Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Shanghai's highest temperature on May 1 clustering around 24-26°C, fueling the tight trader consensus with 38% implied probability for 25°C and 34% for 24°C amid inherent short-term uncertainty in boundary layer conditions. Current observations show late-April highs in the low 20s°C, with a warming trend driven by subtropical high pressure ridge and southerly winds enhancing advection of moist, mild air over the East China Sea. Early May climatology supports averages near 23°C at Xujiahui station, but model spread reflects potential for increased cloudiness or sea breeze moderation differentiating outcomes. China Meteorological Administration updates expected through resolution based on official maximum readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 1?
25°C 38.1%
24°C 34%
23°C 14%
26°C 14.0%
NEW
$59,582 Vol.
NEW
$59,582 Vol.
May 1, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
14%
24°C
34%
25°C
38%
26°C
14%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 38.1%
24°C 34%
23°C 14%
26°C 14.0%
NEW
$59,582 Vol.
NEW
$59,582 Vol.
May 1, 2026
19°C or below
$5,367 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,933 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$4,530 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$14,476 Vol.
2%
23°C
$7,000 Vol.
14%
24°C
$4,421 Vol.
34%
25°C
$3,037 Vol.
38%
26°C
$3,730 Vol.
14%
27°C
$7,523 Vol.
2%
28°C
$3,366 Vol.
1%
29°C or higher
$4,164 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Shanghai's highest temperature on May 1 clustering around 24-26°C, fueling the tight trader consensus with 38% implied probability for 25°C and 34% for 24°C amid inherent short-term uncertainty in boundary layer conditions. Current observations show late-April highs in the low 20s°C, with a warming trend driven by subtropical high pressure ridge and southerly winds enhancing advection of moist, mild air over the East China Sea. Early May climatology supports averages near 23°C at Xujiahui station, but model spread reflects potential for increased cloudiness or sea breeze moderation differentiating outcomes. China Meteorological Administration updates expected through resolution based on official maximum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$59,582End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Shanghai's highest temperature on May 1 clustering around 24-26°C, fueling the tight trader consensus with 38% implied probability for 25°C and 34% for 24°C amid inherent short-term uncertainty in boundary layer conditions. Current observations show late-April highs in the low 20s°C, with a warming trend driven by subtropical high pressure ridge and southerly winds enhancing advection of moist, mild air over the East China Sea. Early May climatology supports averages near 23°C at Xujiahui station, but model spread reflects potential for increased cloudiness or sea breeze moderation differentiating outcomes. China Meteorological Administration updates expected through resolution based on official maximum readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$59,582End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from leading models like ECMWF and GFS indicate Shanghai's highest temperature on May 1 clustering around 24-26°C, fueling the tight trader consensus with 38% implied probability for 25°C and 34% for 24°C amid inherent short-term uncertainty in boundary layer conditions. Current observations show late-April highs in the low 20s°C, with a warming trend driven by subtropical high pressure ridge and southerly winds enhancing advection of moist, mild air over the East China Sea. Early May climatology supports averages near 23°C at Xujiahui station, but model spread reflects potential for increased cloudiness or sea breeze moderation differentiating outcomes. China Meteorological Administration updates expected through resolution based on official maximum readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions