**Forecast models and seasonal patterns in Shanghai's early summer Meiyu (plum rain) period point to a daily maximum near 26–27°C on June 16, 2026, which explains the tight market-implied odds favoring those two outcomes.** Official guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS runs shows persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and possible thundery showers or overcast skies moderating daytime heating. This keeps highs well below late-June peaks while preventing sharp drops below the mid-20s. Historical climatology places mid-June averages around 27°C, but recent model consensus and surface observations have trended slightly cooler, clustering the most likely range at 25–28°C. The narrow spread between 26°C (34.5%) and 27°C (31.5%) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in exact peak timing and any brief clearing, rather than a strong directional bias. Lower-probability outcomes like 25°C (17%) or 28°C (6.2%) remain live if model runs shift with new data or if localized convection alters the thermal profile. Traders are weighting the latest numerical weather prediction updates and official Shanghai Meteorological Bureau briefings ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on June 16?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 16?
26°C 36%
27°C 32%
25°C 18%
24°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
9%
25°C
18%
26°C
36%
27°C
32%
28°C
6%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 36%
27°C 32%
25°C 18%
24°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jun 16, 2026
20°C or below
$254 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$250 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$320 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$731 Vol.
2%
24°C
$389 Vol.
9%
25°C
$521 Vol.
18%
26°C
$425 Vol.
36%
27°C
$538 Vol.
32%
28°C
$1,652 Vol.
6%
29°C
$875 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$677 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and seasonal patterns in Shanghai's early summer Meiyu (plum rain) period point to a daily maximum near 26–27°C on June 16, 2026, which explains the tight market-implied odds favoring those two outcomes.**
Official guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS runs shows persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and possible thundery showers or overcast skies moderating daytime heating. This keeps highs well below late-June peaks while preventing sharp drops below the mid-20s. Historical climatology places mid-June averages around 27°C, but recent model consensus and surface observations have trended slightly cooler, clustering the most likely range at 25–28°C.
The narrow spread between 26°C (34.5%) and 27°C (31.5%) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in exact peak timing and any brief clearing, rather than a strong directional bias. Lower-probability outcomes like 25°C (17%) or 28°C (6.2%) remain live if model runs shift with new data or if localized convection alters the thermal profile. Traders are weighting the latest numerical weather prediction updates and official Shanghai Meteorological Bureau briefings ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$6,580End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and seasonal patterns in Shanghai's early summer Meiyu (plum rain) period point to a daily maximum near 26–27°C on June 16, 2026, which explains the tight market-implied odds favoring those two outcomes.**
Official guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS runs shows persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and possible thundery showers or overcast skies moderating daytime heating. This keeps highs well below late-June peaks while preventing sharp drops below the mid-20s. Historical climatology places mid-June averages around 27°C, but recent model consensus and surface observations have trended slightly cooler, clustering the most likely range at 25–28°C.
The narrow spread between 26°C (34.5%) and 27°C (31.5%) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in exact peak timing and any brief clearing, rather than a strong directional bias. Lower-probability outcomes like 25°C (17%) or 28°C (6.2%) remain live if model runs shift with new data or if localized convection alters the thermal profile. Traders are weighting the latest numerical weather prediction updates and official Shanghai Meteorological Bureau briefings ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,580End Date
Jun 16, 2026Market Opened
Jun 14, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and seasonal patterns in Shanghai's early summer Meiyu (plum rain) period point to a daily maximum near 26–27°C on June 16, 2026, which explains the tight market-implied odds favoring those two outcomes.** Official guidance from sources including the China Meteorological Administration, ECMWF, and GFS runs shows persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and possible thundery showers or overcast skies moderating daytime heating. This keeps highs well below late-June peaks while preventing sharp drops below the mid-20s. Historical climatology places mid-June averages around 27°C, but recent model consensus and surface observations have trended slightly cooler, clustering the most likely range at 25–28°C. The narrow spread between 26°C (34.5%) and 27°C (31.5%) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in exact peak timing and any brief clearing, rather than a strong directional bias. Lower-probability outcomes like 25°C (17%) or 28°C (6.2%) remain live if model runs shift with new data or if localized convection alters the thermal profile. Traders are weighting the latest numerical weather prediction updates and official Shanghai Meteorological Bureau briefings ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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