Moonshot AI's April 20 release of Kimi K2.6—a 1-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model with 32 billion active parameters, native multimodality, and breakthroughs in long-horizon coding plus 300-sub-agent orchestration—has sharpened trader focus on the firm's rapid iteration cycle, delaying consensus around an imminent Kimi K3 launch. Credible reports peg K3, a rumored 2.5–4 trillion parameter frontier model, for Q3 2026 amid China's escalating AI parameter race against DeepSeek V4 and Baidu's Wenxin 5.0. No official K3 benchmarks or previews have surfaced in the past 30 days, with historical Moonshot patterns showing 2–3 month gaps between previews and shipping; watch developer forums and NVIDIA GTC follow-ups for catalysts that could shift timelines amid domestic compute regulations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$35,185 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
April 30
1%
June 30
49%
May 31
27%
$35,185 Vol.
April 30
$30,572 Vol.
1%
June 30
$2,661 Vol.
49%
May 31
$1,989 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's April 20 release of Kimi K2.6—a 1-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model with 32 billion active parameters, native multimodality, and breakthroughs in long-horizon coding plus 300-sub-agent orchestration—has sharpened trader focus on the firm's rapid iteration cycle, delaying consensus around an imminent Kimi K3 launch. Credible reports peg K3, a rumored 2.5–4 trillion parameter frontier model, for Q3 2026 amid China's escalating AI parameter race against DeepSeek V4 and Baidu's Wenxin 5.0. No official K3 benchmarks or previews have surfaced in the past 30 days, with historical Moonshot patterns showing 2–3 month gaps between previews and shipping; watch developer forums and NVIDIA GTC follow-ups for catalysts that could shift timelines amid domestic compute regulations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Volume
$35,185End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's April 20 release of Kimi K2.6—a 1-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model with 32 billion active parameters, native multimodality, and breakthroughs in long-horizon coding plus 300-sub-agent orchestration—has sharpened trader focus on the firm's rapid iteration cycle, delaying consensus around an imminent Kimi K3 launch. Credible reports peg K3, a rumored 2.5–4 trillion parameter frontier model, for Q3 2026 amid China's escalating AI parameter race against DeepSeek V4 and Baidu's Wenxin 5.0. No official K3 benchmarks or previews have surfaced in the past 30 days, with historical Moonshot patterns showing 2–3 month gaps between previews and shipping; watch developer forums and NVIDIA GTC follow-ups for catalysts that could shift timelines amid domestic compute regulations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$35,185End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's April 20 release of Kimi K2.6—a 1-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts large language model with 32 billion active parameters, native multimodality, and breakthroughs in long-horizon coding plus 300-sub-agent orchestration—has sharpened trader focus on the firm's rapid iteration cycle, delaying consensus around an imminent Kimi K3 launch. Credible reports peg K3, a rumored 2.5–4 trillion parameter frontier model, for Q3 2026 amid China's escalating AI parameter race against DeepSeek V4 and Baidu's Wenxin 5.0. No official K3 benchmarks or previews have surfaced in the past 30 days, with historical Moonshot patterns showing 2–3 month gaps between previews and shipping; watch developer forums and NVIDIA GTC follow-ups for catalysts that could shift timelines amid domestic compute regulations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions