Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service (NWS) guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting New York City's high temperature on May 3 in the 58-63°F range, with outcomes tightly clustered due to a persistent upper-level trough ushering cool Canadian air following late April's cold fronts that plunged highs into the 50s after mid-month heat spikes above 90°F. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover and timing of any lingering showers, which could cap peaks at 58-59°F, versus clearer skies allowing 62-63°F; sea breezes may moderate coastal readings at Central Park. Climatological May 3 normals hover near 65°F, but El Niño emergence favors below-average conditions. Watch NWS updates and new 12Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 3?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 3?
60-61°F 32%
58-59°F 31%
62-63°F 12%
56-57°F 12%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
53°F or below
2%
54-55°F
3%
56-57°F
12%
58-59°F
31%
60-61°F
32%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
4%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72°F or higher
1%
60-61°F 32%
58-59°F 31%
62-63°F 12%
56-57°F 12%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
53°F or below
$675 Vol.
2%
54-55°F
$231 Vol.
3%
56-57°F
$85 Vol.
12%
58-59°F
$99 Vol.
31%
60-61°F
$149 Vol.
32%
62-63°F
$170 Vol.
12%
64-65°F
$223 Vol.
4%
66-67°F
$239 Vol.
2%
68-69°F
$121 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$115 Vol.
1%
72°F or higher
$230 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service (NWS) guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting New York City's high temperature on May 3 in the 58-63°F range, with outcomes tightly clustered due to a persistent upper-level trough ushering cool Canadian air following late April's cold fronts that plunged highs into the 50s after mid-month heat spikes above 90°F. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover and timing of any lingering showers, which could cap peaks at 58-59°F, versus clearer skies allowing 62-63°F; sea breezes may moderate coastal readings at Central Park. Climatological May 3 normals hover near 65°F, but El Niño emergence favors below-average conditions. Watch NWS updates and new 12Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$2,338End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service (NWS) guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting New York City's high temperature on May 3 in the 58-63°F range, with outcomes tightly clustered due to a persistent upper-level trough ushering cool Canadian air following late April's cold fronts that plunged highs into the 50s after mid-month heat spikes above 90°F. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover and timing of any lingering showers, which could cap peaks at 58-59°F, versus clearer skies allowing 62-63°F; sea breezes may moderate coastal readings at Central Park. Climatological May 3 normals hover near 65°F, but El Niño emergence favors below-average conditions. Watch NWS updates and new 12Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,338End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service (NWS) guidance and major forecast models like GFS and ECMWF projecting New York City's high temperature on May 3 in the 58-63°F range, with outcomes tightly clustered due to a persistent upper-level trough ushering cool Canadian air following late April's cold fronts that plunged highs into the 50s after mid-month heat spikes above 90°F. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover and timing of any lingering showers, which could cap peaks at 58-59°F, versus clearer skies allowing 62-63°F; sea breezes may moderate coastal readings at Central Park. Climatological May 3 normals hover near 65°F, but El Niño emergence favors below-average conditions. Watch NWS updates and new 12Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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