Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on April 30, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun International Airport station (ZGGG), where real-time hourly readings peaked at 77°F (precisely 25°C) between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds inhibiting further warming. This outcome fell short of early forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS projecting 26–27°C due to unanticipated increased cloud cover from a weak frontal boundary. With sunset passed and evening temperatures dropping to 24°C, final daily summaries from CMA are expected within 24 hours, though a challenge would require a rare upward revision from secondary stations or data correction—scenarios deemed negligible given consistent multi-hour peak observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 30?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 30?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$29,721 Vol.
$29,721 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$29,721 Vol.
$29,721 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
19°C or below
$266 Vol.
No
20°C
$335 Vol.
No
21°C
$514 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,258 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,784 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,853 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,834 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$4,603 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,756 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,863 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$3,656 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on April 30, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun International Airport station (ZGGG), where real-time hourly readings peaked at 77°F (precisely 25°C) between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds inhibiting further warming. This outcome fell short of early forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS projecting 26–27°C due to unanticipated increased cloud cover from a weak frontal boundary. With sunset passed and evening temperatures dropping to 24°C, final daily summaries from CMA are expected within 24 hours, though a challenge would require a rare upward revision from secondary stations or data correction—scenarios deemed negligible given consistent multi-hour peak observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$29,721End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on April 30, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun International Airport station (ZGGG), where real-time hourly readings peaked at 77°F (precisely 25°C) between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds inhibiting further warming. This outcome fell short of early forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS projecting 26–27°C due to unanticipated increased cloud cover from a weak frontal boundary. With sunset passed and evening temperatures dropping to 24°C, final daily summaries from CMA are expected within 24 hours, though a challenge would require a rare upward revision from secondary stations or data correction—scenarios deemed negligible given consistent multi-hour peak observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,721End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for Guangzhou's highest temperature reaching exactly 25°C on April 30, driven by official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration's Baiyun International Airport station (ZGGG), where real-time hourly readings peaked at 77°F (precisely 25°C) between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM under partly cloudy conditions with light northerly winds inhibiting further warming. This outcome fell short of early forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS projecting 26–27°C due to unanticipated increased cloud cover from a weak frontal boundary. With sunset passed and evening temperatures dropping to 24°C, final daily summaries from CMA are expected within 24 hours, though a challenge would require a rare upward revision from secondary stations or data correction—scenarios deemed negligible given consistent multi-hour peak observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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