expectations for Supreme Court involvement by July 31.
CFTC announces upcoming rule proposal targeting prediction markets as derivatives
July 31 drops to 7%6%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission signaled it will propose new rules classifying prediction‑market contracts as derivatives, further cementing federal oversight and diminishing hopes for a SCOTUS case on state regulation.
NCAA asks court to stop DraftKings from using trademarked terms
December 31 surges to 59%15%
The NCAA filed a complaint against DraftKings, highlighting the ongoing legal friction between sports organizations and betting platforms, which kept the broader topic of sports betting regulation in the public eye.
Third Circuit reaffirms preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi
December 31 jumps to 51%12%
The Third Circuit affirmed the preliminary injunction on April 7, confirming its earlier April 6 opinion. The reaffirmation reinforced expectations that the case would move toward SCOTUS, causing a brief spike in the Yes price for the December‑31 outcome before the later decline.
Federal appeals court blocks New Jersey from regulating Kalshi sports contracts
December 31 plunges to 19%31%
The US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit confirmed that oversight of Kalshi's sports-linked contracts falls solely under the CFTC, reinforcing federal preemption over state gambling laws. This ruling provided Kalshi with a crucial appellate precedent and increased the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement due to the emerging circuit split.
Third Circuit affirms CFTC pre‑emption of state gambling law in Kalshi sports‑event contract case
December 31 jumps to 55%11%
The Third Circuit issued a 2‑1 decision in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, holding that sports‑event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CEA preempts New Jersey gambling law. The ruling created the first appellate affirmation of federal pre‑emptive authority, prompting a sharp rise in the “December 31” outcome price from 44 % on 2026‑04‑02 to 55 % on 2026‑04‑09.
Third Circuit Issues Final Ruling in KalshiEX Case
December 31 jumps to 56%10%
The Third Circuit issued a decisive ruling in KalshiEX LLC v., reinforcing the legal arguments for federal preemption and increasing market anticipation of Supreme Court involvement.
Third Circuit rules that CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts, preempting New Jersey gambling laws
July 31 surges to 49%30%
A divided panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit held that sports event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated markets are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CEA preempts state gambling laws, affirming a preliminary injunction for Kalshi. This landmark ruling was the first federal appellate decision on the issue and significantly increased expectations for Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit rules Kalshi’s sports event contracts fall under exclusive federal CFTC jurisdiction
July 31 surges to 62%45%
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals issued a 2-1 decision affirming that Kalshi’s sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey’s state gambling laws. This ruling significantly increased market confidence that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari to resolve the circuit split.
Third Circuit affirms injunction favoring Kalshi in sports event contract case
December 31 surges to 51%32%
The Third Circuit's April 6, 2026 ruling held that sports event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated markets qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey gambling laws. This decision increased expectations for Supreme Court review, causing market price spikes.
Third Circuit Rules Federal Law Preempts New Jersey From Blocking Kalshi Sports Contracts
July 31 rises to 14%1%
In a landmark 2-1 decision, the Third Circuit ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws, handing Kalshi a massive victory and setting the stage for a potential Supreme Court appeal.
Third Circuit finds CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over Kalshi’s sports‑event contracts
December 31 jumps to 69%14%
The Third Circuit issued a 2‑1 decision affirming a preliminary injunction and holding that sports‑event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, pre‑empting New Jersey gambling law. The ruling sparked a sharp rise in “Yes” probability as traders saw a stronger chance of a circuit split leading to SCOTUS review.
Third Circuit holds CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 44%17%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit issued a 2-1 ruling affirming that Kalshi's sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal regulation preempts state gambling laws. This was the first federal appellate decision on the issue, increasing speculation about Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit rules CEA preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts
On April 6, 2026, the Third Circuit issued a landmark ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to sports-related event contracts traded on CFTC-licensed markets. This ruling increased expectations for Supreme Court review due to the potential for circuit splits.
Third Circuit affirms injunction protecting Kalshi’s sports event contracts from NJ gambling laws
July 31 surges to 62%34%
The Third Circuit ruled 2-1 on April 6, 2026, that Kalshi’s sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey’s gambling laws. This ruling increased expectations for Supreme Court review, as it created a strong federal preemption argument and set up a potential circuit split with other appellate courts.
Third Circuit backs Kalshi, says sports contracts are federally regulated swaps
July 31 drops to 20%6%
The Third Circuit ruled 2‑1 that Kalshi’s sports‑event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore fall under CFTC jurisdiction, preempting New Jersey’s gambling laws. The decision gave a strong federal win to the prediction‑market industry, prompting a sharp decline in market confidence that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari, driving the July 31 probability down from 26 % to 20 % in the following week.
Third Circuit rules New Jersey cannot block Kalshi sports‑event contracts
July 31 plunges to 11%23%
The Third Circuit issued a 2‑1 decision holding that Kalshi’s sports‑event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore fall under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction, blocking New Jersey from enforcing its gambling statutes. The ruling reinforced the federal‑preemption argument and drove the market’s sharp drop in July‑31 confidence that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari.
Third Circuit rules sports event contracts are swaps under CEA, preempting New Jersey gambling laws
December 31 surges to 72%22%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit affirmed a preliminary injunction for Kalshi, holding that sports event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated designated contract markets qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey gambling laws. This ruling was the first federal appellate decision on the issue and significantly increased expectations for Supreme Court review due to its federal preemption stance.
Third Circuit Ruling in KalshiEX v. Flaherty Affirms CFTC Preemption of Sports Event Contracts
The Third Circuit issued a landmark ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, No. 25-1922, becoming the first federal appellate court to hold that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to sports-related event contracts traded on CFTC-licensed designated contract markets.
Third Circuit rules in favor of Kalshi in sports event contracts case
December 31 surges to 66%25%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit issued a ruling supporting Kalshi, finding sports event contracts likely qualify as swaps and are preempted by federal regulation, increasing chances of SCOTUS review.
Third Circuit Court of Appeals affirms injunction blocking New Jersey from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi
December 31 jumps to 61%11%
The Third Circuit ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey's gambling restrictions and affirming federal jurisdiction. This was a major legal victory for Kalshi and the CFTC's position, boosting market optimism about federal preemption.
Third Circuit rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over Kalshi's sports event contracts
December 31 plunges to 19%31%
A divided panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit held that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports-related event contracts offered by Kalshi, preempting New Jersey's gambling laws. This was a landmark ruling increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit affirms ruling that sports event contracts are federally regulated swaps
July 31 drops to 7%9%
The Third Circuit issued a 2-1 ruling on April 6, 2026, affirming that Kalshi's sports event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws. This ruling increased expectations for Supreme Court certiorari but also introduced uncertainty due to potential circuit splits.
Third Circuit Court of Appeals rules New Jersey cannot block Kalshi sports swap contracts
July 31 surges to 57%41%
The Third Circuit ruled 2-1 that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and fall under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction, preempting New Jersey's gambling laws. This was a major legal victory for Kalshi and increased expectations for Supreme Court review due to the circuit split.
Third Circuit rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 72%55%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit issued a divided 2-1 ruling affirming a preliminary injunction that sports event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated designated contract markets qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey gambling laws. This was the first federal appellate court decision on the issue, significantly increasing the prospects for Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit finds CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over Kalshi’s sports‑event contracts
July 31 plunges to 4%23%
The Third Circuit issued a 2‑1 decision holding that sports‑event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC preempts New Jersey’s gambling statutes. The ruling raised the chance of a Supreme Court petition, causing the market’s “July 31” probability to fall sharply from the high‑70s to single‑digit levels.
New Jersey Attorney General announces review of Third Circuit ruling against state gambling enforcement
July 31 plunges to 41%16%
Following the Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi, New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport stated the state strongly disagrees and is considering legal options including seeking rehearing or Supreme Court certiorari, signaling potential escalation to the Supreme Court.
Third Circuit rules in favor of Kalshi in sports event contracts case
July 31 surges to 51%32%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled 2-1 that New Jersey cannot prohibit Kalshi from offering sports event contracts, emphasizing federal regulatory authority and increasing expectations of Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit affirms preliminary injunction, rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 62%43%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled 2-1 that sports event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated designated contract markets are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey's gambling laws. This landmark ruling increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review due to the federal-state regulatory conflict.
CFTC chair stresses exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts on TV
July 31 drops to 57%5%
Chair Selig publicly affirmed the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑related event contracts in a CNBC interview, reinforcing the regulatory narrative and causing a modest price dip (from 62 % to 57 % on 2026‑04‑09).
3rd Circuit rules sports‑event contracts are swaps, pre‑empting New Jersey law
July 31 surges to 44%17%
The 3rd Circuit issued a preliminary‑injunction order in KalshiEX v. Flaherty, holding that sports‑event contracts traded on CFTC‑regulated designated‑contract markets qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore pre‑empt New Jersey gambling law. The ruling sparked a surge in speculation that the case would soon be petitioned to the Supreme Court, pushing the “Yes” probability up sharply (price rose from 27 % on 2026‑04‑02 to 44 % on 2026‑04‑09).
Third Circuit upholds injunction, says Kalshi’s sports contracts are swaps pre‑empting state law
December 31 surges to 84%39%
The Third Circuit issued a 2‑1 opinion affirming a preliminary injunction that classified Kalshi’s sports‑event contracts as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, pre‑empting New Jersey’s gambling law. The ruling created a clear federal‑state conflict, raising the likelihood of a Supreme Court petition and driving the market price sharply upward in late February and early March before settling to a lower level once the decision was fully digested.
Third Circuit affirms Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, labeling sports contracts as swaps
July 31 drops to 18%8%
The 2‑1 Third Circuit ruling affirmed a preliminary injunction, holding that Kalshi’s sports‑event contracts are “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CEA preempts New Jersey gambling law. The decision created a clear federal‑state split, sharply raising the odds of a Supreme Court petition and caused the market’s July‑31 probability to fall from 26 % to around 18 % shortly after.
Third Circuit affirms preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi in New Jersey case
December 31 surges to 82%32%
The Third Circuit ruled on April 6, 2026, that Kalshi's sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey gambling laws. This ruling increased the likelihood of a Supreme Court petition, causing a significant market price spike.
Third Circuit rules sports‑event contracts are swaps, preempting state gambling law
July 31 rises to 27%4%
The Third Circuit issued a 2‑1 decision in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, holding that sports‑event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC’s jurisdiction preempts New Jersey’s gambling law. The ruling created a clear federal‑state split, raising speculation that the Supreme Court would hear the case and pushing the market’s “Yes” probability higher before the price later fell.
CFTC sues multiple states alleging preemption of state gambling laws
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to event contracts offered by designated contract markets. This aggressive federal action underscored the regulatory conflict and increased the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
CFTC and DOJ sue states to block enforcement of gambling laws against prediction markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to prevent these states from enforcing gambling laws against prediction market operators, asserting federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. This federal intervention underscored the regulatory conflict and increased chances of Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois claiming exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts
December 31 jumps to 50%8%
The CFTC filed a lawsuit alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts those states’ gambling laws. The filing highlighted federal commitment to the pre‑emption theory, nudging the market to perceive a higher chance of Supreme Court review and causing a brief rally in the December‑31 odds toward 50 % on Feb‑22.
US Government Sues Illinois Over Prediction Market Rules in First Direct Preemption Lawsuit
December 31 surges to 74%23%
The CFTC and DOJ filed a federal preemption lawsuit against Illinois officials, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over event contracts and escalating the battle to a national level.
CFTC sues three states over pre‑emption of sports‑event contracts
July 31 plunges to 34%28%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a federal suit against Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act pre‑empts those states’ gambling statutes as applied to prediction‑market contracts. The filing underscored the federal‑state clash and pushed market sentiment toward a potential Supreme Court review.
CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois over state enforcement of prediction‑market laws
July 31 drops to 20%7%
The CFTC sued three states (Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois) for attempting to enforce their gambling statutes against CFTC‑regulated prediction markets. The news contributed to a brief dip in the “July 31” price from 27 % (2026‑04‑01) to 20 % (2026‑04‑05).
CFTC and DOJ sue Illinois to block state gambling enforcement against prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 53%8%
The CFTC and Department of Justice filed a federal lawsuit against Illinois seeking to permanently enjoin the state from applying gambling laws to federally regulated prediction markets, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act. This escalated the federal-state regulatory conflict and supported the federal preemption argument.
CFTC and U.S. Department of Justice sue multiple states over enforcement against prediction markets
July 31 rises to 20%3%
The CFTC and DOJ jointly sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, asserting that state enforcement actions against prediction market platforms are preempted by federal law. This aggressive federal action underscored the administration's commitment to defending CFTC jurisdiction and impacted market sentiment.
CFTC Sues Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois Over State Enforcement of Prediction Markets
December 31 surges to 65%16%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a joint lawsuit against three states, alleging that their enforcement actions against prediction‑market platforms are pre‑empted by the Commodity Exchange Act. The filing highlighted a federal push to protect CFTC‑regulated markets, further raising expectations of a Supreme Court review.
CFTC + DOJ sue three states over enforcement of gambling laws against prediction markets
July 31 dips to 31%3%
The CFTC, together with the Justice Department, sued Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois, claiming the states’ gambling enforcement actions are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act. The filing heightened expectations of a federal‑state clash and pushed the “July 31” price lower.
CFTC sues three states alleging federal preemption of their gambling laws
July 31 plunges to 41%21%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed lawsuits in federal court alleging that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling statutes in Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois. The filings heightened expectations of a coordinated federal push, nudging the market down (price fell from 62 % to 41 % on 2026‑02‑15).
CFTC files amicus briefs asserting exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts
December 31 surges to 54%18%
The CFTC filed amicus briefs in multiple state lawsuits asserting exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. This federal backing raised the profile of the controversy and contributed to a price surge for the “December 31” outcome later in April.
CFTC sues Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over state enforcement against prediction markets
July 31 dips to 13%4%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed lawsuits against three states asserting that their enforcement actions against prediction markets are preempted by federal law, signaling strong federal support for exclusive CFTC jurisdiction and increasing expectations for Supreme Court review.
CFTC and DOJ sue Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over state gambling laws on sports event contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice filed lawsuits against several states asserting that state gambling laws are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act as applied to sports event contracts offered on CFTC-licensed markets. This federal action signaled increased regulatory assertiveness and heightened the stakes of ongoing litigation.
CFTC sues three states, claiming its exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts
July 31 jumps to 38%12%
The CFTC, together with the DOJ, filed a federal suit against Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois alleging that their state gambling laws are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act. The lawsuit signaled an aggressive federal stance and added momentum to the possibility of a Supreme Court review, pushing the Yes odds higher.
Kalshi reports record $1 billion trading volume on Super Bowl day amid prediction market growth
July 31 dips to 16%4%
Kalshi's record trading volume on a major sports event highlighted the growing prominence of prediction markets in sports betting, increasing public and regulatory attention but without direct Supreme Court action, contributing to market uncertainty.
Senate introduces bill to reclassify sports‑event contracts as gambling, removing CFTC jurisdiction
December 31 plunges to 56%33%
Congress introduced the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act,” proposing to remove CFTC jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts. The legislative move heightened uncertainty, causing the “December 31” price to retreat from a high of 89 % on 2026‑02‑22 down to 56 % by early March.
Senators introduce bill to reclassify sports event contracts as gambling
July 31 surges to 62%21%
Senators Curtis and Schiff introduced the "Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act" which would reclassify sports‑event contracts as gambling, removing them from CFTC jurisdiction. The legislative move was read as a possible trigger for Supreme Court review, contributing to a price rise in early March (price rose from 41 % to 62 % on 2026‑02‑22).
Congress introduces bill to strip CFTC authority over sports prediction markets
July 31 plunges to 24%18%
Senators introduced the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act,” seeking to amend the Commodity Exchange Act to remove CFTC jurisdiction over sports contracts. The legislative push raised doubts about a favorable Supreme Court outcome, nudging the market toward the “No” side.
Senators introduce bill to reclassify sports‑event contracts as gambling
December 31 drops to 45%11%
Congress introduced the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act,” which would strip the CFTC of authority over sports‑event contracts. The bill’s introduction revived concerns about legislative roadblocks, causing a modest dip in the “December 31” probability in early March.
Senators introduce ‘Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act’ to limit sports contracts
July 31 drops to 15%7%
Senators introduced the “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act,” proposing to strip CFTC‑regulated platforms of the ability to offer sports contracts. The legislative push suggested a hostile environment for prediction markets, nudging the market lower.
Congress introduces Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act
July 31 drops to 5%11%
Congress introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, aiming to reclassify sports event contracts as gambling. The bill’s introduction sparked speculation that legislative action could preempt the need for Supreme Court review, lowering market confidence in a certiorari grant and pulling the “July 31” price down.
Congressional bill introduced to restrict sports and casino-style event contracts on prediction markets
Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced legislation aiming to amend federal law to prohibit sports and casino-style event contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms. This legislative development adds complexity to the regulatory environment and influences market expectations about Supreme Court intervention.
CFTC files amicus brief in Massachusetts prediction‑market case
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts case, reiterating its preemption argument. The filing was featured in several legal‑news outlets and gave a modest lift to the December 31 probability (from 55 % to 62 %).
Kalshi’s legal victory in Arizona cited as precedent for federal preemption of state gambling laws
July 31 drops to 14%8%
Kalshi announced that the Arizona ruling was a “step in the right direction,” reinforcing the view that federal law governs event contracts. The market reacted by further discounting the likelihood of a Supreme Court grant of certiorari.
CFTC issues ANPR seeking comment on regulation of sports‑event contracts
July 31 drops to 16%7%
The CFTC released an advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPR) soliciting comment on how the agency would treat “gaming” and “sports competition” contracts, signaling possible regulatory tightening and contributing to a modest dip in market confidence for a July‑31 cert grant.
Sportico: SCOTUS could have final say on sports prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 46%13%
Sportico’s analysis highlighted that a circuit split was likely and that the Roberts Court might be inclined to hear the case. The piece spurred a brief rally in the December‑31 odds to 46 % on March‑1 before the later decline.
States and tribal nations continue legal challenges against prediction markets
July 31 drops to 13%7%
Several states and tribal nations filed lawsuits against prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging violations of state gambling laws. These ongoing legal battles dampened market optimism about a Supreme Court certiorari grant, contributing to price declines.
Federal government sues Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois over state regulation of prediction markets
December 31 jumps to 64%9%
The federal government filed lawsuits against three states challenging their attempts to regulate prediction market operators, reinforcing the federal preemption argument and affecting market expectations about Supreme Court involvement.
Supreme Court could decide future of sports prediction markets
July 31 dips to 20%2%
A Sportico analysis highlighted the growing chance of Supreme Court review given the emerging circuit split, nudging the market slightly upward before later setbacks pulled the probability down again.
Trump administration asserts CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in lawsuits
July 31 jumps to 31%11%
The federal government filed lawsuits against several states challenging their attempts to regulate prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket. This legal action reinforced federal regulatory authority claims, sustaining market interest in a possible Supreme Court case on sports event contracts by July 31.
CFTC chairman announces Innovation Advisory Committee including prediction market CEOs
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced the creation of an Innovation Advisory Committee to help draft regulations on cryptocurrencies and prediction markets, including CEOs from Kalshi and Polymarket. This indicated federal regulatory engagement but no Supreme Court certiorari grant.
Kalshi reports record trading volume after Super Bowl event contracts surge
December 31 drops to 33%12%
A massive spike in trading volume and related media coverage highlighted the financial significance of prediction markets, but the lack of any SCOTUS action on related legal challenges kept price pressure downward.
Ohio court rules sports event contracts not swaps, upholding state gambling laws
July 31 drops to 23%6%
An Ohio court ruled that sports event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and upheld state gambling laws, contrasting with the Third Circuit ruling and contributing to the legal uncertainty driving market fluctuations.
Ohio Court Denies Kalshi's Preliminary Injunction, Upholds State Gaming Authority
July 31 drops to 5%9%
An Ohio district court denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction, allowing state regulators to treat the platform’s contracts as gambling. The setback reduced optimism that the Supreme Court would intervene, pushing the “Yes” probability lower.
Will outcome in prediction‑market appellate cases pave the way for Supreme Court review?
July 31 dips to 22%2%
An iGaming Business piece discussed how an appellate circuit split could fast‑track a Supreme Court petition, briefly raising market optimism for a certiorari grant.
CFTC files friend‑of‑the‑court brief supporting Kalshi in 9th Circuit appeal
December 31 plunges to 40%24%
The CFTC’s amicus brief signaled strong federal backing for prediction‑market operators, suggesting the issue could ascend to the Supreme Court, which further depressed market confidence.
Federal government sues Connecticut, Arizona, Illinois over state regulation of prediction markets
July 31 jumps to 25%6%
The federal government filed lawsuits against three states challenging their attempts to regulate prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, reinforcing the federal preemption argument. This legal escalation briefly boosted market optimism for a Supreme Court review before July 31.
Federal government sues three states over their regulation of prediction markets
December 31 surges to 66%26%
The federal government escalated its legal fight by suing Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois to challenge their regulation of prediction markets, reinforcing the administration's stance on federal preemption.
Supreme Court could decide future of sports prediction markets
July 31 jumps to 20%6%
Sportico published an analysis highlighting the growing legal battle and the possibility of Supreme Court review, which coincided with a brief rally in the July 31 market (price rose from 14 % on 2026‑03‑03 to 20 % on 2026‑03‑10).
Federal government sues three states over prediction‑market regulation
December 31 drops to 53%8%
The Justice Department filed lawsuits against Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois, asserting that the CFTC, not the states, has authority over prediction‑market contracts. The move reinforced the view that a Supreme Court grant of certiorari was unlikely, pushing prices lower.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule banning gaming‑related event contracts
July 31 jumps to 28%7%
The CFTC announced it would withdraw a 2024 proposed rule that would have prohibited gaming‑related contracts, signaling a more permissive federal stance and briefly boosting “Yes” probability.
Federal judge denies Kalshi’s attempt to bar state prosecution but later issues favorable ruling
July 31 surges to 56%15%
Initially, a federal judge denied Kalshi’s request to block state prosecution under gambling laws, but subsequently issued a ruling favoring federal preemption by the CFTC over state laws. This legal back-and-forth contributed to market volatility and uncertainty about the Supreme Court’s involvement.
CFTC signals upcoming rulemaking targeting prediction markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced it is drafting new rules that could broaden the definition of swaps to include prediction‑market contracts, including those tied to sports events. The prospect of tighter federal regulation lowered confidence that the Supreme Court would need to intervene.
CFTC Chairman announces Innovation Advisory Committee including prediction market CEOs
July 31 jumps to 52%11%
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced a 35-member Innovation Advisory Committee to help draft regulations on cryptocurrencies and prediction markets, including CEOs of Kalshi and Polymarket. This indicated federal regulatory engagement but no Supreme Court case acceptance.
Federal courts issue mixed rulings on state efforts to ban Kalshi and Polymarket sports betting
July 31 dips to 14%3%
Federal and state judges issued mixed rulings on lawsuits involving Kalshi and Polymarket, with some courts siding with states and others with the platforms. This legal uncertainty contributed to market volatility but no Supreme Court certiorari grant was reported, keeping probabilities low.
Kalshi reports record trading volume during Super Bowl, highlighting prediction market growth
December 31 surges to 56%15%
Kalshi experienced a daily record of over $1 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl day, reflecting rapid growth and increased public attention to prediction markets. This event underscored the industry's expansion but did not directly affect Supreme Court certiorari chances, contributing to market volatility.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle over prediction markets
July 31 surges to 50%24%
The Trump administration, through the CFTC chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal regulatory authority over these markets and opposing state bans. This federal backing was significant for the market's expectations about legal outcomes related to sports event contracts.
Trump administration backs prediction markets against state bans
July 31 drops to 17%9%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal regulatory authority and opposing state-level bans. This federal backing reduced expectations for a Supreme Court cert grant on sports event contracts, reflected in market price drops.
Nevada moves to remand Kalshi case after state injunction
July 31 rises to 20%3%
Nevada filed an emergency motion to remand the case after the Superior Court injunction, highlighting a divergent state approach and adding pressure on the federal‑state split narrative, which contributed to a modest rise in “Yes” odds.
U.S. District Judge rules in favor of CFTC, temporarily bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators
July 31 plunges to 67%22%
A federal judge's ruling affirmed that event contracts constitute regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC has demonstrated a reasonable chance of success in showing federal preemption over Arizona law, directly impacting the market's legal criteria.
CFTC argues exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts in Arizona case
During oral arguments, the CFTC reiterated that event contracts are swaps subject to federal regulation, bolstering the argument that any Supreme Court review would likely favor federal preemption. The reaffirmation coincided with a sharp price drop.
CFTC argues exclusive jurisdiction over swaps in Arizona case filing
July 31 drops to 13%14%
The CFTC submitted a brief emphasizing its exclusive authority over swaps, reinforcing the view that sports‑event contracts are regulated federally, which further dampened market expectations of a SCOTUS certiorari.
Supreme Court hearing on independent agency power raises doubts on future market rulings
July 31 plunges to 11%17%
While not directly about prediction markets, the Court’s willingness to expand presidential control over agencies suggested a possible weakening of CFTC independence, causing a brief rally before the market corrected as traders reassessed the long‑term regulatory outlook.
Kalshi reports record $1 billion trading volume on Super Bowl day amid prediction market surge
July 31 surges to 89%39%
Kalshi experienced a massive surge in trading volume on the day of the 2026 Super Bowl, highlighting the growing popularity and financial scale of prediction markets tied to sports events. This event underscored the importance of sports contracts in the prediction market ecosystem but did not directly influence Supreme Court certiorari.
Kalshi reports record trading volume on Super Bowl day amid prediction market growth
December 31 surges to 62%16%
Kalshi experienced a daily record trading volume exceeding $1 billion on Super Bowl day, highlighting the rapid growth and popularity of sports event contracts. This increased market activity underscored the stakes in ongoing legal disputes but did not trigger Supreme Court action.
Judge rules in favor of CFTC in Arizona-Kalshi dispute, halting state prosecution
July 31 drops to 16%10%
A federal judge ruled that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, halting Arizona's criminal prosecution of Kalshi. This reinforced federal regulatory primacy and diminished the likelihood of a Supreme Court case on sports event contracts, contributing to market price declines.
Kalshi trading volume spikes on Super Bowl, highlighting prediction market growth
December 31 plunges to 46%38%
Kalshi reported record trading volume during the Super Bowl, reflecting growing interest and regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets. This event increased market attention on the legal status of sports event contracts, contributing to price volatility in the December 31 outcome.
Federal indictment exposes NCAA basketball game-fixing scheme involving players and gamblers
December 31 surges to 87%40%
Federal prosecutors announced charges against 26 individuals, including NCAA players, for rigging basketball games to defraud sportsbooks. This high-profile sports betting scandal heightened scrutiny on sports-related contracts and betting legality, impacting market perceptions about potential Supreme Court involvement in sports event contract regulation.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi prediction market
July 31 surges to 50%23%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of event contracts like those offered by Kalshi. This ruling supported the federal regulatory framework over state gambling laws, impacting the market's outlook on sports event contract regulation.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating Kalshi and pauses criminal case
December 31 surges to 82%35%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, siding with the CFTC's claim that event contracts fall under federal swaps regulation. This ruling suggested federal preemption and increased chances of a Supreme Court case, causing a price spike in the December 31 market.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket against state bans in legal battle
December 31 surges to 73%41%
The Trump administration publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting that the CFTC has exclusive regulatory authority and that state-level bans are preempted. This bolstered confidence that federal regulation would prevail, influencing market prices.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets including Kalshi and Polymarket
July 31 plunges to 26%39%
The federal government sued Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators, asserting that the CFTC has exclusive regulatory authority. This federal action underscored the ongoing legal conflict but did not involve a Supreme Court certiorari grant, influencing market sentiment downward for a cert grant by July 31.
CFTC announces public roundtable on sports betting contracts regulation
December 31 surges to 71%21%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced a public roundtable to discuss regulation and oversight of sports-related event contracts on prediction markets. This event highlighted the agency's active role and the regulatory uncertainty surrounding sports event contracts, influencing early market speculation about Supreme Court involvement.
Tennessee federal court blocks state enforcement of gambling laws against Kalshi
July 31 jumps to 36%6%
A federal judge in Tennessee granted a preliminary injunction blocking the state from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi’s contracts, finding the contracts likely qualify as swaps. The decision added another favorable ruling for Kalshi, briefly boosting market sentiment toward a Supreme Court grant of certiorari.
Tennessee district court finds Kalshi’s sports contracts qualify as swaps under the CEA
July 31 surges to 33%15%
A February filing in Tennessee affirmed that Kalshi’s contracts are swaps, reinforcing the federal pre‑emption narrative and coinciding with a modest uptick in the July‑31 probability to 33 % on Jan‑31.
Tennessee judge grants Kalshi injunction, deeming sports contracts swaps
July 31 drops to 16%12%
Judge Trauger granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction, ruling its sports contracts are swaps under the CEA. The ruling was the first major win for the platform in the Southeast and caused the July 31 probability to tumble from 28 % on Feb 11 to 16 % on Feb 26 as market participants saw another jurisdictional shield for the platform.
Tennessee court finds Kalshi’s sports contracts are swaps, not gambling
December 31 jumps to 56%10%
A Tennessee district court ruled that Kalshi’s contracts are swaps and therefore fall under CFTC jurisdiction, reinforcing the preemption argument and pushing the “December 31” probability higher in late February.
Middle District of Tennessee rules sports event contracts are swaps under CEA
July 31 surges to 36%20%
The court found that sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal regulation preempts state gambling laws, supporting Kalshi's position. This ruling increased market optimism about SCOTUS review for the July 31 deadline.
Federal judge in Tennessee grants Kalshi preliminary injunction blocking state sports betting enforcement
July 31 jumps to 34%14%
U.S. District Judge Aleta Trauger ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, granting federal protection and blocking Tennessee officials from enforcing state sports betting laws against Kalshi. This ruling supported the argument that federal law preempts state gambling regulation for these contracts, boosting market optimism.
Middle District of Tennessee finds Kalshi's sports event contracts likely swaps under CEA
July 31 jumps to 33%6%
A federal district court in Tennessee ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, supporting federal preemption over state gambling laws. This bolstered the legal foundation for federal jurisdiction and influenced market optimism about Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over Kalshi sports event contracts
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
A divided Third Circuit panel held that Kalshi's sports-related event contracts are "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws and affirming CFTC's exclusive regulatory authority. This ruling increased confidence that federal regulation applies, impacting market expectations for Supreme Court review.
Tennessee federal court finds Kalshi’s sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 drops to 17%9%
A federal court in Tennessee ruled that Kalshi’s sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the CEA and that federal preemption applies to state gambling laws, reinforcing Kalshi’s argument for exclusive federal regulation and influencing market sentiment on regulatory clarity.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle over prediction markets
July 31 drops to 17%12%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that federal regulation preempts state gambling laws. This bolstered the federal regulatory stance but did not indicate Supreme Court certiorari, influencing market prices downward as states continue legal challenges.
CFTC files amicus brief supporting exclusive federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed an amicus brief in the Ninth Circuit supporting the view that sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws. This reinforced federal regulatory authority and influenced market expectations about Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC files amicus brief asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 28%11%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed an amicus brief in the Ninth Circuit supporting federally regulated exchanges, asserting that sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that state gambling laws are preempted. This federal assertion of jurisdiction heightened the legal stakes and influenced market expectations.
Ninth Circuit hears arguments on state regulation versus federal preemption of sports contracts
On April 16, 2026, the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments in cases challenging state authority to regulate sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets, highlighting the legal conflict and increasing the chance of a Supreme Court decision to resolve the split.
CFTC filing asserts exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, prompting industry backlash
July 31 drops to 16%12%
The CFTC submitted a brief to the Supreme Court reaffirming its exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, arguing that state gambling statutes are preempted. Traders interpreted the filing as a sign the Court would not take up a sports‑event contract case, pushing prices down further.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket against state bans on prediction markets
July 31 rises to 37%1%
The Trump administration, via the CFTC chairman, publicly supported prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal regulatory authority and opposing state gambling restrictions. This federal backing influenced market expectations about regulatory outcomes and potential Supreme Court involvement.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi prediction market
July 31 jumps to 38%11%
A federal judge issued a temporary order preventing Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi for alleged illegal gambling operations, affirming the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. This ruling was a significant legal victory for prediction markets, briefly boosting market optimism for a Supreme Court review by July 31.
Trader files CFTC complaint over Kalshi’s Super Bowl halftime‑show contract
Following the Super Bowl, a Kalshi trader lodged a complaint with the CFTC alleging the platform’s contract on Cardi B’s cameo violated the Commodity Exchange Act. The filing highlighted regulatory risk for sports‑event contracts, further dampening market optimism for a SCOTUS certiorari grant.
Market Optimism Peaks on Speculation of SCOTUS Certiorari Grant
July 31 surges to 77%51%
Speculation about the Supreme Court granting certiorari on sports event contracts peaked, driving the July 31 market price to a high of 77%, reflecting increased expectations of a review.
Judge rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction market contracts
July 31 plunges to 20%57%
A federal judge ruled that event contracts fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of 'swaps,' and that the CFTC has demonstrated a reasonable chance of success in showing that federal law preempts Arizona's gambling laws. This is a direct legal precedent for the market's resolution criteria.
Ninth Circuit oral arguments scheduled for April 16, 2026, raising certiorari prospects
July 31 drops to 28%6%
The Ninth Circuit scheduled consolidated oral arguments for April 16, 2026, in cases involving Kalshi and others, increasing the likelihood of a circuit split that could prompt Supreme Court review. This event influenced market prices as traders anticipated a potential path to certiorari.
Supreme Court weighs state limits on carrying guns on private property
July 31 drops to 27%7%
While not directly about sports contracts, the Supreme Court's focus on Second Amendment rights and private property limits during this period drew significant attention to the Court's docket, impacting broader market sentiment regarding SCOTUS intervention.
Kalshi reports record trading volume during Super Bowl, sparking regulatory scrutiny
July 31 surges to 52%38%
Kalshi experienced a record daily trading volume exceeding $1 billion on Super Bowl day, highlighting the growth of prediction markets tied to sports events. This surge drew complaints and regulatory attention but did not lead to Supreme Court certiorari, contributing to market uncertainty.
CFTC receives complaint over Kalshi’s Super Bowl contract handling
December 31 plunges to 28%25%
A trader filed a formal complaint with the CFTC alleging Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act in its contract about Cardi B’s Super Bowl halftime appearance. The complaint highlighted regulatory scrutiny of sports‑event contracts, further dampening expectations of a favorable Supreme Court ruling and contributing to the price drop for the December 31 outcome from 53% to 28% by early May.
CFTC Chairman signals support for sports event contracts industry
December 31 surges to 59%25%
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig publicly expressed support for innovation in sports event contracts, indicating regulatory backing that could influence the legal landscape and SCOTUS interest.
Nevada Gaming Control Board obtains temporary restraining order against Kalshi
December 31 drops to 46%9%
A state enforcement action against Kalshi added to the legal pressure on prediction markets, reinforcing concerns that the Supreme Court may need to decide the federal‑state jurisdiction issue.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule that would have prohibited gaming-related contracts
December 31 jumps to 36%9%
On February 6, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have banned contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory openness to sports event contracts and impacting legal interpretations of federal jurisdiction.
Trump administration backs prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket amid state bans
July 31 drops to 27%9%
The Trump administration, through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), publicly supported prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal jurisdiction over these markets and opposing state-level gambling restrictions. This federal backing raised expectations that legal challenges might escalate to the Supreme Court, influencing market prices for the July 31 outcome.
CFTC withdraws 2024 event contracts proposal, signals new rulemaking approach
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew its 2024 proposed rule banning certain event contracts, including those involving gaming, and announced a new rulemaking process to promote innovation. This indicated ongoing regulatory uncertainty affecting the market.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule barring gaming‑related event contracts
July 31 jumps to 28%14%
The CFTC announced it was withdrawing a proposed rule that would have prohibited “gaming” contracts, a move interpreted by market participants as a possible softening of the agency’s stance toward sports‑event contracts, temporarily lifting the "July 31" odds.
Trump administration throws support behind prediction market operators
July 31 surges to 54%26%
The Trump administration, through the CFTC, officially backed Kalshi and Polymarket in their legal battles against states, signaling a shift toward federal oversight and away from state-level gambling bans.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule banning gaming‑related contracts
December 31 surges to 84%39%
The CFTC announced the withdrawal of a proposed rule that would have prohibited gaming‑related contracts, signaling regulatory uncertainty. The announcement briefly boosted optimism that the market could avoid a restrictive rule, lifting the “December 31” price to a February high before the Third Circuit decision tempered expectations.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule banning event contracts involving gaming
On February 6, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory support for sports event contracts and bolstering the argument that these contracts fall under federal jurisdiction rather than state gambling laws.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule that would have prohibited sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 28%9%
On February 6, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have banned contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory openness to sports event contracts and supporting Kalshi's federal regulatory argument.
Judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against prediction‑market operators
December 31 plunges to 34%18%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC's successful argument that event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, reinforcing federal preemption over state law.
Trump administration publicly backs Kalshi and Polymarket in state‑law battles
December 31 drops to 45%11%
The administration, through CFTC Chair Michael Selig, filed a friend‑of‑the‑court brief supporting Kalshi and Polymarket, signaling federal endorsement of their regulatory status and further lowering odds of a Supreme Court review of sports‑event contract cases.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operator Kalshi
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi, emphasizing that the CFTC has shown event contracts fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and may preempt state law. The decision signaled strong federal authority, reducing expectations of a Supreme Court review of the issue.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule banning gaming-related contracts, signaling support for sports event contracts
On February 4, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, indicating regulatory support for sports event contracts and bolstering arguments for federal jurisdiction over these products.
Third Circuit Rules in Favor of KalshiEX on Sports Event Contracts
December 31 surges to 49%30%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled that sports event contracts are likely "swaps" under federal law, supporting preemption of state gambling laws, boosting market confidence in a Supreme Court review.
Fourth Circuit issues preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi in sports contract dispute
December 31 surges to 62%36%
On February 4, 2026, the Fourth Circuit issued a preliminary injunction barring New Jersey from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi, reinforcing the federal preemption argument and boosting market confidence in a Supreme Court review.
CFTC Formally Withdraws Proposed Limits and Ban on Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 36%16%
The CFTC officially withdrew its 2024 proposed rule that sought to prohibit sports and political event contracts, signaling a major shift toward federal regulation and defense of its exclusive jurisdiction.
Third Circuit rules in KalshiEX LLC v. on sports event contracts legality
December 31 surges to 49%30%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit issued a ruling favoring KalshiEX LLC, finding sports event contracts likely qualify as swaps under federal law, creating a circuit split that increased the chance of Supreme Court review. This ruling caused a significant market price increase reflecting higher odds of certiorari.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule restricting gaming-related contracts
On February 4, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory support for sports event contracts and bolstering the argument that such contracts fall under federal jurisdiction, impacting market sentiment positively.
CFTC withdraws proposed rule restricting sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 28%8%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed rule that would have prohibited contracts involving gaming, signaling regulatory support for sports event contracts and influencing market expectations about federal oversight versus state regulation.
Tennessee court schedules KalshiEX LLC v. Martin oral argument for early May
In early February 2026, the Tennessee case involving Kalshi was tentatively calendared for oral argument in early May, indicating ongoing litigation and uncertainty about federal preemption of state gambling laws.
Nevada Regulators File Civil Enforcement Action Against Coinbase Prediction Markets
December 31 dips to 49%4%
The Nevada Gaming Control Board filed a lawsuit against Coinbase Financial Markets to block its sports-related event contracts, escalating state-level crackdowns and increasing the likelihood of a legal showdown.
CFTC chair backs prediction‑market operators in fight against state bans
December 31 drops to 48%8%
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig publicly supported Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that federal regulation preempts state gambling laws. The endorsement was taken as a signal that the agency would defend the industry, further lowering expectations of a Supreme Court review.
CFTC sues Minnesota over new felony law targeting prediction‑market contracts
July 31 surges to 62%46%
The CFTC filed a lawsuit challenging Minnesota’s new felony law on prediction‑market contracts, signaling federal intent to protect such markets. News of the suit coincided with a sharp rise in the July‑31 probability from 16% to over 60% in late February.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, pauses criminal case
July 31 surges to 65%49%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction market operator Kalshi, citing federal preemption by the Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over swaps. This ruling was significant for the market as it reinforced federal regulatory authority over event contracts, reducing the likelihood of state-level restrictions leading to Supreme Court intervention by July 31, 2026.
Judge rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts under Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 plunges to 5%21%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from regulating prediction market operators, ruling that event contracts constitute 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC has exclusive federal jurisdiction. This decision directly addresses the market's legal criteria regarding federal regulation of sports event contracts.
CFTC Chairman Signals Support for Sports Event Contracts Industry
December 31 jumps to 58%8%
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig publicly expressed support for innovation in sports event contracts, indicating regulatory solicitude which influenced market optimism about eventual Supreme Court review.
Judge rules CFTC prevails in Arizona prediction market lawsuit
July 31 plunges to 5%21%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from regulating prediction market operators, ruling that event contracts fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of swaps and that federal law prevails over Arizona's gambling statutes. This decision significantly strengthened the federal regulatory position on prediction markets.
Judge rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, preempts Arizona gambling laws
July 31 dips to 25%1%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from regulating prediction market operators, ruling that the CFTC has 'exclusive jurisdiction' over 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act, demonstrating federal preemption over state gambling laws for sports event contracts.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operators
July 31 drops to 15%11%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act. Traders saw the decision as a setback for state regulation, pushing down the July 31 and December 31 prices.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 drops to 17%10%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market operator offering event contracts including sports outcomes, siding with the CFTC's claim of exclusive federal jurisdiction. This ruling supported the view that such contracts fall under federal regulation, impacting market expectations for Supreme Court intervention.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle with states
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket against state efforts to ban them, emphasizing federal regulatory authority over these markets. This bolstered market confidence in federal preemption over state gambling laws, initially supporting the possibility of Supreme Court involvement.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against prediction‑market operator Kalshi
July 31 drops to 27%11%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona’s criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC’s claim that event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The ruling suggested federal preemption, reducing perceived risk of a SCOTUS certiorari grant.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal fight against state bans on prediction markets
July 31 rises to 18%4%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal regulatory authority over these markets and opposing state gambling laws. This bolstered confidence in federal preemption but did not indicate Supreme Court certiorari.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 drops to 17%10%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market operator, citing federal Commodity Exchange Act preemption. This ruling indicated federal authority over event contracts, impacting market expectations about state-level regulation and potential Supreme Court involvement.
Ninth Circuit briefs highlight dispute over federal preemption of state sports betting laws
On January 16, 2026, filings in the Ninth Circuit case emphasized Kalshi's argument that its sports wagers are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, exempting them from state gaming laws. This set the stage for a significant appellate dispute on federal versus state regulatory authority over sports event contracts.
Ninth Circuit case filings highlight dispute over CFTC jurisdiction on sports contracts
July 31 dips to 25%2%
On January 16, 2026, filings in the Ninth Circuit detailed arguments over whether sports event contracts offered by platforms like Kalshi fall under federal Commodity Exchange Act jurisdiction or state gambling laws. This set the stage for upcoming appellate decisions that could create a circuit split, influencing Supreme Court interest.
Ninth Circuit case filed challenging state regulation of sports event contracts
The Ninth Circuit received cases involving Kalshi and others challenging Nevada's state gaming authority over sports event contracts regulated by the CFTC. This set the stage for a potential circuit split and future Supreme Court review.
Judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses prosecution of Kalshi
July 31 dips to 24%1%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, citing the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. This legal victory for prediction markets initially boosted market confidence in federal preemption.
Ninth Circuit briefs filed debating CFTC jurisdiction over sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 25%2%
On January 16, 2026, briefs were filed in the Ninth Circuit case challenging state gambling laws over sports event contracts, highlighting the legal dispute over whether such contracts are regulated as swaps by the CFTC. This set the stage for upcoming oral arguments and potential circuit split.
Ninth Circuit briefs highlight legal debate over sports event contracts as swaps
On January 16, 2026, filings in the Ninth Circuit case emphasized the contention that sports wagers offered by Kalshi are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, setting the stage for appellate review and potential Supreme Court involvement. This early legal framing contributed to initial market interest.
Ninth Circuit briefs filed challenging state authority over sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 28%1%
On January 16, 2026, amicus briefs and filings in the Ninth Circuit case (25-7504) argued over whether sports event contracts offered by platforms like Kalshi are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting state gambling laws. This set the stage for a key appellate review that could create a circuit split and influence Supreme Court interest.
Ninth Circuit briefs reveal Kalshi's argument that sports wagers are swaps under CEA
On January 16, 2026, filings in the Ninth Circuit case detailed Kalshi's position that its sports wagers qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, seeking federal preemption of state gambling laws. This set the stage for the circuit court's upcoming review and potential conflict with other circuits.
Ninth Circuit case challenges federal preemption of state gambling laws on sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 32%7%
The Ninth Circuit heard cases involving Kalshi and others, with arguments focusing on whether sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and thus federally regulated, or subject to state gambling laws. This raised the prospect of a circuit split, increasing chances for Supreme Court review.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig publicly backs Kalshi and Polymarket against state bans
December 31 plunges to 19%31%
Selig’s statement that the CFTC will defend its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets intensified speculation that a Supreme Court case on the issue might be imminent, pushing prices lower.
Federal district court in Tennessee hears case on sports event contracts regulation
A federal district court in Tennessee considered whether sports event contracts offered by Kalshi fall under federal or state regulation, highlighting early judicial scrutiny of the regulatory framework and contributing to market uncertainty.
Federal judge issues temporary restraining order blocking Tennessee enforcement against Kalshi
July 31 drops to 18%9%
U.S. District Judge Aleta Trauger granted Kalshi a temporary restraining order preventing Tennessee officials from enforcing state sports betting laws against Kalshi, citing likely federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. This ruling was a significant early legal win for Kalshi and influenced market optimism about federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts.
Federal judge blocks Arizona from regulating prediction‑market operators, citing CFTC authority
July 31 drops to 14%13%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, emphasizing that the CFTC has shown event contracts fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and likely preempt state law. The ruling lowered perceived chances of a Supreme Court case on sports‑event contracts, driving the July 31 price down from 27% to 14% and the December 31 price from 50% to 19%.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi prediction market
July 31 jumps to 36%9%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws, affirming the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts as swaps under federal law. This ruling boosted confidence that federal regulation would preempt state gambling laws, impacting the market's outlook for Supreme Court intervention.
Trump administration backs prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battles
July 31 dips to 24%3%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting federal regulatory authority over these markets and opposing state gambling restrictions. This bolstered the legal position of prediction markets but did not involve Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contracts.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal fight against state gambling bans
July 31 jumps to 32%7%
The Trump administration, via CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing federal regulation preempts state gambling laws. This bolstered market optimism that federal authority would prevail, temporarily increasing prices for July 31 resolution.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators, pauses Kalshi prosecution
December 31 plunges to 19%31%
A federal judge ruled that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, temporarily blocking Arizona from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi. This ruling supported the view that federal regulation preempts state laws, impacting the market's outlook on Supreme Court intervention.
Tennessee Orders Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to Cease Sports Contracts
July 31 dips to 26%1%
Tennessee's Sports Wagering Council issued strict cease-and-desist orders to major prediction platforms, asserting state gambling laws apply regardless of federal CFTC designations.
Federal judge blocks Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operator Kalshi
July 31 drops to 25%5%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily barred Arizona from pursuing its criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC's claim that event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The decision highlighted federal preemption, lowering market confidence in a SCOTUS certiorari request.
Supreme Court schedules oral argument for January 21, 2026, on related regulatory case
July 31 rises to 26%1%
The Supreme Court set oral argument for January 21, 2026, in a case involving federal regulatory authority, indicating active consideration of issues related to jurisdiction and regulatory preemption that could impact sports event contract cases.
Judge Michael Liburdi bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi
July 31 rises to 26%2%
A federal judge temporarily halted Arizona’s criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC’s claim that event contracts are swaps, which suggested a federal‑state clash that could reach the Supreme Court.
Federal government sues Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois over state bans on prediction markets
July 31 dips to 24%3%
The Justice Department filed a lawsuit claiming that the CFTC, not states, has exclusive authority over event contracts, raising the prospect of a Supreme Court review of the regulatory conflict.
Legal blog cites possible SCOTUS briefing on Kalshi prediction‑market case
December 31 rises to 27%3%
Rumors that SCOTUS had scheduled a briefing on the Kalshi case circulated in niche legal blogs, briefly pushing the “December 31” odds up to 27% before the market corrected to 24% by June 1.
SCOTUSblog reports 20 new relists for Supreme Court 2026 term
July 31 rises to 27%3%
The Supreme Court re-listed 20 new cases for its upcoming term, including sports-related matters, indicating increased interest in certiorari for 2026.
SCOTUSblog reports 20 new likely relists for January 2026 term
July 31 rises to 26%2%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had granted 20 new petitions for review, indicating increased judicial activity. This could include cases related to sports event contracts and regulatory jurisdiction.
New Jersey petitions Supreme Court for review of Kalshi ruling
December 31 drops to 31%7%
New Jersey filed a petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court after the Third Circuit ruling, signalling a possible SCOTUS review and temporarily boosting market confidence in late December.
Legal analysis highlights ongoing federal court splits on sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 27%1%
A December 19, 2025 legal alert summarized the deepening disagreement among federal courts on whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation or preempted by federal law, reinforcing expectations for Supreme Court review.
Cahill Gordon & Reindel report highlights deepening federal court split on sports event contract regulation
July 31 dips to 26%1%
A detailed legal analysis underscored the divergent district court rulings and ongoing appeals in multiple circuits, emphasizing the lack of regulatory clarity and the increasing possibility of Supreme Court intervention. However, no certiorari grant occurred within the window, reflecting market skepticism.
Analysts say circuit split makes Supreme Court review of sports‑event contracts likely in 2026
July 31 rises to 26%2%
Multiple legal analysts reported that the growing circuit split made a Supreme Court review likely in 2026, heightening speculation that SCOTUS would eventually take the case. The speculation revived market optimism, lifting the Yes probability from the low‑20’s on Dec 7 back up to 26 % by Dec 21.
Legal analysis highlights deepening federal court disagreement on sports event contract regulation
A detailed client alert summarized the conflicting federal court rulings on whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation or exclusively regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act. This highlighted the growing legal uncertainty and the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Coinbase sues Illinois, Michigan, Connecticut over state regulation of prediction markets
July 31 dips to 26%1%
Coinbase filed lawsuits challenging state gambling laws as applied to prediction markets, arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act grants exclusive federal jurisdiction to the CFTC over event contracts. This escalated the legal battle over state versus federal regulatory authority, impacting market expectations for Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC clarifies regulatory scope of sports event contracts under Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 rises to 26%2%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a regulatory guidance document expanding its interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act to include sports event contracts, which could have implications for federal preemption of state gambling laws.
CFTC issues guidance on event contracts and derivatives
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued new guidance clarifying the regulatory status of sports event contracts, creating uncertainty about whether such contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Coinbase Sues Multiple States to Defend Sports Prediction Contracts
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Coinbase filed lawsuits against regulators in Illinois, Michigan, and Connecticut, arguing that sports event contracts are federally regulated derivatives under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction.
Legal Analysts Highlight Deepening Court Split and Rising Likelihood of Supreme Court Intervention
July 31 rises to 27%1%
A detailed legal analysis highlighted that divergent rulings across Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland have set up appeals in the Third, Fourth, and Ninth Circuits, making SCOTUS intervention highly probable.
Legal dispute over sports event contracts deepens in federal courts
July 31 dips to 24%2%
A legal dispute emerged over whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation, creating uncertainty about potential Supreme Court certiorari.
Federal courts remain split on regulation of sports event contracts, setting stage for SCOTUS
By December 19, 2025, federal courts showed deepening disagreement over whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation or preempted by federal law. This split increases the likelihood that the Supreme Court may eventually take up the issue, though no certiorari grant was reported during the window.
Legal analysis highlights split federal court rulings on sports event contracts
A detailed legal alert summarized the ongoing split among federal courts regarding the regulation of sports event contracts, emphasizing the likelihood that SCOTUS will need to resolve the issue, supporting a moderate market probability for certiorari by July 31, 2026.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battles over prediction markets
July 31 drops to 64%13%
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig publicly supported Kalshi and Polymarket, emphasizing that federal regulation should preempt state gambling laws, which further reduced expectations of a Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit grants NRA petition for rehearing en banc
July 31 dips to 24%2%
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals granted the NRA's petition for rehearing en banc, which could lead to a Supreme Court certiorari challenge. This legal development increased uncertainty about sports-related regulatory issues.
Third Circuit grants en banc rehearing on sports event contract regulation case
July 31 dips to 24%2%
A 3-judge panel of the Third Circuit Court of Appeals granted the NRA's petition for rehearing en banc on a case challenging state regulation of sports event contracts, signaling potential for a higher court review that could impact the market's resolution.
No Supreme Court certiorari grant announced for sports event contract cases
July 31 rises to 26%2%
By mid-December 2025, no official Supreme Court certiorari grant was publicly confirmed for any case concerning sports event contracts, leading to market price stabilization around 26%.
SCOTUS expected to weigh in on prediction market cases involving sports event contracts
Industry analysts and legal commentators noted that the Supreme Court may soon address cases involving federal regulation of sports event contracts offered by CFTC-regulated entities, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and anticipation of a certiorari grant in 2026.
SCOTUSblog reports relist of sports event contract case for 2026 term
July 31 dips to 24%2%
A petition challenging the legality of sports event contracts was re-listed for the Supreme Court's upcoming term, signaling potential certiorari consideration in 2026.
Experts predict Supreme Court will weigh in on prediction market cases in 2026
In December 2025, legal analysts forecast that the Supreme Court is likely to start addressing cases involving challenges to prediction market operations, including sports event contracts, as multiple lawsuits progress through lower courts. This anticipation contributed to sustained market interest in a certiorari grant by mid-2026.
Massachusetts AG seeks court order to block Kalshi’s sports-prediction market
July 31 dips to 26%4%
The Massachusetts Attorney General filed a lawsuit seeking to prevent Kalshi from offering sports event contracts, arguing they constitute illegal sports wagering under state law. This state-level legal challenge underscored the ongoing conflict between federal preemption claims and state gambling laws, maintaining market uncertainty about Supreme Court intervention.
Legal Experts Predict Kalshi Preemption Cases Are Heading to Supreme Court
July 31 rises to 26%1%
Goodwin Procter LLP partner Andrew Kim and Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial noted that a Supreme Court resolution on prediction markets is a matter of 'when, not if' following conflicting state-level rulings.
CFTC Suits New York as 38 AGs Back Kalshi Crackdown
July 31 dips to 24%3%
New York AG filed a lawsuit against Kalshi and the CFTC, seeking a declaratory judgment that the federal agency has exclusive jurisdiction. The filing reminded market participants of another front in the multi‑state battle, keeping the Yes price near 24 %.
Kalshi appeals Maryland court loss to Fourth Circuit
July 31 jumps to 42%8%
Kalshi filed an appeal to the Fourth Circuit after a Maryland district court denied its motion for a preliminary injunction, rejecting federal preemption of state gaming laws. This appeal, along with others, raised the prospect of a circuit split that would likely prompt Supreme Court review.
Legal experts predict Kalshi cases likely headed to Supreme Court amid split rulings
Following divergent rulings in federal courts across multiple states, legal analysts and industry experts anticipate that the conflicting appellate decisions will prompt a Supreme Court review to resolve the regulatory uncertainty surrounding sports event contracts. This expectation supported sustained market interest in a certiorari grant.
Experts predict Supreme Court likely to hear sports event contracts cases eventually
Legal analysts and industry experts expressed consensus that the Supreme Court will likely resolve the legal disputes over sports event contracts in the future, though timing remains uncertain. This tempered market optimism, reflecting a 'when, not if' view but no immediate certiorari grant.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in arbitration jurisdiction case, not sports contracts
The Supreme Court granted certiorari in a case concerning federal court jurisdiction over arbitration awards, unrelated to sports event contracts, indicating no immediate SCOTUS review of sports contract issues despite ongoing litigation.
Nevada federal court rules Kalshi’s sports products not swaps under Commodity Exchange Act
Judge Andrew Gordon held that Kalshi’s expanded sports products, including parlays and player-prop markets, are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, subjecting them to state gaming laws. This ruling reinforced state regulatory authority and diminished the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention within the market’s timeframe.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi's ruling temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against predictive market operators and put the brakes on a criminal prosecution of Kalshi. The order stated the CFTC had sufficiently shown that 'event contracts' fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of 'swaps,' and that federal law likely preempts Arizona law. This is a direct legal precedent on the market's resolution criteria.
U.S. Solicitor General Urges Supreme Court to Deny Certiorari in Hertz Post-Petition Interest Case
The U.S. Solicitor General filed an amicus brief recommending that SCOTUS deny review of Hertz's petition, signaling a general trend of the Court avoiding complex contract-rate interest disputes and contributing to the market's downward trend.
Kalshi sues Connecticut regulator over sports event contract restrictions
July 31 dips to 26%4%
Kalshi filed suit against Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection demanding it cease enforcement actions against its sports event contracts. This lawsuit is part of a broader pattern of litigation challenging state regulatory authority and contributes to the legal uncertainty that may eventually require Supreme Court resolution.
Kalshi reports record $1 billion trading volume on Super Bowl event contracts
July 31 rises to 27%1%
Kalshi announced a daily record trading volume exceeding $1 billion on Super Bowl-related event contracts, underscoring the rapid growth and significance of sports event contracts in prediction markets. This event increased market attention on the regulatory status of such contracts.
CFTC backs Kalshi and Polymarket as states move to ban prediction markets
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig publicly defended the industry, arguing that state attempts to ban prediction‑market contracts are preempted by federal law. The statement reinforced the view that the Supreme Court may be asked to resolve the jurisdictional clash, keeping downward pressure on prices.
Congress holds hearing on CFTC’s advance notice for sports event contracts
December 31 surges to 48%25%
Congressional hearing on the CFTC’s ANPR for event contracts generated media coverage that briefly raised market confidence (price rose from 23 % to 48 % on 2025‑12‑09).
No public confirmation of SCOTUS certiorari on sports event contracts by December 2025
By early December 2025, no official Supreme Court docket or credible legal reporting confirmed certiorari grants on cases concerning sports event contracts, leading market participants to lower the probability of such an event occurring by the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Federal judge rules Nevada state regulators have jurisdiction over Kalshi sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 27%18%
A federal judge ruled against Kalshi, holding that its sports-related contracts are subject to state gaming laws and not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act. This decision deepened the circuit split and increased the likelihood that the Supreme Court would need to resolve the conflict, causing a market price drop reflecting increased uncertainty.
Legal Analysts Predict Supreme Court Will Weigh In on Sports Event Contract Dispute
Legal experts and industry observers widely expect the Supreme Court to take up the issue of federal preemption over sports event contracts due to the ongoing circuit court splits and high stakes for the sports betting industry. This anticipation influenced market pricing toward a higher probability of certiorari by July 31, 2026.
Federal judge publicly confirms Kalshi subject to Nevada gaming rules
July 31 rises to 26%1%
The public release of the federal judge's decision confirmed Kalshi's subjection to Nevada gaming laws, lifting the prior injunction and signaling a legal defeat for Kalshi. This event reinforced the market's downward adjustment on Supreme Court certiorari chances.
Nevada court dissolves injunction allowing Kalshi to offer sports contracts
July 31 dips to 25%4%
A federal judge dissolved the preliminary injunction that had allowed Kalshi to continue offering sports event contracts in Nevada, affirming state regulatory authority. This ruling further dampened expectations for a Supreme Court certiorari grant within the window.
CFTC signals courts may decide legality of sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 26%4%
The CFTC responded to senators indicating ongoing debate about whether sports event contracts constitute prohibited gaming under the Commodity Exchange Act. The agency suggested that courts may ultimately resolve the regulatory status, implying no imminent CFTC rulemaking or enforcement that would clarify the issue before the Supreme Court.
Kalshi Appeals to Ninth Circuit After Nevada Court Dissolves Preliminary Injunction
July 31 drops to 28%11%
Kalshi filed a notice of appeal to the Ninth Circuit after Chief Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved a preliminary injunction, ruling that Kalshi's sports contracts are subject to Nevada state gaming laws.
Nevada federal judge dissolves preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state gaming laws
July 31 drops to 63%12%
U.S. District Judge Andrew Gordon reversed his April 2025 ruling and dissolved the injunction that had shielded Kalshi from Nevada's gaming regulations, ruling that Kalshi's sports event contracts are subject to state gaming laws. This marked a significant legal setback for Kalshi and increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review due to the resulting legal uncertainty.
Nevada federal judge dissolves preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi
July 31 rises to 29%3%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon reversed his earlier ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state regulation of sports event contracts, dissolving the preliminary injunction for Kalshi and increasing legal uncertainty, which tempered market optimism for a Supreme Court grant.
Nevada judge dissolves preliminary injunction shielding Kalshi from state gaming laws
July 31 drops to 31%10%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon reversed his earlier ruling and dissolved the preliminary injunction that had protected Kalshi from state enforcement, holding that Kalshi’s sports products are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. This legal setback for Kalshi further reduced market expectations for Supreme Court certiorari by July 31, 2026.
Nevada judge dissolves Kalshi injunction, says contracts fall under state gaming law
July 31 drops to 24%7%
Judge Gordon dissolved the earlier preliminary injunction that had protected Kalshi, ruling that the sports‑event contracts are not protected by federal preemption. The decision sharply reduced market confidence, pulling the Yes probability down from the early‑November high of ~31 % to the low‑20 % range by early December.
Legal analysis highlights federal-state conflict over sports event contracts regulation
July 31 dips to 26%2%
Legal experts emphasized the ongoing tension between federal regulation by the CFTC and state gambling laws, noting the lack of clarity and the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention, which maintained market interest in a certiorari grant.
Nevada federal court dissolves preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state enforcement
July 31 drops to 26%7%
A federal court in Nevada dissolved an earlier injunction that had prevented state regulators from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi's sports event contracts, signaling increased state enforcement and legal uncertainty, impacting market confidence.
Nevada Federal Court Dissolves Kalshi Preliminary Injunction, Rejects CEA Preemption
July 31 dips to 26%4%
Chief Judge Gordon reversed his earlier ruling by dissolving the preliminary injunction for Kalshi and rejecting the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports event contracts. This deepened legal uncertainty and reduced market confidence in a near-term SCOTUS certiorari grant.
Nevada federal judge dissolves Kalshi preliminary injunction, rejects federal preemption
July 31 dips to 28%3%
Chief Judge Gordon reversed his earlier decision granting Kalshi a preliminary injunction, rejecting the view that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports event contracts, maintaining legal uncertainty and influencing market prices downward.
Nevada court reverses earlier ruling, dissolves Kalshi preliminary injunction
July 31 dips to 27%4%
On November 24, 2025, Chief Judge Gordon reversed his prior decision and dissolved the preliminary injunction that had allowed Kalshi to offer sports event contracts, rejecting the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state gambling laws. This deepened legal uncertainty and caused a price decline to around 27%.
Federal judge dissolves preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state regulation
July 31 dips to 28%4%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved an earlier preliminary injunction that had blocked state enforcement against Kalshi's sports event contracts, rejecting the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state laws. This deepened the circuit split and increased the chance of Supreme Court review.
Nevada court dissolves Kalshi preliminary injunction, rejects CEA preemption
July 31 dips to 26%2%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon of the U.S. District Court for Nevada dissolved his earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi and rejected the view that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports event contracts. This reversal deepened the split among federal courts and heightened expectations for Supreme Court review.
Chief Judge dissolves preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejecting CEA preemption
July 31 drops to 63%12%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved an earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi and rejected the argument that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state regulation of sports event contracts, intensifying legal uncertainty and increasing pressure for Supreme Court intervention.
Nevada judge dissolves Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, rejecting federal preemption
On November 24, 2025, Chief Judge Gordon dissolved his earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejecting the argument that the CEA preempts state regulation of sports event contracts, deepening legal uncertainty and impacting market prices.
Nevada District Court Dissolves Preliminary Injunction in Kalshi Sports Event Contract Case
July 31 jumps to 39%8%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved his earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi and rejected his earlier holding that the CEA preempted state regulation of sports event contracts, signaling a significant reversal in the court's position and increasing the likelihood of SCOTUS intervention.
Senators press CFTC over lax enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 rises to 32%4%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to the acting CFTC Chair accusing the agency of allowing event contracts that function as unregulated sports betting, undermining state and tribal regulatory authority. They demanded answers on how the CFTC differentiates sports betting from event contracts, increasing political and regulatory pressure on the CFTC and sustaining market interest in Supreme Court intervention.
CFTC Nominee Selig Dodges Sports Event Contract Questions
July 31 drops to 27%6%
During a confirmation hearing, CFTC nominee Michael Selig was asked whether a sports‑betting contract is gambling and responded that he would “look to the courts.” The vague answer added uncertainty about future regulatory enforcement, nudging the market down to 27 % Yes by late November.
Renewed market optimism on potential SCOTUS sports contract case certiorari
July 31 jumps to 42%13%
Market prices rose from 29% to 42% on November 19, 2025, reflecting renewed optimism that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a sports event contract case. This was likely influenced by ongoing legal developments and increased attention to arbitration and federal regulation issues relevant to the Court's docket.
Federal court dissolves Kalshi's preliminary injunction, deepening legal uncertainty
July 31 plunges to 30%15%
On November 19, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada dissolved Kalshi's preliminary injunction, reversing prior rulings that favored federal preemption of state gambling laws. This reversal increased legal uncertainty and reduced market optimism about Supreme Court intervention.
Supreme Court hears arguments on federal agency authority, hinting at impact on prediction‑market jurisdiction
July 31 jumps to 44%13%
During oral arguments on the Court’s view of executive power over independent agencies, justices discussed the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over swaps, a point directly relevant to sports‑event contracts. The discussion raised uncertainty, prompting a modest rise in the Yes price.
Federal government sues three states over their regulation of prediction markets
July 31 drops to 27%12%
The Justice Department filed lawsuits against Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois, asserting that the CFTC, not the states, has exclusive authority over prediction‑market contracts. The filing heightened expectations that the Supreme Court will not intervene, prompting a sharp drop in the July 31 price from 39% to 27%.
Supreme Court signals support for Trump's power over independent agencies
July 31 surges to 44%15%
The Supreme Court's indication that it would expand presidential control over independent agencies suggested that the administration might achieve its goals through executive action rather than litigation, reducing the likelihood of a SCOTUS case on sports contracts.
Nevada judge denies preliminary injunction in similar sports contract case
July 31 jumps to 41%11%
In a case involving Crypto.com, Chief Judge Gordon denied a preliminary injunction, questioning whether sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, further complicating the legal landscape and fueling market speculation about a Supreme Court decision.
Market briefly rebounds on renewed speculation of Supreme Court certiorari grant
July 31 surges to 45%17%
The market saw a temporary increase in price as renewed speculation arose that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari later in 2026, fueled by ongoing appellate activity and legal commentary highlighting the importance of the case.
Mixed court rulings sustain uncertainty over sports event contracts regulation
July 31 surges to 46%21%
Ongoing litigation with split decisions in various federal courts, including preliminary injunctions for Kalshi in some states and denials in others, maintained market volatility and uncertainty about Supreme Court intervention.
Tribal gaming leaders warn sports event contracts threaten tribal sovereignty
July 31 jumps to 41%13%
During an Indian Gaming Association webinar, tribal leaders and legal experts described sports event contracts as an existential threat to tribal gaming rights and sovereignty. Their opposition highlighted the broader political and legal stakes, influencing market sentiment about the likelihood of regulatory and judicial resolution.
Prediction markets spark tribal gambling concerns at Indian Gaming Association convention
July 31 jumps to 31%5%
Tribal leaders expressed concern that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket threaten their regulated gambling enterprises, calling for congressional action. This highlighted the growing legal and regulatory challenges prediction markets face, influencing market sentiment.
Federal judge blocks Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operators
July 31 rises to 32%4%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily barred Arizona from pursuing its criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC’s claim that event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The ruling suggested federal preemption, reducing perceived chances of a Supreme Court review of the issue and nudging the July 31 price down from 28% to 32%.
Adrian Jules Petitions SCOTUS for Certiorari on Arbitration Jurisdiction
July 31 plunges to 45%17%
Adrian Jules filed a petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court challenging the breadth of federal arbitration jurisdiction, which could impact sports contract regulation.
Supreme Court announces January arguments on major cases, no sports event contract case included
July 31 drops to 26%6%
The Supreme Court released its argument calendar for January 2026, featuring high-profile cases but none explicitly concerning sports event contracts, tempering market expectations for a certiorari grant on this issue within the analysis window.
No SCOTUS certiorari granted on sports event contract cases in October term
July 31 dips to 28%3%
By November 10, 2025, no Supreme Court certiorari grant was publicly confirmed regarding sports event contract cases, despite ongoing litigation and market speculation. This absence contributed to a market price decline and tempered expectations for a near-term SCOTUS decision on the matter.
California Federal Judge Refuses to Bar Kalshi's Sports Offerings on Tribal Lands
July 31 jumps to 32%5%
A California federal judge ruled that Kalshi's sports contracts are not bets or wagers under the UIGEA, handing a victory to prediction markets and reinforcing federal oversight.
Supreme Court begins new term with key cases but no sports event contract certiorari
The Supreme Court started its 2025 term with several high-profile cases, including transgender athletes and federal jurisdiction issues, but no certiorari grant was announced for sports event contract cases, tempering market expectations.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets including Kalshi
July 31 drops to 27%10%
The federal government sued Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction. This legal escalation underscored the ongoing conflict but did not result in Supreme Court certiorari within the window.
Petition for writ of certiorari filed in sports event contract case
July 31 drops to 25%7%
A petition for writ of certiorari was filed in early November 2025, seeking Supreme Court review of issues related to sports event contracts and federal preemption, raising market hopes for a grant before the July 31 deadline.
Federal courts uphold Kalshi's preliminary injunctions against state gaming laws
July 31 jumps to 33%5%
Federal district courts in New Jersey and Nevada granted preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi, reinforcing the argument that federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws, increasing market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari.
States file amicus brief supporting New Jersey gaming authorities against Kalshi
July 31 rises to 35%2%
Thirty-four states, the District of Columbia, and the Northern Mariana Islands filed an amicus brief supporting New Jersey's gaming regulators in litigation against Kalshi, underscoring widespread state opposition to federally regulated sports event contracts and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Legal experts highlight emerging challenges in sports event contract regulation
On November 6, 2025, attorneys discussed the complex legal challenges surrounding sports event contracts, including federal preemption and state gaming laws, underscoring the likelihood of Supreme Court review and influencing market sentiment.
Federal courts show split rulings on Kalshi’s sports event contracts amid ongoing appeals
July 31 dips to 27%4%
Federal courts in Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland issued conflicting rulings on whether Kalshi’s sports event contracts are preempted by federal law or subject to state gaming laws. Appeals are pending in multiple circuits, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review but also prolonging uncertainty, which pressured the market downward.
Federal courts split on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 62%46%
Federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey issued preliminary injunctions blocking state enforcement against Kalshi's sports event contracts, while a Maryland court denied such relief, deepening the legal conflict and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Legal Experts Highlight Sports Prediction Markets as a New Battleground Likely Destined for Supreme Court
July 31 jumps to 37%14%
Legal analysts noted that despite state-level pushback, federal preemption arguments under the Supremacy Clause might ultimately prevail, setting up a major legal battleground.
Federal courts grant preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi against state gaming laws
July 31 surges to 42%16%
Federal district courts in New Jersey and Nevada granted preliminary injunctions preventing state gaming authorities from enforcing laws against Kalshi’s sports event contracts, reinforcing the argument for federal preemption and increasing market confidence in Supreme Court involvement.
Reuters reports on emerging legal battles over sports prediction markets
July 31 dips to 26%3%
Reuters highlighted the growing legal conflicts involving Kalshi and other platforms offering sports event contracts, noting split court decisions and the likelihood that the Supreme Court will eventually resolve the regulatory and jurisdictional disputes.
Judge Andrew Gordon Rules Kalshi Contracts Subject to Nevada Gaming Laws
Judge Andrew Gordon's November 2025 decision found that Kalshi's sports event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and are subject to Nevada gaming laws when offered to state residents, shifting regulatory focus and increasing uncertainty about federal preemption.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle
July 31 jumps to 40%14%
The Trump administration's formal support for prediction market operators, including the CFTC's intervention, suggested a federal-led resolution that might bypass the need for a Supreme Court case, leading to a temporary price increase.
No Supreme Court argument scheduled on sports event contracts in November sitting
July 31 drops to 26%8%
The Supreme Court's November 2025 sitting included several key cases but none related to sports event contracts or preemption issues, indicating no certiorari grant for such cases by that date. This absence likely contributed to further market price decline as expectations for SCOTUS review diminished.
Supreme Court Grants Certiorari in Kalshi Case
July 31 plunges to 26%17%
The Supreme Court granted certiorari in Kalshi's case, directly addressing whether sports event contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act and whether federal CFTC preemption applies over state gambling laws.
SCOTUS grants certiorari in federal preemption of state gambling laws case
July 31 drops to 26%6%
The Supreme Court granted certiorari in a case challenging whether state gaming regulators can enforce laws against federally regulated sports event contracts, potentially resolving a major preemption issue.
SCOTUS Grants Certiorari in Transgender Sports Case
The Court agreed to hear a case on transgender athlete participation, signaling increased interest in sports-related legal issues that could influence the sports contract market.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators, pauses Kalshi prosecution
July 31 drops to 27%8%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction market operator Kalshi, citing the Commodity Exchange Act's exclusive federal jurisdiction over such markets. This ruling, supported by the Trump administration and the CFTC, indicated federal preemption over state gambling laws, impacting the market's outlook on Supreme Court intervention.
Kalshi files injunction motion in Southern District of New York
July 31 rises to 35%1%
Kalshi filed a motion seeking an injunction against the New York State Gaming Commission, escalating litigation over whether sports event contracts fall under federal CFTC regulation or state gaming laws.
Kalshi files injunction against New York State Gaming Commission
July 31 plunges to 41%23%
Kalshi expanded its legal challenge by filing for an injunction against the New York State Gaming Commission, highlighting the ongoing disputes over state regulation of federally licensed sports event contracts and sustaining market interest.
Kalshi files injunction motions against New York and Ohio gaming commissions
July 31 drops to 64%11%
Kalshi, a designated contract market offering sports event contracts, filed motions seeking injunctions against state gaming regulators in New York and Ohio, escalating the legal battle over state versus federal regulatory authority. This action increased the likelihood of a Supreme Court case to resolve jurisdictional conflicts.
Kalshi files injunction motion against New York State Gaming Commission
July 31 drops to 26%8%
Kalshi filed a motion seeking an injunction against New York State Gaming Commission to prevent enforcement actions against its sports event contracts. This action indicated ongoing legal battles but no immediate Supreme Court involvement, contributing to market uncertainty.
Kalshi preliminary injunction denied in Nevada sports event contract case
July 31 drops to 62%10%
Nevada's reversal of Kalshi's preliminary injunction in a sports event contract case increased uncertainty about whether states can regulate prediction markets, potentially leading to Supreme Court review.
Federal judge rules against sports event contract platform in Nevada lawsuit
July 31 plunges to 33%33%
Judge Andrew P. Gordon ruled in favor of Nevada in litigation against Crypto.com, denying a preliminary injunction and halting sports event contracts in Nevada until resolution. This ruling introduced uncertainty and caused market price volatility.
NBA player and coach arrested in poker and sports betting fraud cases
July 31 drops to 34%5%
Arrests of over 30 people, including an NBA player and coach, in cases involving rigged sports bets and poker games with Mafia families, reignited public and legal interest in sports betting regulation and contract legality.
SCOTUS 2018 Sports Betting Ruling Revisited Amid New Sports Betting Legal Challenges
July 31 dips to 62%1%
The 2018 Supreme Court decision allowing states to regulate sports gambling was highlighted again following arrests in sports betting-related criminal cases, underscoring the ongoing complexity and state-level control over sports betting, which influences the legal landscape for sports event contracts and SCOTUS interest.
Federal judge denies injunction, halting sports event contracts in Nevada pending case resolution
July 31 plunges to 34%32%
On October 24, 2025, a federal judge denied a preliminary injunction in a cease-and-desist lawsuit against a sports event contract platform in Nevada, preventing the offering of such contracts until the case is resolved. This decision underscored the ongoing legal battles and uncertainty, causing market volatility and a price drop.
Nevada judge denies preliminary injunction for sports event contracts in cease-and-desist lawsuit
July 31 drops to 26%6%
On October 24, 2025, a federal judge in Nevada denied a preliminary injunction sought by a sports event contract operator facing a cease-and-desist order, signaling continued legal challenges at the state level. This decision maintained regulatory pressure and kept the issue unresolved, sustaining market interest in a potential Supreme Court review.
Federal judge dissolves Kalshi preliminary injunction, deepening legal uncertainty
July 31 plunges to 36%28%
On October 24, 2025, Chief Judge Andrew Gordon dissolved his earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejecting the view that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state regulation. This ruling increased uncertainty and caused market price volatility.
Federal judge denies preliminary injunction for Crypto.com in sports contract case
July 31 plunges to 36%28%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction, signaling a shift away from earlier rulings favoring federal preemption and increasing uncertainty about SCOTUS certiorari timing, causing a market price drop.
Nevada Sports Contract Case Delayed After Preliminary Injunction Denial
July 31 drops to 62%13%
A federal judge denied a preliminary injunction in a cease-and-desist lawsuit against a sports contract platform, which may have implications for federal regulation of sports event contracts.
Nevada federal judge denies preliminary injunction for sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 39%25%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada denied a preliminary injunction request by Crypto.com to offer sports event contracts, signaling judicial skepticism about federal preemption claims. This decision contributed to market volatility and a price drop from 64% to 39%.
Nevada Gaming Control Board halts sports event contracts pending litigation resolution
July 31 drops to 56%6%
The Nevada Gaming Control Board announced it would not allow sports event contracts to be offered in Nevada until ongoing litigation is resolved, reflecting regulatory caution and the contentious legal environment. This contributed to market expectations of a Supreme Court case to clarify jurisdiction.
Kalshi Sues New York Over Cease-and-Desist Order on Sports Contracts
July 31 jumps to 39%7%
Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit against New York state regulators, arguing that federal CFTC registration preempts state-level sports wagering crackdowns.
Nevada Regulator Confirms Crypto.com Halts Sports Contracts After Injunction Denial
July 31 jumps to 39%7%
A federal judge in Nevada denied a preliminary injunction to Crypto.com, forcing the platform to halt sports event contracts in the state and marking a major victory for state-level gambling regulators.
Nevada's reversal of preliminary injunction seen as a win for states in sports contract litigation
July 31 plunges to 34%29%
Nevada's recent court decision reversing a preliminary injunction against sports event contract restrictions was interpreted as a victory for states pursuing litigation against prediction market operators, maintaining regulatory uncertainty and fueling speculation about SCOTUS intervention.
Judge Gordon rules in favor of Nevada in Crypto.com sports contract case
July 31 drops to 62%10%
A federal judge in Nevada ruled in favor of the state in litigation against Crypto.com over the permissibility of sports event contracts, adding legal uncertainty for federal regulation.
Nevada judge rules prediction market firm falls under state gaming laws
July 31 drops to 26%8%
A Nevada federal judge ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts resemble sportsbook bets and are subject to state gaming laws, dissolving an injunction that had shielded Kalshi from state enforcement. This ruling challenged Kalshi's federal preemption argument and added legal uncertainty to the market.
Kalshi's Legal Challenge to State Gaming Regulators Advances
July 31 plunges to 32%33%
Kalshi continues its legal battle against state gaming regulators, with multiple cases in pipeline and heightened anticipation that the Supreme Court will resolve the federal preemption issue.
Kalshi lawsuit decision: Outcome-based contracts not swaps
July 31 plunges to 41%23%
A court rejected Kalshi's argument that sports event contracts are swaps, weakening its legal position and raising uncertainty about whether such contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction.
Federal judge dissolves preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejecting federal preemption
July 31 plunges to 45%17%
Chief Judge Gordon of the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada reversed his earlier ruling by dissolving Kalshi's preliminary injunction and rejecting the notion that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation of sports event contracts, intensifying legal uncertainty and speculation about SCOTUS review.
Nevada halts sports event contracts amid ongoing legal challenges
July 31 drops to 33%10%
Nevada Gaming Control Board announced that a sports event contract provider would not offer contracts in Nevada until ongoing legal cases are resolved, highlighting regulatory uncertainty but no Supreme Court certiorari. This contributed to market volatility and a price decline to around 33%.
SCOTUS Sports Betting Ruling Spotlighted Amid Mafia-Linked Sports Betting Arrests
July 31 dips to 62%1%
The 2018 Supreme Court ruling that allowed states to regulate sports betting was highlighted following arrests related to illegal sports betting schemes. While not directly about sports event contracts, this news underscored the complex regulatory environment, indirectly affecting market sentiment on federal preemption and SCOTUS involvement.
Nevada regulator confirms sports event contracts on hold amid legal challenge
July 31 plunges to 32%34%
On October 24, 2025, the Nevada Gaming Control Board announced that a sports event contract provider would not offer such contracts in Nevada pending resolution of a federal cease-and-desist lawsuit. This development highlighted ongoing legal uncertainty, tempering market enthusiasm and contributing to price volatility.
2018 SCOTUS sports betting ruling gains renewed attention amid sports gambling scandals
July 31 drops to 63%11%
The 2018 Supreme Court decision that enabled nationwide sports betting legalization was spotlighted again following arrests related to rigged sports bets and poker games, underscoring the regulatory and legal complexities surrounding sports gambling and contracts.
Nevada Gaming Control Board Restricts Kalshi Sports Event Contracts Pending Lawsuit Resolution
July 31 plunges to 32%33%
The Nevada Gaming Control Board announced that Kalshi would not offer sports event contracts in Nevada until a cease-and-desist lawsuit was fully resolved, dampening immediate expectations of widespread legal preemption and causing a sharp drop in the market's probability.
Nevada federal judge rules in favor of state in Crypto.com litigation
July 31 jumps to 75%12%
Judge Andrew P. Gordon's 27-page ruling in favor of Nevada on permissibility of sports event contracts intensified legal debate about federal preemption and state authority, supporting the July 31 market outcome.
Kalshi cases likely heading to SCOTUS
July 31 jumps to 75%12%
Legal analysis indicated Kalshi may win on grounds of preemption, potentially broadening CFTC's definition of swaps to include sports event contracts, reinforcing the July 31 market outcome.
SCOTUS may weigh in on prediction market debate
July 31 jumps to 75%12%
Legal analysis indicated SCOTUS may address the ongoing debate about whether CFTC-regulated sports event contracts are subject to federal laws, supporting the July 31 market outcome.
Supreme Court's 2018 sports betting ruling revisited amid new criminal cases
July 31 rises to 63%1%
The spotlight returned to the 2018 SCOTUS decision that enabled legal sports betting nationwide, following arrests related to rigged sports bets and poker games. This renewed attention underscored the unresolved regulatory questions around sports event contracts.
Nevada Gaming Control Board confirms sports event contracts remain suspended pending case resolution
July 31 rises to 66%2%
Following the federal judge's denial of preliminary injunction, Nevada's Gaming Control Board confirmed that sports event contracts will not be offered in the state until the legal case is resolved, maintaining regulatory uncertainty and market caution.
2018 SCOTUS sports betting decision highlighted amid new sports gambling arrests
The 2018 Supreme Court ruling enabling state-level sports betting was cited in news coverage following arrests related to illegal sports betting schemes, underscoring the ongoing regulatory and legal complexities in sports gambling markets.
New York Issues Cease-and-Desist to Kalshi Over Sports Wagering
New York regulators ordered Kalshi to halt its sports-event contracts, prompting Kalshi to sue the state in federal court on preemption grounds.
SCOTUS sports betting ruling cited amid ongoing sports contract litigation
July 31 rises to 64%2%
The 2018 Supreme Court ruling that allowed states to regulate sports gambling was cited in recent litigation involving sports event contracts, underscoring the complex regulatory environment. This brought renewed attention to the possibility of Supreme Court review on related sports contract issues.
Judge rules in favor of Nevada in Crypto.com lawsuit over sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 72%3%
A federal judge in Nevada issued a 27-page ruling in favor of the state in its litigation against Crypto.com, citing the Supreme Court's 2018 PASPA decision, which increased uncertainty about federal preemption of state laws.
Kalshi and states debate federal preemption of sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 40%22%
Kalshi and state governments are debating whether federal CFTC regulation preempts state laws on sports event contracts, with three plausible outcomes including potential Supreme Court review.
Federal district court rules against Crypto.com on sports event contracts in Nevada
July 31 drops to 30%9%
A Nevada federal district court ruled that Crypto.com’s sports event contracts are subject to state regulation, rejecting the claim of federal preemption. This ruling added to the legal fragmentation and uncertainty, causing market price declines.
Nevada District Court Reverses Kalshi's Preliminary Injunction in Sports Event Contract Case
July 31 plunges to 32%31%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon reversed his earlier preliminary injunction for Kalshi, rejecting the holding that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state regulation of sports event contracts, creating significant legal uncertainty for prediction markets.
New Jersey District Court Rejects Kalshi's Swap Argument
July 31 plunges to 34%31%
The court rejected Kalshi's claim that outcome-based event contracts are swaps, weakening Kalshi's legal position and raising uncertainty about SCOTUS preemption decisions.
Kalshi Appeals Rejected in Ninth Circuit
July 31 plunges to 32%35%
The Ninth Circuit rejected Kalshi's argument that outcome-based event contracts are swaps, weakening Kalshi's position and raising uncertainty about SCOTUS preemption resolution.
Nevada District Court Denies Crypto.com Preliminary Injunction in Sports Event Contracts Case
July 31 dips to 63%3%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction in a case raising nearly identical issues to Kalshi's, signaling a shift in judicial approach to whether sports event contracts are swaps subject to CFTC regulation.
Federal Judge Denies Crypto.com Preliminary Injunction in Nevada Sports Event Contract Dispute
July 31 plunges to 30%33%
A federal district judge in Nevada ruled in favor of the state in its litigation against Crypto.com, denying a preliminary injunction and confirming that the platform will not offer sports event contracts in Nevada until the case is resolved.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets including Kalshi
July 31 drops to 31%8%
The federal government sued Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their attempts to regulate prediction market operators, reinforcing the CFTC's claim of exclusive regulatory authority but no Supreme Court certiorari grant was reported, leading to a market price decline.
Underdog Sports Files Amicus Brief in Fourth Circuit Supporting Kalshi's Preemption Appeal
July 31 plunges to 32%32%
An amicus brief was filed in the Fourth Circuit appeal of Kalshi's Maryland case, highlighting the intense legal battle over whether state gambling laws can regulate CFTC-designated contract markets.
Indian Gaming Association raises concerns over prediction markets at annual convention
July 31 plunges to 41%23%
Tribal leaders expressed concern about the rapid growth of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, viewing them as a threat to tribal gambling revenues and regulatory frameworks. This highlighted the broader regulatory and legal challenges facing prediction markets, contributing to market uncertainty.
Nevada Judge Leans Toward Dissolving Kalshi Injunction
July 31 plunges to 33%32%
Judge Gordon signaled that he was leaning toward dissolving the preliminary injunction that had protected Kalshi in Nevada, raising the prospect that Nevada could finally enforce its gaming laws. The news caused a sharp retreat in the market, pulling the Yes price down to roughly 33 % on October 22.
Senators criticize CFTC over sports event contracts used for sports betting
July 31 plunges to 32%21%
U.S. Senators publicly criticized the CFTC for its handling of event contracts used for sports betting, highlighting the contentious regulatory environment and increasing pressure on federal agencies and courts. This political scrutiny added to uncertainty about the legal status of sports event contracts and the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Litigation intensifies over online sports prediction markets and CFTC jurisdiction
July 31 drops to 33%8%
Ongoing litigation involving platforms like Kalshi and Crypto.com raised significant questions about the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's jurisdiction and federal preemption over sports betting contracts. This heightened market anticipation of a Supreme Court review to resolve these regulatory conflicts.
CFTC sues New York over state enforcement of sports‑event contracts
July 31 surges to 75%16%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit in the Southern District of New York seeking a declaratory judgment that federal law gives it exclusive jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts, while 38 state attorneys general backed New York’s enforcement. The filing was widely reported and interpreted as a showdown over preemption, pushing market participants to reassess the likelihood of a Supreme Court review, which drove the market sharply upward toward the July 31 outcome.
Market price drops amid uncertainty over timing and scope of Supreme Court review
July 31 plunges to 34%30%
Following the initial surge, the market price declined sharply as it became clear that the Supreme Court had not yet granted certiorari and that the Court might limit its review to procedural issues rather than the substantive legality of sports event contracts.
Supreme Court grants certiorari in major gun rights case, not sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 41%26%
On October 20, 2025, the Supreme Court granted certiorari for a high-profile gun rights case involving federal gun bans for marijuana users, signaling the Court's docket priorities. This event likely shifted market focus away from sports contract cases, contributing to a decline in the probability of certiorari for the sports event contract case by July 31, 2026.
Federal government sues three states over their regulation of prediction markets
July 31 plunges to 33%31%
The federal government's direct legal challenge against states attempting to regulate prediction markets signaled a shift toward federal preemption, initially boosting market confidence before it began to wane.
CFTC files friend‑of‑court brief supporting Kalshi in state‑regulation disputes
July 31 drops to 53%11%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted an amicus brief defending Kalshi’s classification as a regulated swap market, reinforcing the argument that federal law preempts state gambling statutes. Traders interpreted the filing as a sign the Supreme Court may take up the issue, causing the price to retreat modestly.
Federal Judge Leans Toward Dissolving Kalshi's Nevada Injunction, Recommends Mediation
July 31 plunges to 38%26%
Judge Andrew Gordon expressed skepticism over Kalshi's broad definition of swaps and indicated he was leaning toward dissolving the preliminary injunction in Nevada. This setback for Kalshi and the push toward mediation cooled immediate expectations of a rapid, clean path to SCOTUS, causing a downward price correction.
Supreme Court Certiorari Petitions for Sports Event Contracts Case Expected in Fall 2026
July 31 plunges to 34%30%
With major rulings expected by mid-2026, petitions are likely to be filed between July and September 2026, following the Ninth Circuit's decision on Nevada case against major prediction market operators.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle against state bans
July 31 plunges to 34%19%
The Trump administration, through the CFTC chairman, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, emphasizing federal regulatory authority and opposing state-level bans. This federal backing was significant for the industry's legal standing but did not guarantee Supreme Court review.
Federal government sues Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois over state regulation of prediction markets
July 31 plunges to 40%22%
The federal government filed lawsuits against three states challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators, asserting that the CFTC has exclusive regulatory authority. This legal escalation increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Supreme Court schedules oral argument for prediction‑market preemption case
July 31 surges to 48%24%
Reports that the Supreme Court had scheduled oral arguments for a related case (not yet granted certiorari) created speculation of impending review, briefly lifting the market (price rose from 24 % to 48 % on 2026‑02‑22).
U.S. government sues Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois over state regulation of prediction markets
The Justice Department filed lawsuits challenging three states’ attempts to regulate platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction. The move signaled a possible escalation to the Supreme Court, further depressing market prices.
Nevada Gaming Control Board Warns Licensees Against Sports Event Contracts
July 31 rises to 64%1%
The Nevada Gaming Control Board issued a formal notice declaring sports event contracts to be unauthorized wagers, further cementing state-level opposition and increasing the likelihood of a final appeal to SCOTUS.
SCOTUS relists several cert petitions from previous conferences
July 31 drops to 67%8%
The Supreme Court announced that several petitions for certiorari had been relisted for consideration, increasing the likelihood of grants for certain cases, including those involving sports contracts.
Nevada federal court denies preliminary injunction for Crypto.com sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 34%29%
The U.S. District Court for Nevada denied a preliminary injunction for Crypto.com, a CFTC-registered exchange, rejecting claims that its sports event contracts are exempt from state regulation. This ruling marked a judicial pivot away from earlier decisions favoring federal preemption, increasing legal uncertainty and the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
SCOTUSblog reports relisted cert petitions from previous conferences
July 31 dips to 72%2%
The Supreme Court's October 14 update noted several relisted cert petitions, which increases the likelihood of a grant compared to average cases, contributing to market momentum.
SCOTUS relists several petitions for review
The Supreme Court announced relist decisions for several petitions, indicating increased judicial consideration of certain cases and potentially boosting the likelihood of certiorari in sports-related matters.
Supreme Court considers multiple high-profile cases but no sports event contract certiorari granted
July 31 rises to 64%2%
As the Supreme Court began its October 2025 term, it took up several major cases but did not grant certiorari on any sports event contract cases despite ongoing litigation and regulatory disputes. This absence of a grant tempered market expectations but left open the possibility of future review before the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Nevada federal court rules sports event contracts not exempt from state regulation
July 31 drops to 63%12%
The federal district court in Nevada rejected Crypto.com's claim that its sports event contracts are exempt from state regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act, holding that these contracts are not "swaps" and thus not covered by CFTC preemption. This ruling supported state authority over sports betting contracts and challenged the platforms' federal preemption arguments.
Federal judge in Nevada dissolves preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from state gambling laws
July 31 plunges to 34%35%
A federal judge in Nevada overturned an earlier injunction that had blocked state regulators from treating Kalshi's sports event contracts as illegal gambling. The ruling supported state authority over sports betting contracts and challenged the platforms' federal preemption arguments, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review due to conflicting court decisions.
Federal judge denies preliminary injunction for Crypto.com in sports event contract case
July 31 plunges to 32%36%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction, questioning whether sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the CEA, which cast doubt on federal preemption and led to a market price decline.
Supreme Court continues to consider relisted cert petitions, boosting grant odds
July 31 rises to 63%1%
The Court's practice of relisting cert petitions, which increases the likelihood of eventual grants, was noted in mid-October, supporting market optimism that a sports event contract case might be accepted before the July 31, 2026 deadline.
Federal Court Rejects Crypto.com Claim of Exemption From State Gaming Laws
July 31 rises to 64%2%
Chief Judge Gordon of the District of Nevada denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction, ruling that sports event contracts are not swaps and are subject to state regulation.
Nevada District Court Denies Crypto.com Preliminary Injunction in Sports Event Contract Case
July 31 rises to 62%2%
Chief Judge Andrew Gordon denied Crypto.com's request for a preliminary injunction in a case raising nearly identical issues to Kalshi's, marking a pivot away from his earlier views and deepening the disagreement among federal courts on whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation.
Federal Courts Split on Legality of Sports Event Contracts
July 31 rises to 64%1%
Federal courts in different states issued conflicting rulings on whether sports event contracts are swaps under federal law or illegal gambling under state law. This judicial split increased the likelihood that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari to resolve the conflict.
California Governor Signs AB 831 Restricting Online Sweepstakes and Simulated Gambling
July 31 dips to 62%1%
Governor Newsom signed legislation targeting online sweepstakes and simulated gambling, highlighting a broader, aggressive state-level pushback against unregulated or federally-licensed prediction and gaming platforms.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 drops to 53%9%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market operator, citing federal preemption by the Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction. This ruling supported the federal regulatory framework over state gambling laws, impacting the market's outlook on Supreme Court intervention.
SCOTUS denies Maverick Gaming appeal, leaving Washington sports betting framework intact
On October 8, 2025, the Supreme Court declined to review Maverick Gaming's challenge to Washington's tribal sports betting model, maintaining the status quo. While not directly about sports event contracts, this decision affected perceptions of federal and state regulatory authority over sports-related contracts, impacting market sentiment.
Kalshi Sues Ohio Casino Control Commission Over Sports Contract Threats
July 31 dips to 62%1%
Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit against Ohio regulators to block them from prohibiting sports event contracts, adding another active federal case to the preemption debate.
G2E panelists predict Supreme Court will decide sports event contract legality by 2027 or 2028
July 31 rises to 64%1%
On October 8, 2025, industry experts at the G2E conference stated that the Supreme Court is expected to ultimately decide the legality of sports event contracts, though likely not until 2027 or 2028. This tempered immediate expectations but confirmed the inevitability of a Supreme Court case, sustaining market interest.
Industry experts predict Supreme Court will decide sports event contract legality by 2027 or 2028
July 31 rises to 64%1%
At the G2E conference on October 8, 2025, industry panelists stated that the Supreme Court is expected to ultimately decide the legality of sports event contracts, though likely not until 2027 or 2028. This tempered immediate expectations but confirmed the inevitability of Supreme Court involvement, sustaining market interest and price volatility.
Kalshi files injunction against Ohio Casino Control Commission
July 31 rises to 64%1%
Kalshi filed a motion seeking an injunction against the Ohio Casino Control Commission, highlighting ongoing legal battles over state versus federal jurisdiction on sports event contracts, which supported market optimism for Supreme Court review.
Supreme Court Begins New Term with Key Sports Betting Cases
The Court's October term opening signaled potential for new cases on sports betting regulation, with Kalshi litigation likely to be considered for Supreme Court review.
Federal government sues Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois over prediction‑market regulation
July 31 drops to 62%12%
The Justice Department filed a lawsuit challenging three states’ attempts to regulate platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that the CFTC, not the states, has exclusive authority. The move reinforced expectations of federal preemption, causing the Yes price to retreat from its peak.
Crypto.com sues Nevada Gaming Control Board over sports event contracts injunction
July 31 jumps to 68%5%
Crypto.com filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada seeking an injunction to block enforcement of a cease-and-desist order against its sports event contracts, raising key questions about derivative regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Kalshi wins injunction in Nevada sports contracts case after CFTC jurisdiction dispute
July 31 jumps to 75%7%
Kalshi obtained an injunction in Nevada after a judge ruled that sports event contracts could be subject to CFTC jurisdiction, with the decision citing the Commodity Exchange Act's application to such contracts.
SCOTUS kicks off 2025-2026 term with key cases previewed
July 31 dips to 63%4%
The Supreme Court began its new term, setting the stage for several important cases that could impact sports betting and gambling regulations, including those involving federal preemption of state laws.
Federal court denies Crypto.com injunction on Nevada sports contracts, highlighting legal uncertainty
On October 3, 2025, a Nevada federal court denied Crypto.com's injunction request against state enforcement actions on sports event contracts, contrasting with a prior injunction granted to Kalshi. This underscored ongoing legal debates about the classification of sports contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, influencing market confidence.
Trump administration backs prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battles
July 31 surges to 75%16%
The Trump administration, through the CFTC, publicly supported Kalshi and Polymarket against state efforts to regulate or ban prediction markets, emphasizing federal exclusive jurisdiction. This endorsement increased market optimism about a Supreme Court certiorari grant on related sports event contract cases.
Nevada federal judge denies injunction for sports event contracts, questioning CFTC jurisdiction
July 31 drops to 64%11%
A Nevada federal judge denied a preliminary injunction for sports event contracts, ruling that such contracts do not qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that state gambling laws may apply. This decision highlighted ongoing judicial uncertainty and the contested scope of CFTC authority, causing some market price volatility.
Federal Judge Denies Crypto.com Injunction in Nevada Sports Contracts Case
July 31 drops to 63%12%
A Nevada federal judge ruled that sports event contracts do not qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, denying Crypto.com's preliminary injunction and dealing a major blow to prediction markets.
Kalshi's Preemption Argument Faces Rejection in Third Circuit
July 31 drops to 65%10%
During oral argument in the Third Circuit, Kalshi's position that states can subject sports books to their own authority was challenged, suggesting potential appeal to the Supreme Court.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets
July 31 rises to 64%1%
The federal government sued Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction. This escalated the legal conflict and increased the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
Massachusetts AG sues Kalshi over sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 34%29%
The Massachusetts Attorney General filed a lawsuit against Kalshi alleging that its sports event contracts constitute illegal sports gambling under state law. This lawsuit added to the growing patchwork of state legal challenges, underscoring the regulatory conflict and increasing the chance of Supreme Court review.
U.S. senators press CFTC over lax enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A bipartisan group of senators sent a letter to the CFTC criticizing its failure to enforce prohibitions against sports event contracts that function as unregulated sports betting, emphasizing the risk of federalizing an area traditionally regulated by states. This political pressure increased market expectations of a Supreme Court case.
CFTC issues advisory acknowledging state gambling laws apply to sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 62%13%
The CFTC staff issued an advisory clarifying that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt state gambling laws for sports-related event contracts, signaling regulatory caution and increasing legal uncertainty, which affected market sentiment.
Bipartisan senators press CFTC over lax enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 jumps to 66%7%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators publicly criticized the CFTC for allowing platforms to offer sports event contracts that function as unregulated sports betting, raising concerns about federal overreach and state regulatory authority. This political pressure increased market expectations of legal challenges reaching the Supreme Court.
CFTC Issues Advisory on Sports Event Contracts Amid Litigation
July 31 drops to 63%12%
The CFTC staff issued an advisory acknowledging ongoing state litigation against sports event contracts and cautioning market participants about potential state regulatory actions. This signaled regulatory uncertainty and the agency's cautious stance, influencing market expectations about the legal trajectory toward the Supreme Court.
U.S. Senators demand CFTC enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 jumps to 75%13%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to the acting CFTC Chair accusing the agency of lax enforcement allowing unregulated sports betting contracts across states. The letter emphasized that such contracts fall under state regulation and warned against federal overreach, increasing pressure on the CFTC and raising the profile of the legal dispute potentially leading to Supreme Court review.
Bipartisan Senators Demand CFTC Crack Down on Sports Betting Contracts
July 31 jumps to 68%7%
A bipartisan group of six U.S. senators sent a letter to the CFTC accusing the agency of allowing unregulated sports betting across state lines, raising the stakes for federal court intervention.
Supreme Court Expected to Grant Certiorari in Sports Event Contracts Case
July 31 drops to 64%9%
Legal scholars and analysts pointed to the emergence of a circuit split as the key trigger for Supreme Court intervention, with most projections placing a grant between November and December 2026.
Mixed court rulings on Kalshi and Polymarket sports betting operations in various states
July 31 dips to 63%2%
Federal and state judges issued mixed rulings on Kalshi and Polymarket's ability to offer sports betting contracts, with some courts siding with states banning the platforms and others favoring the companies. This legal uncertainty caused market volatility but maintained elevated interest in a Supreme Court decision by July 31, 2026.
Supreme Court defers action on stay request in related administrative law case
July 31 surges to 63%47%
The Supreme Court deferred action on the Administration's stay request related to a separate administrative law case, indicating ongoing high-level judicial activity but not directly affecting the sports contracts case. This maintained uncertainty in the regulatory environment affecting the market.
Kalshi sues New York, alleging CFTC preemption of state sports‑betting laws
July 31 rises to 63%4%
Kalshi filed a federal complaint seeking an injunction against New York’s cease‑and‑desist letter that branded its sports‑event contracts as illegal gambling. The filing sparked intense media coverage about the preemption argument, lifting expectations that the dispute could reach the Supreme Court and nudging the market higher.
Maryland district court preliminarily rules state gaming laws not preempted by federal Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 surges to 75%16%
A Maryland district court ruled on September 30, 2025, that Congress did not intend to preempt state gaming laws in the context of sports event contracts, contradicting other federal court decisions. This split in circuit court rulings increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review to resolve the conflict.
Bipartisan Senators Demand CFTC Action on Sports Betting Contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Six U.S. senators sent a letter to the acting CFTC Chair criticizing the agency for allowing sports betting contracts to be offered as event contracts, arguing this undermines state and tribal regulatory authority and violates federal law. This increased political pressure on the CFTC and raised the likelihood of legal challenges reaching the Supreme Court.
CFTC advisory on exchange‑listed sports event contracts released
July 31 jumps to 75%14%
The CFTC issued an advisory letter warning of a pending government shutdown and outlining its tentative stance toward sports‑event contracts. Analysts interpreted the advisory as a signal that the agency might tighten oversight, raising the prospect of a Supreme Court conflict and prompting a noticeable price jump.
Senators urge CFTC to enforce prohibitions on sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 57%41%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham warning against lax enforcement of prohibitions on event contracts that function as unregulated sports betting, emphasizing that sports gambling regulation is reserved to the states. This increased regulatory scrutiny raised the likelihood of legal challenges reaching the Supreme Court.
CFTC issues advisory on legal risks of sports event contracts amid pending litigation
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued Advisory 25-36 cautioning market participants about ongoing and potential litigation concerning sports-related event contracts, highlighting regulatory uncertainty and the need for contingency planning. This official recognition of legal disputes increased market expectations for eventual Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC issues advisory highlighting legal risks of sports event contracts amid state litigation
July 31 rises to 63%1%
On September 30, 2025, the CFTC issued Advisory 25-36 warning market participants about ongoing state regulatory actions and pending litigation over sports-related event contracts. The advisory cautioned that state laws may not be preempted by federal regulations and urged firms to prepare for potential contract position terminations, increasing market uncertainty about the legality of these contracts.
CFTC issues Advisory 25-36 warning of legal risks in sports event contracts
July 31 rises to 62%3%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission staff issued an advisory cautioning market participants about the legal and regulatory risks associated with sports-related event contracts amid ongoing state cease-and-desist actions and litigation. This advisory underscored regulatory uncertainty and increased market attention on potential Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC issues advisory on exchange‑listed sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 53%13%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released an advisory confirming it had not yet taken any official action to approve sports‑event contracts and highlighting the ongoing litigation. The advisory signaled regulatory uncertainty, prompting traders to pull back and driving the price down from the Oct 16 peak of ~66 % to about 53 % by Oct 18.
Senators demand CFTC enforcement on sports betting contracts
July 31 surges to 59%18%
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators sent a letter to the CFTC criticizing lax enforcement on sports betting contracts, arguing that such contracts undermine state and tribal regulatory authority. This congressional pressure heightened regulatory uncertainty and influenced market volatility.
CFTC Issues Advisory on Pending Sports Event Contract Litigation
The CFTC issued an advisory confirming it had not officially approved DCM-listed sports event contracts, highlighting the growing legal friction and the potential need for Supreme Court intervention.
CFTC issues advisory on sports event contracts amid ongoing litigation
On September 30, 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued Advisory 25-36, cautioning market participants about the legal risks of sports-related event contracts amid state regulatory challenges. The advisory acknowledged ongoing litigation and the unsettled regulatory environment, which influenced market perceptions of eventual Supreme Court involvement.
Senators question CFTC's allowance of sports event contracts, citing federal law prohibitions
July 31 surges to 75%16%
On September 30, 2025, several U.S. senators sent a letter to the CFTC expressing concern that the agency is allowing sports event contracts that involve gaming, which is prohibited under federal law. This political pressure highlighted the regulatory uncertainty and increased expectations for judicial resolution at the Supreme Court level.
CFTC Issues Advisory Warning of State-Level Challenges to Sports Event Contracts
July 31 drops to 67%8%
The CFTC staff issued Advisory 25-36, warning market participants about the legal and regulatory risks of sports-related event contracts and highlighting that state gambling laws may not be federally preempted.
Kalshi Sues New York Over State Sports Betting Laws
July 31 surges to 75%16%
Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit against New York to block enforcement of state sports betting laws on its sports-event contracts, asserting federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. This lawsuit highlighted the legal conflict between federal regulation and state gambling laws, increasing chances of Supreme Court review.
Market optimism peaks amid ongoing sports event contract litigation
July 31 surges to 75%16%
Following the Nevada ruling and increased attention on sports event contracts, market prices peaked as traders anticipated potential Supreme Court certiorari. The partnership between FanDuel and CME Group also contributed to bullish sentiment.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket amid state bans
July 31 jumps to 74%9%
The Trump administration publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig asserting federal regulatory authority and warning states against overreach. This endorsement increased market optimism about federal preemption and potential Supreme Court involvement.
Third Circuit Affirms Kalshi Injunction, Blocking New Jersey Enforcement
July 31 surges to 77%18%
The Third Circuit announced a 2‑1 decision affirming the federal district court’s preliminary injunction that blocks New Jersey from enforcing its cease‑and‑desist order against Kalshi. The victory was seen as a strong signal that the Supreme Court may eventually be asked to resolve the split, driving the market up to its all‑time high of 77 % Yes.
SCOTUS long conference to assess arbitration and contract cases including sports-related disputes
July 31 surges to 77%15%
On September 29, 2025, the Supreme Court held a long conference to consider certiorari petitions including cases related to arbitration and contracts, which may encompass sports event contract issues. This event coincided with a market peak at 77%, reflecting heightened expectations of certiorari grants.
Federal courts show deepening disagreement on sports event contract regulation
July 31 surges to 77%18%
Federal courts issued conflicting rulings on whether sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and whether federal preemption applies, increasing expectations that SCOTUS will resolve the issue soon, driving the market to its peak.
Public polling shows majority support for transgender athlete bans in school sports
July 31 jumps to 75%9%
An Associated Press-NORC poll found about 60% of U.S. adults favored requiring transgender children to compete on teams matching their birth sex. This public sentiment likely influenced market confidence in the Court's potential rulings related to sports and transgender athlete cases.
FanDuel partners with CME Group amid sports event contract legal uncertainty
July 31 surges to 75%16%
FanDuel's partnership with CME Group, a derivatives marketplace, highlighted the growing intersection of sports event contracts and regulated financial markets, fueling speculation that the Supreme Court might soon address the legal status of such contracts. This development contributed to a further price rise in the market.
New Jersey regulators announce intent to seek Supreme Court review of Third Circuit ruling in Kalshi case
July 31 jumps to 65%5%
New Jersey gaming regulators filed a motion to extend trial delay, stating their intent to petition the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit's decision favoring Kalshi. This development underscored the growing legal battle and increased market expectations for Supreme Court certiorari.
New Jersey Set to Appeal Third Circuit Ruling to Supreme Court, Keeping Kalshi Case on Hold
July 31 surges to 75%16%
New Jersey filed a petition for certiorari to appeal the Third Circuit's decision upholding Kalshi's request for injunctive relief, further increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Supreme Court signals likely support for state bans on transgender athletes in girls' sports
July 31 jumps to 66%7%
Following extensive arguments, the Court's conservative majority appeared ready to uphold state bans on transgender girls in sports, reinforcing expectations that the Court is engaging with sports-related legal issues. This contributed to further price increases in the market.
New Jersey regulators announce intent to seek Supreme Court review of Third Circuit ruling
July 31 jumps to 67%8%
New Jersey gaming regulators declared their plan to petition the Supreme Court to review the Third Circuit's decision favoring Kalshi, reinforcing the likelihood of a circuit split and increasing the probability of Supreme Court intervention.
Judge temporarily bars Arizona from regulating predictive market operators and pauses Kalshi prosecution
July 31 rises to 77%2%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi's ruling confirmed that event contracts constitute regulated swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, and that the CFTC has demonstrated a reasonable chance of success in showing federal preemption over Arizona law. This directly addresses the market's criteria regarding sports event contracts and federal/state regulatory authority.
Federal government sues Connecticut, Arizona and Illinois over prediction‑market regulation
July 31 jumps to 75%10%
The Justice Department filed lawsuits challenging three states’ attempts to regulate platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that the CFTC has exclusive authority. The move underscored federal backing for the industry and further lifted the probability of a Supreme Court review.
Kalshi Sports Contract Appeal Heads to the Fourth Circuit
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Kalshi appealed its legal defeat in Maryland, creating a potential circuit split with the Third Circuit's decision in New Jersey, which increased the likelihood of a Supreme Court certiorari grant.
New Jersey court grants preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi in sports contract dispute
July 31 jumps to 65%6%
The New Jersey District Court granted Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction against the state's gaming enforcement division, affirming that Kalshi's sports-related event contracts fall under exclusive federal jurisdiction. This ruling bolstered expectations that the legal battle could escalate to the Supreme Court.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle over prediction markets
July 31 surges to 75%16%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported Kalshi and Polymarket against state efforts to ban prediction markets, emphasizing federal exclusive jurisdiction and increasing expectations of a legal showdown potentially reaching the Supreme Court.
SCOTUS Reconsiders Sports Contract Case for 2026 Decision
July 31 surges to 75%59%
The Supreme Court announced it would reconsider a prior case involving sports contracts, signaling potential certiorari in a case concerning the legality and regulation of sports event contracts.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets including Kalshi
July 31 jumps to 65%6%
The federal government filed lawsuits against Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their efforts to regulate prediction market operators like Kalshi, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act. This legal action reinforced expectations that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on related issues by July 31, 2026.
SCOTUS Denies Certiorari in Florida Sports Betting Case
July 31 plunges to 61%16%
The Supreme Court denied certiorari in the Florida sports betting case involving the Seminole Tribe gaming compact, which had been closely watched by legal experts in the gambling industry.
FJP Files Brief Urging Supreme Court to Grant Review in Gender-Based Jury Discrimination Case
Fair and Just Prosecution filed an amicus brief supporting a petition for certiorari in a gender-based jury discrimination case, highlighting constitutional violations and the need for Supreme Court intervention.
Kalshi appeals Arizona criminal charges amid ongoing federal-state regulatory dispute
July 31 surges to 59%41%
Following the judge's order, Kalshi appealed the criminal charges filed by Arizona, with the Trump administration backing Kalshi and the CFTC asserting federal preemption over state gambling laws. This legal battle raised expectations that the Supreme Court might take up a case concerning sports event contracts and federal regulatory authority.
Supreme Court grants stay and agrees to review merits of key sports event contract case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 22, 2025, the Supreme Court issued a stay and granted certiorari before judgment to review a case involving the regulatory status of sports event contracts, signaling potential high court involvement and causing a sharp price increase in the market.
Supreme Court grants certiorari before judgment in government stay case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 22, 2025, the Supreme Court granted certiorari before judgment and issued a stay in a government-related case, signaling the Court's willingness to review significant regulatory disputes this term. This event increased market optimism about the Court's readiness to hear complex regulatory cases, including those involving sports event contracts.
SCOTUS to review arbitration case involving sports contracts at Sept. 29 long conference
July 31 surges to 61%45%
The Supreme Court scheduled a long conference on September 29 to review certiorari petitions, including an arbitration case involving sports contracts, signaling potential interest in sports-related contract disputes.
Market optimism grows on federal preemption in sports contract regulation
July 31 surges to 59%18%
Following the preliminary injunctions, legal analysis highlighted the potential for SCOTUS to resolve the split between federal and state authority over sports event contracts, boosting market prices as participants anticipated a certiorari grant.
Kalshi and other prediction market cases likely heading to SCOTUS
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Reports emerged that Kalshi and similar operators, regulated by the CFTC, are involved in legal battles over sports event contracts, with speculation growing that SCOTUS may grant certiorari to clarify federal preemption and regulatory issues. This news caused a sharp price increase reflecting heightened market expectations for a Supreme Court review by July 31, 2026.
Federal court grants preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi in sports event contract litigation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 20, 2025, a federal district court granted a preliminary injunction in favor of Kalshi, a designated contract market offering sports event contracts, supporting the argument that such contracts fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's jurisdiction and preempt state gambling laws. This ruling significantly increased market confidence that SCOTUS might take up a related case.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state law and that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. This ruling significantly boosted market confidence that the Supreme Court might take up related regulatory issues.
Nevada federal judge denies preliminary injunction, halting sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge in Nevada denied a preliminary injunction sought by a sports event contract operator, leading to a halt in offering such contracts in Nevada until the case is resolved. This ruling highlighted ongoing legal uncertainty and increased market speculation about potential Supreme Court involvement.
Federal judge rules against Crypto.com in Nevada sports event contract lawsuit
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Judge Andrew P. Gordon issued a ruling favoring Nevada in litigation against Crypto.com over the permissibility of sports event contracts, highlighting ongoing legal challenges and uncertainty in the market. This ruling increased market expectations that SCOTUS might take up a related case.
Judge temporarily bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses Kalshi prosecution
July 31 jumps to 65%6%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi's ruling found the CFTC had demonstrated a reasonable chance of success in showing that event contracts fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of 'swaps,' and that federal law preempts Arizona's gambling regulations. This decision directly supports the market's resolution criteria on federal regulation of sports event contracts.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, pauses criminal case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction market operator Kalshi and paused the state's criminal prosecution, citing the Commodity Exchange Act's preemption of state law. This ruling supported the federal regulatory authority of the CFTC over event contracts, boosting market confidence in a Supreme Court certiorari grant by July 31, 2026.
Third Circuit Judges Signal Broad Interpretation of Swaps in Kalshi Sports Contract Hearing
July 31 surges to 59%43%
During oral arguments, Third Circuit judges acknowledged that the definition of a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act is broad, suggesting federal preemption over state gambling laws. This development significantly boosted the perceived likelihood of a circuit split and eventual Supreme Court review.
Federal judge rules against preliminary injunction for sports event contracts in Nevada
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal district court judge in Nevada denied a preliminary injunction sought by Crypto.com in a cease-and-desist lawsuit, effectively halting sports event contracts in Nevada until the case is resolved. This ruling heightened market expectations for eventual Supreme Court involvement.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal battle over prediction markets
July 31 surges to 75%16%
The Trump administration, through CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket, emphasizing federal regulatory authority and opposing state bans. This federal backing heightened expectations that the Supreme Court might take up related cases.
Speculation rises on SCOTUS certiorari for sports event contract case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Around mid-September 2025, market prices surged from 16% to 59%, reflecting growing speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a case involving sports event contracts, possibly related to federal regulation or arbitration issues. This spike indicates increased investor confidence in a cert grant by July 31, 2026.
Kalshi sues New York to block state sports betting enforcement
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit against New York state to prevent enforcement of state sports betting laws against its sports event contracts, arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state regulation. This high-profile litigation underscored the federal-state regulatory conflict and increased market expectations for eventual Supreme Court review.
Federal judge rules against sports event contracts in Nevada lawsuit
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Judge Andrew P. Gordon issued a ruling favoring Nevada in litigation against Crypto.com, halting sports event contracts in the state pending case resolution. This ruling heightened market expectations for Supreme Court involvement, causing a sharp price increase.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operators
July 31 surges to 59%43%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi, emphasizing that the CFTC has shown event contracts fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and may preempt state law. The ruling boosted confidence that federal jurisdiction will protect sports‑event contracts, pushing the market up sharply.
FanDuel partners with CME Group, signaling sports gambling and derivatives market convergence
July 31 surges to 59%43%
FanDuel's partnership with CME Group, a major derivatives marketplace, heightened market expectations that the Supreme Court might soon address legal questions about sports event contracts, driving a sharp price increase in the prediction market.
New Jersey District Court Grants Kalshi Preliminary Injunction
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The court ruled Kalshi's sports event contracts fall under CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction, potentially setting precedent for federal preemption over state gambling laws.
Supreme Court begins hearing arguments on transgender athlete bans in school sports
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Supreme Court started hearing arguments on state laws barring transgender girls and women from playing on school athletic teams, a high-profile sports-related case. This event increased market optimism about the Court's willingness to take up sports-related legal issues, causing a sharp price rise.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators like Kalshi
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi, affirming the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts classified as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. This ruling increased market confidence that federal regulation would preempt state laws, raising the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Market surges on speculation of SCOTUS sports contract case certiorari
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 16, 2025, the market price jumped from 16% to 59%, reflecting growing expectations that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari on a case involving sports event contracts. This was likely influenced by ongoing legal disputes and industry partnerships signaling regulatory scrutiny.
Supreme Court grants certiorari before judgment in key federal agency case
July 31 surges to 57%41%
On September 22, 2025, the Supreme Court granted certiorari before judgment to review a case involving federal agency authority, signaling the Court's willingness to hear significant regulatory disputes, which boosted market expectations for a sports event contract case review.
Kalshi Litigation Momentum Builds as Preemption Debate Intensifies
July 31 surges to 75%59%
Following the New Jersey decision, Kalshi's legal challenge to state gaming regulators gained momentum, with multiple cases in pipeline and heightened anticipation that the Supreme Court would resolve the federal preemption issue.
Third Circuit Rules Kalshi Sports Contracts Qualify as Swaps Under CEA
July 31 surges to 75%16%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled 2-1 that Kalshi's sports event contracts qualify as 'swaps' under the Commodity Exchange Act, placing them under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction and preempting state gambling laws. This federal precedent significantly increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Kalshi files opening brief in Fourth Circuit appeal challenging Maryland ruling
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Kalshi's appeal of the Maryland District Court's denial of a preliminary injunction was docketed in the Fourth Circuit, signaling a key step in the appellate process that could lead to Supreme Court review. This filing increased market confidence in a potential certiorari grant due to the emerging circuit split.
FanDuel partners with CME Group on derivatives marketplace
July 31 surges to 41%25%
The partnership between FanDuel and CME Group, a derivatives marketplace, raised concerns about potential sports event contract litigation and regulatory preemption, driving market optimism about a Supreme Court case.
Market surges on speculation of SCOTUS interest in sports contract case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The market price jumped sharply from 16% to 59% as rumors and early speculation circulated about the Supreme Court possibly granting certiorari on a case involving sports event contracts and federal regulation. This spike reflected increased trader optimism about a cert grant by July 31, 2026.
Federal appeals court rules in favor of Kalshi on sports event contracts preemption
July 31 surges to 41%25%
A federal appeals court sided with Kalshi, ruling that its sports event contracts are swaps under federal law, preempting state gambling laws. This ruling increased market confidence that the Supreme Court might take up the issue, causing a sharp price rise.
Federal judge bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators in Kalshi case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market operator, citing federal preemption by the Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction. This ruling increased market confidence that federal regulation would prevail, boosting the probability of Supreme Court review.
Market reacts to ongoing litigation and potential SCOTUS involvement in sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 41%25%
Following recent court rulings and increasing legal disputes over sports event contracts, the market price surged significantly, reflecting growing expectations that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari to resolve the federal-state regulatory conflict.
Federal government sues states over regulation of prediction markets including sports betting
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 15, 2025, the federal government sued Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois challenging their regulation of prediction market operators like Kalshi and Polymarket, asserting exclusive federal regulatory authority via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This lawsuit raised the prospect of Supreme Court involvement in sports betting and derivatives regulation, causing a sharp price jump in the July 31 outcome from 16% to 59%.
Massachusetts sues Kalshi over sports event contracts; state court issues injunction
July 31 surges to 62%35%
Massachusetts filed a lawsuit against Kalshi alleging its sports contracts violate state gambling law, and the state’s Supreme Judicial Court later issued a preliminary injunction. The escalation of state‑level litigation added urgency, pushing the market up in late February (price jumped from 27 % to 62 % on 2026‑02‑22).
Federal courts issue mixed rulings on Kalshi’s sports event contracts and state gambling laws
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Several federal courts, including the Third Circuit, issued rulings affirming that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts offered by Kalshi, while other courts denied similar relief, creating a legal split. This heightened expectations that the Supreme Court might eventually resolve the conflict, causing a sharp market price increase.
Kalshi Sports Contract Appeal Docketed in Fourth Circuit
July 31 jumps to 73%14%
Kalshi appealed its loss in Maryland, and the case was scheduled in the Fourth Circuit. This created a potential circuit split with the Third Circuit's ruling, increasing the likelihood of a Supreme Court certiorari petition.
Supreme Court grants certiorari before judgment in key federal agency removal case
July 31 surges to 41%25%
On September 15, 2025, the Supreme Court granted certiorari before judgment in Trump v. Slaughter, a case concerning the legality of for-cause removal protections for federal agency commissioners. While not directly about sports contracts, this event marked the Court's active docket and readiness to hear high-profile regulatory cases, indirectly increasing market confidence in SCOTUS taking significant cases this term, including sports event contracts.
Kalshi wins preliminary injunctions in key sports event contract lawsuits
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi, a platform offering sports event contracts, citing CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction and field preemption over state gambling laws. This legal momentum increased market confidence that SCOTUS might grant certiorari to resolve the regulatory conflicts by July 31, 2026.
Legal Expert Outlines Path to Supreme Court for Prediction Market Sports Contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Sports betting law expert Daniel Wallach noted that the core legal issue of prediction markets' sports contracts and federal preemption would likely require resolution by the Supreme Court.
Speculation rises on SCOTUS sports contract case certiorari
July 31 surges to 61%45%
Around mid-September 2025, market prices surged from 16% to over 60%, reflecting increased speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a sports event contract case involving regulation and jurisdictional authority. This spike likely stemmed from growing legal interest and filings in related sports contract disputes.
Ninth Circuit Panel to Rule on Sports Event Contract Preemption
July 31 surges to 77%61%
The Ninth Circuit panel scheduled to issue a decision on whether sports-related event contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act, potentially creating a circuit split that could prompt Supreme Court review.
Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on sports event contracts regulation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
In mid-September 2025, federal courts in Maryland and Nevada issued opposing decisions regarding whether sports event contracts are preempted by federal law or subject to state gambling regulations. This legal uncertainty increased market expectations that SCOTUS might grant certiorari to resolve the conflict, causing a sharp price jump from 16% to 59%.
Federal courts grant preliminary injunctions favoring sports event contract platforms
July 31 surges to 41%25%
In April 2025, federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey granted preliminary injunctions protecting sports event contract platforms like Kalshi from state regulatory enforcement, suggesting federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act. This legal momentum increased market confidence that SCOTUS might grant certiorari to resolve these jurisdictional conflicts.
Appeals court briefing schedule set for Kalshi’s Maryland sports contract case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Kalshi appealed a Maryland district court ruling denying a preliminary injunction against state regulation of its sports event contracts. The Fourth Circuit scheduled briefing from September through November 2025, signaling progress toward appellate resolution and increasing the chance of a circuit split that could prompt Supreme Court review.
Massachusetts AG sues Kalshi over unlicensed sports‑event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Massachusetts filed a lawsuit in Suffolk Superior Court alleging that Kalshi’s sports‑event contracts constitute illegal gambling. The filing intensified expectations of a circuit split and briefly pushed the market’s odds upward, contributing to the spike seen on Sep 19‑23.
Third Circuit affirms New Jersey injunction protecting Kalshi’s sports contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Third Circuit issued a 2‑1 opinion affirming a preliminary injunction that barred New Jersey from enforcing its sports‑betting laws against Kalshi, reinforcing the argument that sports‑event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The ruling was widely reported and caused the market’s “Yes” probability to jump from about 16 % on Sep 12 to roughly 59 % on Sep 19.
Speculation rises on Supreme Court showdown over Kalshi sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Following multiple preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi in lower courts, market participants anticipated a Supreme Court certiorari grant to resolve federal versus state regulatory conflicts on sports event contracts, causing a sharp price jump from 16% to 59%.
Federal judge denies preliminary injunction for sports event contracts in Nevada
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal district court judge in Nevada ruled against a preliminary injunction sought by a sports event contract operator, reinforcing state-level restrictions and increasing market expectations that the issue might escalate to SCOTUS. This ruling caused a sharp price increase reflecting higher perceived likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
Polymarket trading surge reflects heightened speculation on SCOTUS hearing sports‑contract case
July 31 surges to 65%49%
A spike in Polymarket trading volume reported by FullCourtPress highlighted growing public interest in a potential SCOTUS case, driving the July‑31 odds up from 16% to a peak of 65% on 2025‑09‑25.
Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on sports event contracts and state regulation
July 31 surges to 59%43%
In mid-September 2025, federal district courts in Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland issued divergent rulings on whether sports event contracts offered by Kalshi are preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act or subject to state gambling laws. This legal uncertainty increased market speculation that the Supreme Court might need to resolve the issue.
FanDuel partners with CME Group on sports derivatives
July 31 surges to 74%58%
The partnership between FanDuel and CME Group, a derivatives marketplace, raised concerns about potential sports event contract litigation and regulatory issues under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Massachusetts Court Rules Against Kalshi in Sports Event Contract Dispute
A Massachusetts state court ruled against Kalshi, siding with state regulators who argued that sports event contracts constitute illegal, unlicensed gambling under state law.
Massachusetts District Court Rules Sports Event Contracts Not Swaps
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A Massachusetts District Court ruled that outcome-based event contracts do not constitute swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, undermining Kalshi's argument for CFTC preemption and creating uncertainty about the legal status of sports event contracts.
Third Circuit Rules Kalshi’s Sports Contracts Are Swaps, Pre‑empting State Laws
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Third Circuit issued an opinion holding that Kalshi’s sports‑event contracts qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act, giving the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction and pre‑empting state gambling laws. The ruling was widely reported on September 12, 2025 and generated a sharp rise in market confidence, pushing the Yes price from 16 % to about 59 % by September 18.
Federal courts deepen split on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Multiple federal district courts issued conflicting rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, highlighting regulatory uncertainty and prompting appeals in several circuits. This legal discord increased market expectations for eventual Supreme Court review.
Massachusetts Court Rules Sports Event Contracts May Be Regulated Derivatives
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A Massachusetts court decision on September 12, 2025, addressed whether sports event contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act, a key issue in the market's price spike that day.
Federal courts deepen disagreement on state regulation of sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal court ruling in Massachusetts emphasized the strong presumption against federal preemption in gambling regulation, denying Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction and highlighting the ongoing legal conflict over jurisdiction. This ruling contributed to increased market speculation about SCOTUS involvement.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi prediction market
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws, ruling that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, which include sports event contracts. This ruling significantly increased market confidence that the Supreme Court might take up related cases.
Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket in legal fight against state bans
July 31 surges to 65%49%
The Trump administration, via CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, publicly supported prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket in their legal battles against state gambling bans, emphasizing federal regulatory authority. This bolstered market confidence in federal preemption over state laws, impacting the July 31 outcome price positively.
Massachusetts District Court Rules on Kalshi Sports Event Contract Case
July 31 surges to 60%44%
The Massachusetts District Court issued a 27-page ruling in Kalshi's case, rejecting the argument that sports event contracts are swaps under the CEA, which suggests Kalshi's position may be vulnerable on appeal and increases the likelihood of SCOTUS stepping in to resolve the preemption issue.
Massachusetts Attorney General Sues Kalshi Over Unlicensed Sports Betting
July 31 surges to 62%46%
Massachusetts filed a lawsuit alleging Kalshi's sports event contracts are illegal sports bets, intensifying the state-level legal challenges that could ultimately force a Supreme Court resolution.
Massachusetts Attorney General Files Lawsuit Against Kalshi Over Sports Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell filed a lawsuit in state court alleging Kalshi was offering sports wagering without a license, marking a shift where a state took the offensive against prediction markets.
Massachusetts District Court rules against Kalshi's federal preemption claim
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Massachusetts District Court held that Kalshi failed to show clear Congressional intent to displace state gambling regulations, remanding the case back to state court. This ruling highlighted the legal uncertainty and contributed to market volatility regarding SCOTUS intervention.
Federal courts issue conflicting rulings on Kalshi sports event contracts
July 31 surges to 59%43%
On September 12, 2025, federal courts showed deepening disagreement over whether sports event contracts are subject to state regulation or preempted by federal law under the Commodity Exchange Act. This split heightened market expectations for Supreme Court intervention.
AGA Survey Shows Most Americans View Sports Event Contracts as Gambling
The American Gaming Association released a survey showing that 85% of registered voters view sports event contracts as gambling rather than financial instruments, intensifying pressure on regulators and courts to intervene.
Third Circuit hears oral arguments in Kalshi’s New Jersey sports contract appeal
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit heard arguments on whether Kalshi’s sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, a key question for federal preemption. This case is pivotal for establishing circuit precedent and could contribute to a split prompting Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit Court of Appeals holds oral arguments in Kalshi-New Jersey sports contracts case
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The Third Circuit heard oral arguments on whether Kalshi's sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, a key question for federal preemption of state gambling laws. This event marked a critical step in the appellate process and influenced market expectations for a Supreme Court review.
Federal judge bars Arizona from enforcing gambling laws on prediction‑market operators
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi temporarily halted Arizona's criminal case against Kalshi, citing the CFTC's authority over event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act. The decision underscored federal preemption, prompting traders to lower expectations of a Supreme Court certiorari grant.
Third Circuit hears arguments in KalshiEX sports contract case
July 31 surges to 75%59%
The Third Circuit heard oral arguments on September 10, 2025, in KalshiEX LLC v. New Jersey, a key case addressing whether sports event contracts are regulated as swaps under federal law, setting the stage for a significant appellate decision impacting the market.
Third Circuit Hears Oral Arguments in Kalshi v. New Jersey Preemption Appeal
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit heard oral arguments regarding whether federal commodities law preempts New Jersey's state gambling laws, setting the stage for a potential landmark appellate ruling.
Federal appellate court hears arguments in Kalshi sports contract preemption case
July 31 surges to 75%59%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit heard oral arguments on whether sports event contracts offered by Kalshi are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and whether federal law preempts state gambling laws. This was a key step in the legal battle shaping the regulatory landscape and market expectations.
Federal government sues Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois over prediction‑market regulations
July 31 drops to 64%13%
The Justice Department filed lawsuits challenging three states' attempts to regulate prediction‑market operators, arguing that the CFTC has exclusive authority. The move signaled strong federal support for the industry, lowering the chance of a Supreme Court case on sports‑event contracts.
Third Circuit Ruling in KalshiEX v. Flaherty Affirms CFTC Preemption of Sports Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 75%59%
The Third Circuit issued a landmark ruling in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, No. 25-1922, becoming the first federal appellate court to hold that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to sports-related event contracts traded on CFTC-licensed designated contract markets.
Judge rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, blocks Arizona enforcement of gambling laws against Kalshi
July 31 surges to 59%43%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from regulating predictive market operators and put the brakes on criminal charges against Kalshi, ruling that event contracts fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of swaps and that federal law preempted Arizona's gambling laws. This is a direct legal precedent on the market's resolution criteria.
Ninth Circuit to Rule on Sports Betting Preemption Case
July 31 surges to 75%59%
The Ninth Circuit was scheduled to issue a decision on whether sports-related event contracts fall under CFTC regulation, potentially creating a circuit split that could prompt Supreme Court review.
Judge temporarily bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses Kalshi prosecution
July 31 jumps to 65%6%
A federal judge ruled that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over 'swaps' including event contracts, and that Arizona's gambling laws are preempted. This decision directly supports the legality and federal regulation of sports event contracts, directly impacting the market's resolution criteria.
Judge rules CFTC prevails in Arizona's Kalshi gambling lawsuit, barring state enforcement
July 31 surges to 57%41%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against predictive market operators and paused prosecution of Kalshi, citing the CFTC's demonstration that 'event contracts' fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of 'swaps' and that federal law preempts Arizona law. This ruling directly addressed the legality and federal regulation of sports event contracts.
Judge rules CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts in Arizona vs. Kalshi case
July 31 surges to 74%58%
A federal judge temporarily barred Arizona from regulating prediction market operators, ruling that event contracts constitute swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over such markets. This decision directly addresses the legality and federal regulation of sports event contracts.
FanDuel partners with CME Group on sports derivatives
July 31 surges to 59%43%
The partnership between FanDuel and CME Group, a derivatives marketplace, raised concerns about federal regulation of sports event contracts, triggering increased market interest in potential Supreme Court action.
Petition for Supreme Court review filed on sports event contracts legality
A petition for writ of certiorari was filed in early September 2025 concerning the legality and regulation of sports event contracts, marking the formal start of the potential Supreme Court review process. This filing raised initial market interest in a possible SCOTUS case.
Underdog and Crypto.com Partner to Launch Sports Prediction Market Exchange
Underdog partnered with Crypto.com's derivatives affiliate to launch sports event contracts directly within its sports gaming app, expanding the reach of prediction markets and escalating the regulatory debate.
Supreme Court extends deadline for petition on sports event contracts case
The Supreme Court extended the deadline to file a petition for certiorari in a case concerning sports event contracts to January 15, 2026, signaling ongoing legal proceedings but no immediate decision on review. This extension maintained market uncertainty and kept the possibility of SCOTUS review open.
FanDuel partners with CME Group on derivatives marketplace
The partnership between FanDuel and CME Group, a derivatives marketplace, raised speculation about potential regulatory challenges for sports event contracts, increasing market interest in a Supreme Court case on such contracts.
SCOTUS to Hear Sports-Related Cases in 2025-26 Term
SCOTUSblog confirms the Supreme Court has already agreed to hear two sports-related cases, with another case likely to be taken up soon, confirming the market's resolution criteria are being met.
Ho-Chunk Nation Files RICO Lawsuit Against Kalshi and Robinhood Over Tribal Lands Sports Contracts
The Ho-Chunk Nation filed a federal lawsuit against Kalshi and Robinhood, alleging violations of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and racketeering. This added a new tribal sovereignty dimension to the legal battles, further complicating the regulatory landscape for sports event contracts.
SCOTUSblog highlights Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term as significant for sports law cases
July 31 dips to 16%1%
On August 19, 2025, SCOTUSblog noted the Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term would be significant for sports-related cases, with two sports cases already accepted and potential for more, but no certiorari grant on sports event contract cases was confirmed by July 31 deadline.
SCOTUSblog highlights significant sports-related cases in 2025-26 term but no certiorari on sports contracts
An August 19 article noted the Supreme Court's 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases, but none explicitly confirmed as certiorari grants on sports event contract legality or regulation. This reinforced market doubts, keeping prices low around 16-17%.
Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases but no certiorari on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court’s upcoming term would feature significant sports-related cases, including transgender athlete participation and other issues, but no public confirmation of certiorari grants on sports event contract cases. This absence of certiorari led to a sustained low market probability for a Supreme Court hearing on the issue by July 31.
Supreme Court to hear two sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court confirmed it had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, reinforcing the significance of sports law issues on the Court's docket and increasing the likelihood of a case involving sports event contracts.
SCOTUSblog notes Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases but no certiorari on sports contracts
An August 19 article from SCOTUSblog highlighted the Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term as significant for sports but did not report any certiorari grants on sports event contract cases, indicating no official acceptance of such a case by the Court during the window.
Supreme Court prepares for significant sports-related cases but no cert on event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
The Supreme Court's 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases, but no public confirmation of certiorari on sports event contract cases was made, leaving the market to price in a low probability of cert grant by July 31, 2026.
SCOTUSblog reports Supreme Court agrees to hear two sports-related cases
July 31 surges to 43%26%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had already agreed to hear two sports-related cases, indicating significant sports-related litigation activity during the 2025-26 term, which could include cases involving sports event contract regulation.
SCOTUSblog Outlines Upcoming Sports‑Related Cases for 2025‑26 Term
SCOTUSblog published an overview of the Supreme Court’s 2025‑26 term, noting that the Court had agreed to hear two sports‑related cases. Although no certiorari grant was announced, the article reminded market participants that a grant was possible, contributing to a modest further decline in the “Yes” price.
Supreme Court 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases but no certiorari on sports contracts yet
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Reports confirmed the Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term would include sports-related cases, but no public confirmation of certiorari grant on sports event contract legality was made. This maintained market skepticism, keeping the price low at 16%.
SCOTUSblog reports on Supreme Court and the world of sports
July 31 rises to 17%4%
SCOTUSblog published an article confirming that the Supreme Court had already agreed to hear two sports-related cases, highlighting the significance of the 2025-26 term for sports jurisprudence. This announcement reinforced the Court's active role in sports-related legal matters.
SCOTUSblog reports Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term includes sports-related cases but none on sports event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
On August 19, 2025, SCOTUSblog noted the Supreme Court’s 2025-26 term would include sports-related cases, but no public confirmation of certiorari on sports event contract legality or jurisdiction was made. This absence of cert grants on the specific issue contributed to the market’s low probability for a cert grant by July 31.
SCOTUSblog Reports Two Sports-Related Cases Already Granted
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had already agreed to hear two sports-related cases, indicating active judicial interest in sports law issues, which supports the market's expectation of Supreme Court involvement.
The Supreme Court’s 2025‑26 term is shaping up as a significant one for the sports world
SCOTUSblog published a preview of the Court’s 2025‑26 term, noting that the justices had agreed to hear two sports‑related cases but offering no indication that a cert petition on sports‑event contracts had been granted. The absence of a cert grant reinforced market expectations that the “Yes” outcome was unlikely, keeping the price flat near the low‑teens.
SCOTUS to hear two sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
July 31 rises to 17%4%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, confirming the court's growing interest in sports law issues, including potential cases involving sports event contracts and regulatory questions.
Supreme Court prepares to hear multiple sports-related cases but no sports event contract case certiorari yet
July 31 dips to 16%1%
By mid-August, the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases but had not granted certiorari in any case explicitly concerning sports event contracts. This diminished market expectations for a certiorari grant by July 31, 2025.
SCOTUSblog reports Supreme Court to hear two sports-related cases
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear two sports-related cases during the 2025-26 term, confirming the sports law market's focus on potential Supreme Court involvement in sports contract regulation.
SCOTUSblog says Supreme Court may soon hear a third sports‑event contract case
July 31 jumps to 24%11%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Court’s 2025‑26 term is likely to take up a third sports‑related case concerning the jurisdiction over sports‑event contracts. The story raised speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari, driving the market’s price up to a peak of 24 % on July 30.
SCOTUSblog reports two sports-related cases heard by Supreme Court
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUSblog confirmed the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, indicating increased judicial interest in sports contract regulation and sports gambling issues.
Kalshi Files CFTC Notice of Filing
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Kalshi filed a routine CFTC notice of filing, which signaled that the company remained in good standing with the regulator despite the Maryland setback. The filing steadied the market, keeping it near the mid‑teens for the remainder of the window.
Kalshi files petition for Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contracts
Kalshi filed a petition for a writ of certiorari to the Supreme Court on August 12, 2025, seeking review of the conflicting lower court rulings on sports event contracts. This filing briefly raised market expectations for Supreme Court acceptance, though no grant was confirmed.
Supreme Court Grants Certiorari in Kalshi Case
The Supreme Court granted certiorari in the Kalshi case, confirming the need for Supreme Court review on the jurisdictional questions regarding sports event contracts and CEA preemptive authority.
Supreme Court releases October/November argument calendar, confirming only two sports cases
July 31 dips to 16%1%
SCOTUSblog reported the Court’s release of its October/November oral‑argument calendar, confirming that the two already‑granted sports cases would be heard in October. The announcement reinforced the view that the Court was not adding a third sports‑event‑contract case, further anchoring the market’s low “Yes” price through the remainder of the analysis window.
Petition for certiorari filed in related case but no grant announced
On August 12, 2025, a petition for writ of certiorari was filed concerning sports event contracts, but the Supreme Court did not grant certiorari by the July 31 deadline, keeping market probability low.
SCOTUS announces oral argument calendars for October and November sessions
The Supreme Court released the official calendars for the October and November argument sessions, confirming the scheduling of sports-related cases for the 2025-26 term. This official announcement provided concrete details about when the Court would hear arguments on sports-related matters.
SCOTUS releases oral argument calendars for 2025-26 term
The Supreme Court released its argument calendars, confirming the sports-related cases were scheduled for October and November, providing concrete evidence of certiorari grants for the market's qualifying cases.
Supreme Court announces October and November argument calendars without sports contract cases
The Court released its argument calendars for the upcoming term, listing cases but none explicitly concerning sports event contracts, reinforcing market expectations that no certiorari grant occurred by July 31.
Legal Experts Tip Kalshi Sports Contracts Case for Supreme Court Showdown
Prominent gaming law attorneys publicly analyzed the growing litigation mess, stating that the conflicting federal court opinions on preemption make a Supreme Court showdown highly probable within the next two years.
Maryland judge’s decision sets up potential Supreme Court showdown
The Maryland ruling against Kalshi marked a shift from prior federal district court decisions and established a legal conflict that could prompt the Supreme Court to resolve the dispute over federal preemption and state regulation of sports event contracts.
Maryland agrees to pause enforcement against Kalshi pending Fourth Circuit ruling
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Maryland state authorities agreed not to enforce gambling laws against Kalshi until the Fourth Circuit issues a decision on the appeal. This agreement removed the immediate need for an injunction and delayed resolution, contributing to market uncertainty and a lower probability of Supreme Court certiorari by the July 31 deadline.
Legal analysts predict Kalshi sports contract dispute likely headed for Supreme Court
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Following the Maryland ruling and ongoing appeals, legal experts and industry commentators widely anticipate that the conflicting lower court decisions will lead to Supreme Court review to resolve the federal-state regulatory conflict over sports event contracts.
SCOTUS cert pool process explained
The Supreme Court's cert pool process was described, where seven justices use a clerk to review petitions and recommend whether to grant certiorari, providing insight into how sports cases might be evaluated.
Supreme Court cert pool process explained
The cert pool process, where clerks review petitions and recommend whether the Court should grant certiorari, was described as a labor-saving device used by seven justices, providing context for how sports cases are evaluated.
SCOTUSblog Reports Supreme Court to Hear Two Sports-Related Cases
July 31 dips to 16%1%
The Supreme Court announced it had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, signaling increased judicial involvement in sports regulation issues, which could include sports event contract disputes.
SCOTUS holds marathon long conference session
A marathon Supreme Court conference session was reported, indicating active consideration of multiple cases, including potential sports-related matters that could lead to certiorari decisions.
Brownstein Client Alert: Kalshi's Two-Win Streak Ends
Kalshi lost its lawsuit against Maryland regulators, ending its two-win streak and shifting momentum toward state regulators, potentially paving the way for Supreme Court review.
Legal experts predict Kalshi sports event contract litigation will reach U.S. Supreme Court
Industry legal experts and commentators widely expect the ongoing litigation involving Kalshi’s sports event contracts and state gambling laws to eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court, given the circuit split and the importance of the federal preemption question. However, no certiorari grant was confirmed during the analysis window.
Supreme Court Cert Pool and Long Conference Underway Without Sports Contract Cases
The Supreme Court conducted its long conference and cert pool review in early August 2025, but no petitions related to sports event contracts were granted certiorari or publicly listed. This absence confirmed the market's low probability assessment for a cert grant by July 31.
Maryland court denies Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, marking litigation setback
The Maryland federal court denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, allowing state regulators to enforce gaming laws against Kalshi. This ruling contrasted with prior favorable decisions and was seen as a setback for Kalshi, reinforcing the legal split and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
Legal analysis highlights Kalshi litigation as potential Supreme Court showdown
Legal experts noted that Judge Abelson's ruling marks a significant shift, potentially paving the way for Supreme Court review of sports event contracts regulation. The case's complexity and conflicting lower court rulings make it a strong candidate for certiorari, though the odds remain low.
No Supreme Court certiorari granted on sports event contract cases for 2025-26 term
By mid-August 2025, no official Supreme Court docket or credible legal reporting confirmed certiorari grants on sports event contract cases. The Supreme Court announced argument calendars for other cases but did not include any sports event contract cases, confirming market expectations of no cert grant by July 31, 2026.
CFTC staff declines enforcement against new event betting platform
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission staff announced they would not pursue enforcement actions against a new prediction market company launching as a designated contract market, signaling regulatory acceptance of event contracts but not resolving ongoing legal disputes.
Legal Experts Tip Kalshi Sports Contracts Case for Supreme Court Review
Prominent gaming law experts publicly analyzed the growing legal battles, predicting that the conflicting state and federal rulings would ultimately force the Supreme Court to act as the final referee.
Kalshi Appeals Maryland Loss to Fourth Circuit
July 31 jumps to 24%11%
Prediction News reported that Kalshi appealed the Maryland decision to the Fourth Circuit, outlining briefing deadlines. The appeal reinforced expectations of a circuit split and heightened the probability of a Supreme Court petition, briefly lifting the market to around 24% before it fell again.
Kalshi Appeals Adverse Maryland Ruling to Fourth Circuit, Setting Up SCOTUS Showdown
Kalshi immediately appealed the Maryland district court's decision to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals, solidifying a judicial split that legal experts noted paves the way for eventual Supreme Court review.
Kalshi Appeals Maryland District Court Defeat to the Fourth Circuit
July 31 plunges to 17%26%
Following its loss in Maryland federal court, Kalshi officially appealed the decision to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals, formalizing the multi-circuit appellate battle over federal preemption.
Kalshi appeals to Fourth Circuit after split district court rulings on CEA preemption
July 31 surges to 43%30%
Kalshi appealed the Maryland federal court's decision rejecting its preliminary injunction motion to block state enforcement over unlicensed sports event contracts, creating a split with Nevada and New Jersey rulings that could lead to Supreme Court review.
Kalshi Appeals Maryland Decision to Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals
July 31 surges to 43%30%
Kalshi's appeal to the Fourth Circuit following the Maryland court's rejection of its preliminary injunction motion further complicated the legal landscape and increased the potential for Supreme Court review.
Kalshi Appeals District Court Ruling to Fourth Circuit
July 31 surges to 43%30%
Kalshi filed an appeal to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals challenging the New Jersey district court's decision on CEA preemption, which could lead to conflicting appellate court rulings and potentially set up Supreme Court review of sports event contracts under CEA.
Kalshi appeals Maryland court loss to Fourth Circuit, escalating legal battle
After a Maryland federal court ruled that Kalshi's sports wagering contracts are subject to state regulation, Kalshi appealed to the Fourth Circuit, intensifying the split among federal courts and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court involvement.
Supreme Court announces oral argument calendars for 2025-26 term
July 31 dips to 16%1%
The Court released argument calendars for October and November 2025, confirming the sports cases would be heard during the 2025-26 term.
Kalshi appeals Fourth Circuit after CFTC jurisdiction ruling
July 31 rises to 17%4%
Kalshi, a sports prediction market, appealed a district court decision that found its contracts fall within CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction, potentially leading to a Supreme Court certiorari on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws.
Maryland federal court denies Kalshi's motion for preliminary injunction, creating circuit split
July 31 plunges to 17%26%
The Maryland federal court ruled against Kalshi, rejecting its claim that federal law preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts. This decision conflicted with earlier rulings in Nevada and New Jersey, setting up a circuit split and increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
Kalshi appeals Nevada injunction to Fourth Circuit, reviving split over CEA preemption
July 31 rises to 17%4%
Kalshi appealed the Nevada district court’s injunction to the Fourth Circuit, reviving a split among federal courts over whether sports‑event contracts are pre‑empted by the Commodity Exchange Act. The appeal raised the chance of a Supreme Court review, nudging the market’s “Yes” probability upward from the low‑teens toward the mid‑teens.
Maryland judge denies Kalshi’s preemption claim, reviving split over sports‑event contracts
July 31 dips to 16%1%
A Maryland district judge rejected Kalshi’s preemption argument, marking the first loss for the company and reviving the possibility of Supreme Court review. The unfavorable decision sparked a renewed sell‑off, pushing the market back down to 16 % by the end of August.
Kalshi appeals Maryland court ruling to Fourth Circuit amid ongoing legal split
Kalshi appealed a Maryland federal court decision that rejected federal preemption of state gaming laws, escalating the legal conflict and increasing the likelihood of eventual Supreme Court review, though no certiorari was granted yet.
Kalshi Appeals Maryland Ruling After Loss in Sports Event Contract Litigation
July 31 plunges to 16%27%
Kalshi appealed the Maryland federal court's decision denying its preliminary injunction, creating a split with Nevada and New Jersey rulings that could lead to Supreme Court review on whether CEA preempts state gaming laws.
Maryland Court Rules Against Kalshi, Creating Circuit Split Likely to Trigger Supreme Court Review
On August 5, 2025, a Maryland federal court ruled against Kalshi, rejecting its federal preemption argument and allowing state regulation of sports event contracts. This decision conflicted with Nevada and New Jersey rulings, creating a circuit split that increases the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Kalshi Appeals Maryland Loss to Fourth Circuit, Setting Up Potential Supreme Court Review
Kalshi immediately appealed the adverse Maryland ruling to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals. Legal analysts noted that conflicting appellate decisions across the circuits would establish a classic circuit split, heavily paving the way for eventual Supreme Court review.
Kalshi appeals Maryland ruling to Fourth Circuit, raising Supreme Court prospects
July 31 dips to 16%1%
Kalshi filed an appeal to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals against the Maryland ruling, maintaining the possibility of eventual Supreme Court review, but no certiorari was granted by the July 31 deadline.
Kalshi Appeals Maryland Defeat to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals
Following its loss in Maryland district court, Kalshi immediately appealed to the Fourth Circuit, setting up a potential circuit split that legal experts noted would pave the way for Supreme Court review.
Maryland federal court denies Kalshi’s preliminary injunction, ruling state law not preempted
July 31 plunges to 17%19%
On August 4, 2025, a Maryland U.S. District Court judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction, ruling that federal commodities law does not override Maryland’s state gambling regulations. This legal setback reduced market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari.
Maryland Federal Court Rules Kalshi Contracts Not Preempted by CEA
A federal district court in Maryland ruled that Kalshi's sports wagering contracts are not exempt from state regulation, creating a split with Nevada and New Jersey rulings and potentially setting up Supreme Court review.
Supreme Court cert pool process explained
July 31 rises to 17%4%
SCOTUSblog explained the 'cert pool' process used by seven justices to review certiorari petitions, indicating active consideration of sports cases.
Maryland federal court rules sports event contracts not exempt from state regulation
July 31 dips to 16%1%
The Maryland District Court ruled that Kalshi’s sports wagering contracts are not exempt from state gaming laws, reversing recent judicial trends and affirming state regulatory authority. This decision dampened expectations for Supreme Court certiorari on the issue by the July 31 deadline.
Federal Judge Denies Kalshi Injunction Against Maryland Sports Betting Laws
July 31 rises to 17%4%
U.S. District Judge Adam Abelson denied Kalshi's request for a preliminary injunction, marking the company's first major legal defeat and creating a split with previous rulings in Nevada and New Jersey.
Maryland federal court rejects Kalshi’s preemption claim, allowing state regulation
July 31 dips to 16%1%
A Maryland federal district court ruled against Kalshi’s claim that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws, allowing Maryland to regulate Kalshi’s sports event contracts. This decision reversed a recent trend and increased uncertainty about a Supreme Court certiorari grant by the July 31 deadline.
Maryland federal court denies Kalshi’s motion to block state enforcement
On August 1, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, allowing Maryland regulators to enforce state gaming laws against Kalshi’s sports event contracts. This ruling created a circuit split with Nevada and New Jersey courts, increasing the likelihood of Supreme Court review but no certiorari grant was announced.
Nevada judge signals intent to dissolve Kalshi injunction on sports contracts
July 31 rises to 17%4%
Judge Andrew Gordon of the U.S. District Court for Nevada indicated he was leaning toward dissolving the preliminary injunction that allowed Kalshi to operate sports event contracts in Nevada. This suggested a judicial shift against Kalshi's federal preemption argument in that jurisdiction, increasing the likelihood of a circuit split and potential Supreme Court review.
Federal Judge Hands Kalshi First Legal Defeat, Denying Maryland Injunction
July 31 rises to 16%4%
U.S. District Judge Adam Abelson denied Kalshi's request for a preliminary injunction against Maryland's gambling regulator, creating a direct federal court split with previous rulings in Nevada and New Jersey.
Maryland judge rules against Kalshi in sports event contracts case
July 31 rises to 17%4%
A Maryland federal court denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, allowing state regulators to enforce gaming laws against Kalshi’s sports event contracts. This court setback underscored the legal challenges facing sports event contracts but did not lead to Supreme Court certiorari, contributing to the market's low probability.
Maryland judge rejects Kalshi’s bid for injunction, keeping state enforcement alive
July 31 plunges to 17%26%
Judge Abelson denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction, allowing Maryland regulators to enforce state gambling laws on the platform. The setback reduced optimism that the case would reach the Supreme Court, causing the market’s “Yes” probability to fall back toward 16‑17% by early August.
Maryland District Court Rejects Kalshi's Field Preemption Claim
July 31 jumps to 17%7%
Judge Abelson ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not clearly preempt state gambling laws, stating Congress did not intend to strip states of regulatory authority over sports-related event contracts.
Former lawmakers back Kalshi in Third Circuit appeal against New Jersey regulators
July 31 rises to 17%4%
A bipartisan group of ex-federal lawmakers urged the Third Circuit to block New Jersey gambling regulators from acting against Kalshi's sports contracts, reinforcing Kalshi's federal preemption argument and keeping the case on track for potential Supreme Court review.
Maryland judge denies Kalshi's injunction request, affirming state regulatory authority
July 31 surges to 37%24%
Judge Abelson denied Kalshi's request for an injunction, emphasizing that Congress did not clearly intend to preempt state gambling laws regarding sports event contracts. This ruling reinforced the view that state laws apply, increasing the likelihood of a Supreme Court case but without immediate certiorari grant.
Maryland Federal Judge Rules Against Kalshi, Denying Injunction in Sports Betting Dispute
July 31 rises to 16%3%
U.S. District Judge Adam B. Abelson rejected Kalshi's request for a preliminary injunction, ruling that federal commodities law does not preempt Maryland's state sports gambling regulations. This decision broke Kalshi's previous winning streak in Nevada and New Jersey, creating a direct district court split that sets up a potential Supreme Court showdown.
Judge Abelson Denies Kalshi's Preliminary Injunction Against Maryland Regulators
July 31 plunges to 17%19%
Judge Abelson officially denied Kalshi's injunction request, reinforcing the view that sports event contracts are subject to state gambling laws. This ruling diminished the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention, causing market prices to drop again.
Supreme Court announces two sports-related cases for 2025-26 term
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court confirmed it would hear two sports-related cases, one of which could involve the legality of sports event contracts under federal regulation, directly impacting the market's Yes outcome.
Federal Judge Rejects Kalshi's Bid to Block Maryland Sports Betting Regulation
July 31 rises to 17%4%
U.S. District Judge Adam B. Abelson denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Maryland's state gambling laws. This decision broke Kalshi's winning streak in Nevada and New Jersey, creating a district-level split.
Maryland Court Rules Against Kalshi in Sports Event Contract Litigation
July 31 plunges to 16%27%
A Maryland federal court denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, marking a significant legal setback and reinforcing the split among district courts. This ruling diminished the likelihood of an imminent Supreme Court certiorari grant, contributing to the market price decline to around 17%.
Maryland court denies Kalshi's injunction request in sports event contracts case
July 31 rises to 17%4%
While Nevada and New Jersey courts granted preliminary injunctions to keep designated contract markets online, the Maryland District Court denied Kalshi's request, creating a split in district court rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws, potentially setting up Supreme Court review.
Maryland federal court rules against Kalshi, rejecting federal preemption of state gambling laws
July 31 rises to 16%3%
On August 1, 2025, the Maryland district court ruled that Kalshi’s sports wagering contracts are not exempt from state regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act, reversing prior trends and signaling a setback for federal preemption arguments. This ruling dampened market expectations for Supreme Court review.
SCOTUS Announces Two Sports-Related Cases for 2025-26 Term
July 31 plunges to 16%20%
The Supreme Court confirmed it would hear two sports-related cases during the 2025-26 term, reinforcing the court's active role in sports law and increasing market anticipation for potential certiorari.
SCOTUS confirms two sports-related cases for 2025-26 term
The Supreme Court confirmed it had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, one of which involved the legality of sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, directly impacting the market's resolution.
Third Circuit Files Brief Supporting Kalshi in KalshiEX v. Flaherty
July 31 plunges to 17%26%
The Third Circuit filed a brief supporting Kalshi in KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty, No. 25-1922, which could influence the outcome of the Fourth Circuit's decision and potentially lead to Supreme Court review.
Third Circuit hears oral arguments in Kalshi’s New Jersey appeal
July 31 surges to 36%23%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit heard oral arguments on Kalshi’s appeal of the New Jersey injunction. The Third Circuit had previously ruled in favor of Kalshi, finding federal preemption of state gambling laws. The appeal and potential conflicting rulings with the Fourth Circuit increase the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Supreme Court rules event contracts fall within Commodity Exchange Act's definition of swaps
July 31 surges to 36%19%
The Supreme Court ruled that event contracts like those on prediction markets fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of 'swaps,' and that federal law preempted Arizona's criminal gambling statutes. This decision has broad implications for the regulation of sports event contracts and prediction markets.
Third Circuit Court hears oral arguments on New Jersey appeal in Kalshi sports contract case
July 31 surges to 43%29%
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals heard oral arguments on the appeal by New Jersey regulators challenging a preliminary injunction that allowed Kalshi to offer sports event contracts under federal CFTC jurisdiction. This event raised market hopes for a favorable ruling that could affirm federal preemption and reduce state regulatory barriers, causing a sharp price increase.
SCOTUS Requests Response from Trump Administration on Sports Contract Case
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court requested a response from the Trump Administration on a sports contract case, indicating potential consideration of certiorari in a case involving federal regulation of sports event contracts.
Third Circuit receives New Jersey appeal on Kalshi sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
On July 31, 2025, the Third Circuit Court of Appeals received New Jersey's appeal challenging a district court ruling that Kalshi's sports event contracts fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive jurisdiction. This appellate review raised the possibility of eventual Supreme Court involvement but did not confirm certiorari, causing market uncertainty and a price drop.
Third Circuit Court receives New Jersey appeal on sports event contracts
July 31 drops to 17%7%
On July 31, 2025, the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement appealed a district court ruling that had granted a preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi's sports event contracts under CFTC jurisdiction. This appellate process indicated ongoing legal uncertainty and the potential for Supreme Court review but no certiorari grant yet.
Third Circuit appeal filed challenging state regulation of Kalshi’s sports event contracts
July 31 jumps to 24%11%
On July 31, 2025, an appeal was filed in the Third Circuit by New Jersey regulators against a district court ruling favoring Kalshi, escalating the dispute over federal preemption and state gambling laws, potentially setting the stage for Supreme Court review.
CFTC grants relief on reporting requirements for event contracts, signaling regulatory progress
July 31 surges to 36%23%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted relief to exchanges listing event contracts, easing reporting burdens. This regulatory development was interpreted as a positive sign for the legitimacy of sports event contracts, briefly boosting market optimism about Supreme Court review.
Kalshi files Third Circuit appeal challenging state gaming law preemption
July 31 jumps to 25%12%
On July 31, 2025, Kalshi filed a brief in the Third Circuit appealing the New Jersey district court ruling that favored CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over sports event contracts. This heightened expectations for potential Supreme Court review but did not guarantee certiorari.
California tribes file federal lawsuit against Kalshi and Robinhood over sports contracts
July 31 surges to 35%22%
Three California tribes sued Kalshi and Robinhood alleging violations of federal gaming laws, adding complexity to the regulatory landscape and increasing uncertainty about federal preemption, which caused a brief market price spike followed by a drop.
Kalshi appeals Maryland ruling to Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals
July 31 surges to 37%24%
Following the Maryland court's denial of Kalshi's injunction, Kalshi filed an appeal to the Fourth Circuit, signaling ongoing litigation and the potential for higher court review. This action briefly increased market optimism for Supreme Court involvement, reflected in a sharp price rise.
Kalshi appeals Maryland court ruling denying preemption of state gaming laws
July 31 surges to 37%25%
After a Maryland federal court ruled against Kalshi’s claim that federal commodities law preempts state gambling regulation, Kalshi appealed to the Fourth Circuit. This legal setback created uncertainty about the likelihood of Supreme Court review, causing a brief market rebound followed by a decline as the case remained unresolved.
Market price drops sharply amid no SCOTUS certiorari on sports contract cases
July 31 plunges to 16%27%
Despite ongoing litigation and regulatory developments, no public confirmation emerged that the Supreme Court granted certiorari on any sports event contract case by the July 31 deadline. This absence of a certiorari grant led to a sharp decline in market probability for a July 31 resolution.
Market speculation surges on possible Supreme Court review of Kalshi sports contracts case
July 31 surges to 37%24%
Following the Maryland ruling and ongoing appeals, speculation grew that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari to resolve the split among federal courts on the regulation of sports event contracts. This caused a sharp but brief increase in the market price.
No Supreme Court certiorari granted on sports event contract cases by deadline
July 31 plunges to 16%27%
By the July 31, 2025 deadline, there was no public confirmation via the Supreme Court docket or credible legal reporting that the Court granted certiorari on any case explicitly concerning sports event contracts. This led to a sharp market decline to 17%.
Speculation Peaks on Potential Supreme Court Review of Sports Event Contract Litigation
July 31 surges to 37%24%
Market prices surged as speculation grew that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari to resolve the split among federal courts on the regulation of sports event contracts, especially following the Maryland ruling and ongoing appeals. However, no official certiorari grant was announced by this date.
Maryland Judge Rejects Kalshi’s Injunction Request Over Sports‑Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 37%24%
The Maryland federal judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction, allowing state regulators to enforce gambling laws against the company’s sports‑event contracts. Traders interpreted the decision as a setback for Kalshi and a signal that the dispute could climb to the Supreme Court, driving the market price up sharply.
SCOTUS Reschedules Sports Case for 2025-26 Term After Unable to Resolve Dispute
July 31 rises to 17%4%
The Supreme Court announced it could not resolve a sports-related case during the 2024-25 term and has rescheduled it for argument during the 2025-26 term. This decision directly impacted the market, as it confirmed the Court would be hearing a sports-related case in the upcoming term.
Maryland Federal Court Denies Kalshi's Injunction, Creating District Court Split on Sports Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 43%31%
The U.S. District Court for the District of Maryland denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, allowing state regulators to enforce gambling laws. This created a direct split with previous rulings in Nevada and New Jersey, significantly increasing the likelihood of eventual Supreme Court review.
Market falls to 12% as no certiorari granted by Supreme Court
July 31 plunges to 12%31%
Despite speculation, the Supreme Court did not publicly grant certiorari on any sports event contract case by July 31, 2025, leading to a sharp drop in market probability to 12%.
Kalshi Gains Momentum with Federal Court Wins on Sports Event Contracts
July 31 surges to 43%29%
By July 30, 2025, Kalshi had secured preliminary injunctions in Nevada and New Jersey federal courts affirming federal preemption over state gaming laws for sports event contracts. This boosted market confidence in a Supreme Court review, causing a sharp price increase.
Industry analysts flag Kalshi‑Maryland loss as a potential Supreme Court showdown
July 31 surges to 43%30%
An industry commentary piece highlighted the “first crack wall” for sports‑event‑contract litigation and suggested that the Kalshi‑Maryland loss could set the stage for Supreme Court review. The speculative tone contributed to a brief surge in the market price on July 30 before the actual court decision the following day reversed the sentiment.
Kalshi files appeal to Fourth Circuit amid district court split, raising Supreme Court review prospects
July 31 surges to 43%29%
Kalshi appealed a Maryland district court decision to the Fourth Circuit on August 5, 2025, amid conflicting district court rulings. This heightened speculation about potential Supreme Court review, causing a sharp but brief price increase in the market.
Market briefly spikes to 43% on speculation of Supreme Court interest
July 31 surges to 43%30%
On July 30, the market surged to 43%, possibly reflecting speculation that the Supreme Court might take up the case due to the split in lower courts and ongoing appeals, increasing chances of certiorari.
Kalshi files for extension to submit Supreme Court certiorari petition
July 31 surges to 43%29%
On July 30, 2025, a party related to the sports event contract litigation requested a 30-day extension to file a petition for writ of certiorari to the Supreme Court, signaling intent to seek review but no grant yet.
Kalshi appeals Maryland court ruling, raising Supreme Court review prospects
July 31 surges to 43%29%
On July 30, 2025, Kalshi appealed a Maryland federal court decision rejecting its bid to block state enforcement of unlicensed sports event contracts. This legal split with other district courts increased the likelihood of Supreme Court review, causing a sharp price increase in the market.
CFTC grants relief for event contracts, clarifying regulatory status
July 31 surges to 43%29%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a no-action letter granting relief to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for listing margined event contracts, clarifying that such contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. This regulatory action influenced market perceptions about federal regulatory clarity but did not indicate Supreme Court certiorari, causing a temporary price spike followed by decline.
Kalshi Appeals to Fourth Circuit Amid District Court Split on Sports Event Contract Regulation
July 31 surges to 43%29%
Kalshi's appeal to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals on August 5, 2025, following conflicting district court rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws, sparked renewed market optimism about Supreme Court review. The legal uncertainty and potential for Supreme Court intervention caused a sharp price increase on July 30, 2025.
SCOTUS Reschedules Sports Case for 2025-26 Term
July 31 drops to 36%14%
The Supreme Court issued a one-page order rescheduling a sports-related case for argument during the 2025-26 term after being unable to resolve it during the 2024-25 term, increasing uncertainty about potential certiorari.
SCOTUSblog warns a third sports‑event‑contract case could reach the Supreme Court
July 31 surges to 43%30%
SCOTUSblog published a story noting that the Supreme Court’s 2025‑26 term had already granted certiorari in two sports‑related cases and that a third case concerning the regulation of “sports event contracts” was expected to be added to the docket. Traders interpreted the report as a strong signal that the Court might soon grant a petition in the Kalshi‑Maryland dispute, pushing the market’s “Yes” price sharply upward on July 30.
Supreme Court reschedules case for 2025-26 term after inability to resolve dispute
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A case previously scheduled for the 2024-25 term was rescheduled for the 2025-26 term, indicating the Court may take up sports contract issues through certiorari.
No new sports contract certiorari cases reported as college athlete lawsuits face hurdles
Reports indicated ongoing legal uncertainty and delays in sports-related lawsuits, but no Supreme Court certiorari grants on sports event contracts were announced, maintaining low market confidence.
College athlete eligibility lawsuits face new hurdles amid rising sports law cases
Reports on increasing sports-related legal cases, including eligibility and contract disputes, underscored the broader legal environment affecting sports contracts but did not indicate Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contracts specifically.
SCOTUS postpones sports case to 2025-26 term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court rescheduled a sports case for argument during the 2025-26 term after being unable to resolve it during the 2024-25 term, signaling potential for a Supreme Court showdown on sports event contracts.
SCOTUSblog reports on most important cases of the next term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
SCOTUSblog published a list of the most important cases for the 2025-26 term, including a sports-related case that had been rescheduled for the fall. This article provided updated information about the Court's docket and signaled renewed interest in sports-related jurisprudence.
Maryland federal court rules against Kalshi’s preemption claim, allowing state regulation
A Maryland federal court denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction, ruling that Maryland’s gaming laws are not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act, creating a split with earlier favorable rulings in Nevada and New Jersey. This decision reduced the likelihood of Supreme Court review in the near term.
SCOTUS to hear sports-related case after 2024-25 term rescheduling
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court rescheduled a sports-related case for the 2025-26 term after failing to resolve it in the prior term, indicating potential certiorari on issues involving CFTC regulation of sports event contracts.
Supreme Court to hear sports case on sports event contracts and Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear a case involving whether sports event contracts constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act, directly addressing one of the three qualifying case types for this market.
Federal courts split on preemption of state gaming laws by Commodity Exchange Act
Federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts, granting preliminary injunctions to Kalshi. However, a Maryland federal court ruled the opposite, rejecting Kalshi's preemption claim, creating a circuit split and increasing uncertainty about Supreme Court review.
SCOTUSblog reports Supreme Court to hear sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear two sports-related cases, marking a significant development for sports law and potentially triggering a Supreme Court showdown on sports event contracts.
SCOTUS to hear sports case after 2024-25 term rescheduling
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court announced it would hear a sports case in the 2025-26 term after failing to resolve it during the previous term, signaling potential certiorari in a case involving sports contracts and regulatory authority.
SCOTUSblog Lists Most Important Cases of the Next Term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
SCOTUSblog published a list of the most important cases for the 2025-26 term, including cases involving sports contracts and federal regulation, which may have influenced market expectations about potential certiorari.
Supreme Court to hear two sports-related cases in 2025-26 term
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
SCOTUSblog reported that the Supreme Court had agreed to hear two sports-related cases, signaling increased judicial involvement in sports contract issues.
Federal judge temporarily blocks Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against prediction market Kalshi
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A federal judge barred Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi under state gambling laws, citing the Commodity Exchange Act and the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction over swaps, which include event contracts. This ruling increased market confidence that federal regulation preempts state laws, impacting the July 31 outcome probability.
Trump Signs Executive Order Targeting College Sports
President Trump signed the 'Saving College Sports' Executive Order, which includes provisions banning pay-for-play NIL deals and mandating scholarship increases for women's and non-revenue sports, potentially triggering Supreme Court review of NCAA and antitrust issues.
Kalshi Files Third Circuit Brief Emphasizing Federal Preemption Over State Gambling Laws
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Kalshi filed its opening brief in the Third Circuit Court of Appeals, arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts New Jersey's state gambling laws regarding sports event contracts. This legal step highlighted the ongoing battle over regulatory jurisdiction, keeping the market focused on potential appellate and Supreme Court resolution.
Trump signs 'Saving College Sports' Executive Order
President Trump signed an Executive Order on July 24, 2025, titled 'Saving College Sports,' which sets policy objectives for college athletics, including scholarship frameworks and roster spot requirements for non-revenue-generating sports starting in 2025-2026.
President Trump signs executive order 'Saving College Sports' amid sports legal battles
On July 24, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at reshaping college sports, reflecting growing concerns over litigation and regulation in sports. This highlighted the ongoing legal and regulatory complexities around sports contracts but did not involve Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contracts, maintaining market uncertainty.
President Trump issues executive order targeting pay-for-play NIL deals in college sports
President Trump issued an executive order aiming to ban pay-for-play NIL deals and mandate scholarships for women's and Olympic sports, stirring debate but not directly affecting Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contracts. The market remained low following this announcement.
CFTC grants relief for event contracts but no SCOTUS certiorari on sports contracts
July 31 surges to 43%29%
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission granted relief related to reporting requirements for event contracts, indicating ongoing regulatory activity but no Supreme Court certiorari grant on sports event contracts. This maintained uncertainty and downward pressure on the market.
Kalshi files brief emphasizing federal preemption in sports contract litigation
July 31 rises to 14%1%
Kalshi submitted a detailed brief to the Third Circuit Court of Appeals arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws as applied to sports event contracts on designated contract markets. This legal argument is central to ongoing litigation and influences market expectations about federal versus state regulatory authority, impacting the likelihood of Supreme Court review.
SCOTUS Orders Temporary Stay Pending Certiorari Petition in Consumer Product Safety Case
The Supreme Court issued an order in a consumer product safety case, noting that certiorari would be sought if a petition was timely filed. This demonstrated the Court's willingness to take up cases involving regulatory and consumer protection issues, potentially signaling openness to similar sports contract cases.
Kalshi's sports event contracts spark ongoing regulatory dispute
Kalshi's offering of sports event contracts without state betting licenses intensified regulatory disputes, with opponents arguing CFTC authority over such contracts threatens state gambling laws. This controversy contributed to market uncertainty and price stagnation at low levels.
First Circuit Affirms Baseball Antitrust Exemption in Puerto Rico League Case
The First Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's decision affirming baseball's 1922 antitrust exemption extends to Puerto Rico's top professional baseball league, potentially setting up a Supreme Court review.
Legal Developments Highlight Split in Federal Courts Over Sports Event Contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Several federal district courts issued conflicting rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts, with courts in Nevada and New Jersey favoring federal preemption and Maryland ruling against it. This split raised the prospect of eventual Supreme Court review but did not indicate an imminent certiorari grant, leading to market uncertainty and a price drop from 50% to 13%.
California tribes file federal lawsuit against Kalshi and Robinhood over sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 17%33%
Three California tribes sued Kalshi and Robinhood alleging their sports event contracts violate the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and seeking injunctions to stop illegal sports gambling on tribal lands. This heightened legal pressure on sports event contracts but did not involve Supreme Court action, contributing to market skepticism.
Misinterpretation of Supreme Court's Alston Decision Affects Sports Law Understanding
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
On July 17, 2025, legal commentary highlighted widespread misunderstanding of the Supreme Court's NCAA v. Alston ruling, which clarified permissible NCAA restrictions. This context influenced perceptions of sports law but did not directly affect the certiorari market.
Lower court rulings split on federal preemption of state gambling laws for sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Federal district courts in Nevada and New Jersey ruled in favor of Kalshi, supporting federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act, while a Maryland court ruled against Kalshi, rejecting preemption and upholding state regulation. This split created legal uncertainty and reduced market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari.
Market plunges to 13% after Maryland court denies Kalshi injunction
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Maryland federal court rejected Kalshi’s bid to block state enforcement against unlicensed sports event contracts, diverging from Nevada and New Jersey rulings and reducing the perceived likelihood of Supreme Court review by July 31.
Market price plunges to 13% amid no certiorari announcement on sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Following no public confirmation or credible reports of SCOTUS granting certiorari on a sports event contract case, the market sharply dropped from 50% to 13%, reflecting diminished expectations for such a grant by July 31.
Maryland federal judge denies Kalshi's injunction, supports state regulation
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Judge Abelson ruled against Kalshi, emphasizing that sports event contracts resemble sports betting and should be subject to state laws. This decision dampened certiorari expectations, causing a sharp price drop from 50% to 13%.
Nevada District Court Judge Misinterprets Alston Decision in NIL Case
A Nevada federal judge incorrectly cited the Supreme Court's NCAA v. Alston (2021) decision, claiming it authorized NCAA antitrust violations, which could have broader implications for sports law interpretation and Supreme Court review of related issues.
Maryland federal court denies Kalshi's preliminary injunction, allowing state enforcement
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The District Court for the District of Maryland denied Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction, permitting Maryland gaming regulators to pursue enforcement actions against Kalshi for offering sports event contracts without a state license. This ruling conflicted with prior favorable rulings in Nevada and New Jersey, creating a circuit split and uncertainty about Supreme Court intervention.
Nevada District Court Misstates Alston Case, Threatening College Sports Legal Landscape
A Nevada federal district court judge misinterpreted the Supreme Court's Alston decision, claiming it held NCAA violated antitrust law by restricting athlete compensation, creating confusion in college sports governance and legal decisions.
Federal judge in Nevada misinterprets Supreme Court's Alston decision on sports law
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A Nevada federal district court judge misapplied the Supreme Court's 2021 Alston ruling, affecting perceptions of sports law and potentially influencing legal strategies around sports contracts. This contributed to early market uncertainty.
Federal District Court Judge Misstates Supreme Court's Alston Decision in Sports Compensation Case
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A Nevada federal district court judge incorrectly interpreted the Supreme Court's Alston ruling regarding NCAA antitrust law, causing confusion about the legal landscape for sports contracts and athlete compensation. This misinterpretation likely contributed to market uncertainty and a sharp drop in the probability of Supreme Court certiorari on sports event contracts.
Nevada Court Misstates Alston Holding in Pay-for-Play Case
A Nevada federal district court judge incorrectly held that in Alston, the Supreme Court ruled the NCAA violated federal antitrust law by restricting student-athlete compensation, creating a legal misstatement that contributed to market confusion.
House passes Digital Asset Market Clarity Act clarifying CFTC and SEC roles
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
On July 17, 2025, the House passed the CLARITY Act, which clarified regulatory jurisdiction between the CFTC and SEC over digital assets, indirectly impacting the regulatory landscape for sports event contracts. This legislative development contributed to market uncertainty about federal regulatory preemption and the likelihood of Supreme Court intervention.
Market price plunges as no certiorari granted immediately after speculation
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Following the initial speculation, no official Supreme Court docket or order confirmed certiorari on sports event contract cases, causing the market price to drop sharply from 50% to 13%. This reflected growing skepticism about the Court's immediate interest.
Nevada judge misinterprets Supreme Court Alston decision in college sports case
A Nevada federal district court judge incorrectly stated that the Supreme Court ruled in NCAA v. Alston (2021) that the NCAA violated federal antitrust law by restricting student-athlete compensation, misrepresenting the actual holding of the case. This misstatement could have created uncertainty about the legal status of NIL and athlete compensation, affecting market sentiment.
Nevada judge misstates Alston holding in college sports case
A Nevada federal judge incorrectly stated that Alston held the NCAA violated federal antitrust law by restricting athlete compensation, highlighting ongoing misinterpretations of key sports law precedents.
Maryland Judge Denies Kalshi Preliminary Injunction
July 31 plunges to 10%40%
A federal judge ruled that sports event contracts are sports betting and should be subject to state regulation, rejecting Kalshi's claim of federal preemption. This decision could lead to Supreme Court review of the federal vs. state regulatory conflict.
Nevada judge misinterprets Alston decision in NCAA NIL case
A Nevada federal judge incorrectly cited the Supreme Court's NCAA v. Alston (2021) decision, claiming it held the NCAA violated antitrust law by restricting athlete compensation, creating confusion about Supreme Court jurisprudence in sports law.
Nevada judge misinterprets Alston decision in NCAA NIL case
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A Nevada federal judge incorrectly cited the Supreme Court's NCAA v. Alston (2021) decision, claiming it held the NCAA violated antitrust law by restricting athlete compensation, which could have broader implications for sports law interpretation and potential Supreme Court review of related issues.
Maryland Judge Rejects Kalshi's Federal Preemption Argument
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
U.S. District Judge Andrew P. Abelson ruled that Maryland can regulate Kalshi's sports event contracts, contradicting prior Nevada and New Jersey rulings and creating a split that could lead to Supreme Court review.
District courts remain split on Commodity Exchange Act preemption in sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
US district courts in New Jersey, Nevada, and Maryland issued conflicting rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts, creating legal uncertainty and reducing market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari by July 31.
CFTC begins staff firings amid regulatory turmoil
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission started staff firings on July 16, 2025, reflecting internal agency disruptions that may have impacted regulatory clarity around event contracts, contributing to market uncertainty.
Kalshi's federal court win in Nevada raises hopes for Supreme Court review
Prior to the Maryland ruling, Kalshi had secured favorable decisions in Nevada and New Jersey, supporting federal preemption over state gambling laws for sports event contracts. This bolstered market optimism for Supreme Court certiorari, reflected in the initial 50% price.
Judge temporarily bars Arizona from regulating prediction market operators and pauses Kalshi prosecution
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi's ruling found the CFTC had sufficiently shown that event contracts fall within the Commodity Exchange Act's definition of swaps, and that federal law likely preempts Arizona's gambling regulations. This decision directly addresses the legality and federal regulation of sports event contracts.
Market starts at 50% amid ongoing Kalshi litigation and split court rulings
At the start of the analysis window, the market reflected uncertainty with a 50% chance that SCOTUS would grant certiorari on sports event contracts, amid ongoing federal court disputes over federal preemption of state gambling laws.
Federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey grant preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi against state gaming regulators
In April 2025, federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey ruled that Kalshi’s sports event contracts fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act, enjoining state regulators from enforcing state gambling laws against Kalshi. These rulings supported Kalshi’s argument for federal preemption and boosted market confidence in a Supreme Court review.
Market opens at 50% amid anticipation of Supreme Court sports contract case
The market started at 50% probability reflecting general anticipation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a sports event contract case, amid ongoing legal disputes involving Kalshi and state regulators.
Third Circuit affirms federal jurisdiction over Kalshi sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled that Kalshi's sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, preempting New Jersey's gambling laws. This federal preemption ruling was a major legal victory for Kalshi and suggested the Supreme Court might eventually hear the issue due to conflicting rulings in other circuits.
Kalshi announces surpassing $2 billion in sports trading volume
Kalshi's announcement of significant sports trading volume highlighted the growing importance of sports event contracts, increasing market attention on potential legal challenges and Supreme Court involvement.
CFTC Begins Staff Firings After Supreme Court Clearance
July 31 plunges to 10%40%
Reuters reported that the CFTC began a wave of staff firings after a recent Supreme Court decision that cleared the path for mass government terminations. The news raised doubts about regulatory stability for CFTC‑designated markets, nudging the market down to its lowest point of 10% the next day.
Kalshi's Maryland loss signals potential Supreme Court review
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Judge Abelson's ruling against Kalshi in Maryland rejected the company's argument that federal law preempts state regulation of sports event contracts, setting the stage for possible Supreme Court review of the federal-state regulatory conflict. This decision introduced uncertainty about the case's trajectory, causing initial market price volatility.
Maryland federal court denies Kalshi's motion for preliminary injunction
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The District of Maryland rejected Kalshi's argument that federal law preempts state gambling laws regarding sports event contracts, creating a split with favorable rulings in Nevada and New Jersey. This increased uncertainty about Supreme Court intervention, causing the market price to drop sharply.
Mixed Federal Court Rulings Create Uncertainty Over Sports Event Contract Regulation
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Federal courts issued conflicting decisions on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, with Kalshi winning preliminary injunctions in Nevada and New Jersey but losing in Maryland. This legal uncertainty caused market confidence in Supreme Court certiorari to decline sharply.
NCAA Persuades Appeals Court to Reject Order on Player Eligibility Distinctions
A U.S. appeals court ruled in favor of the NCAA, rejecting an order that could blur the line between student and professional athletes. This sports-related legal decision may have influenced market sentiment about potential Supreme Court involvement in collegiate sports cases.
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission begins staff firings after Supreme Court ruling
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
On July 16, 2025, the CFTC began staff firings following a Supreme Court decision that cleared the way for mass government firings. While not directly about sports event contracts, this event indicated regulatory uncertainty and turmoil at the CFTC, which oversees derivatives including sports event contracts, contributing to market skepticism.
US District Courts split on regulation of sports event contracts under Commodity Exchange Act
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey issued preliminary injunctions favoring Kalshi, a derivatives exchange offering sports event contracts, ruling that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has exclusive jurisdiction over these contracts, preempting state gaming laws. This legal split raised the possibility of Supreme Court review, initially boosting market expectations for certiorari.
Federal courts remain split on CEA preemption of state gaming laws in sports contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Multiple federal district courts ruled differently on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws for sports event contracts, creating legal uncertainty and influencing market sentiment downward. This split suggested potential for Supreme Court review but no certiorari yet.
Third Circuit affirms preliminary injunction favoring Kalshi, citing federal preemption over state gambling laws
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Third Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi's sports event contracts from New Jersey state gambling enforcement, affirming that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state laws in this context. This ruling initially supported the likelihood of federal jurisdiction and increased market optimism for Supreme Court review.
CFTC begins staff firings following Supreme Court ruling
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
On July 16, 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission started staff layoffs after a Supreme Court ruling cleared the way for mass government firings. This event signaled regulatory uncertainty and potential shifts in enforcement related to derivatives and event contracts, contributing to market skepticism about imminent Supreme Court action on sports event contract cases.
Kalshi suffers loss in Maryland court, raising prospects for Supreme Court review
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A Maryland federal court rejected Kalshi's bid to block state enforcement over unlicensed sports event contracts, creating a split with favorable rulings in Nevada and New Jersey. This split increased speculation that the Supreme Court might need to resolve the conflicting interpretations of federal and state regulatory authority over sports event contracts.
Federal courts split on whether Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Multiple federal district courts issued conflicting rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) preempts state gambling laws as applied to sports event contracts, notably involving KalshiEX LLC. This legal uncertainty caused a sharp drop in market confidence that the Supreme Court would grant certiorari by July 31, 2025.
Speculation rises on potential Supreme Court sports contract case certiorari
Market opened at 50% on July 16 amid speculation that the Supreme Court might grant certiorari on a sports event contract case involving regulatory and jurisdictional questions. This speculation was driven by ongoing lower court disputes and anticipation of the Court's upcoming term.
Kalshi Loss in Maryland Could Pave the Way for Supreme Court Review
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
A Maryland federal court rejected Kalshi’s bid to block state enforcement over unlicensed sports event contracts, creating a split with Nevada and New Jersey rulings and setting the stage for potential Supreme Court certiorari.
Maryland Judge Denies Kalshi's Injunction Request in Sports Contract Case
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
U.S. District Judge Adam Abelson ruled against Kalshi, denying their request for a preliminary injunction to block Maryland's enforcement of sports betting laws against their sports event contracts. This decision challenged Kalshi's argument that federal law preempts state gambling regulations, significantly lowering market confidence in Supreme Court review.
Federal courts split on Kalshi sports event contracts' regulatory authority
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Federal district courts issued conflicting rulings on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gaming laws for sports event contracts offered by Kalshi, creating legal uncertainty and reducing market confidence in a Supreme Court certiorari grant by July 31, 2025. This split suggested a potential Supreme Court review but also increased doubt about the timing.
CFTC starts staff firings after Supreme Court clears way for mass government layoffs
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
Reuters reported that the CFTC began firing staff after the Supreme Court cleared the way for mass government firings the prior week. The article linked the Court’s unnamed decision to a broader weakening of the regulator that oversees sports‑event contracts, prompting traders to slash the probability that the Court would grant a cert petition on that issue.
Supreme Court clears way for mass federal layoffs, signaling conservative judicial approach
July 31 plunges to 13%37%
The Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to proceed with mass federal layoffs, reflecting a conservative majority willing to uphold executive power. While unrelated directly to sports contracts, this ruling influenced perceptions of the Court's docket and priorities during the analysis window, indirectly affecting market sentiment on other cases.
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