**Tucker Carlson faces no active federal charges or confirmed DOJ investigation as of mid-June 2026.** Trader consensus at 98.4% for "No" reflects the absence of any prosecutorial action following his March 2026 public claims that the CIA was preparing a criminal referral under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) over his contacts with Iranians before U.S.-Israel strikes. Trump administration officials promptly dismissed those allegations as unfounded, with no supporting evidence or referrals reported since. The episode stemmed from Carlson’s criticism of U.S. policy toward Iran and generated citizen complaints to the DOJ and FBI, but produced no formal probe or indictment. Historical precedent shows FARA enforcement against journalists is rare and typically requires clear evidence of undisclosed agency or compensation, neither of which has surfaced. Ongoing factors supporting high confidence include the current administration’s alignment with Carlson’s broader audience, lack of new developments in the past three months, and the procedural hurdles to charging a high-profile media figure without strong documentation. Scenarios that could still shift the market include discovery of new communications evidence, a change in DOJ leadership, or escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions prompting renewed scrutiny—though none appear imminent based on verified reporting.