Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.6% annually in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February, with April flash data showing headline at 3.0% and core at 2.2%, driven by persistent energy price surges from the Iran conflict despite a fragile ceasefire. The ECB's Governing Council held key deposit rates steady at its March 19 meeting but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, aligning with IMF projections for a 50 basis point hike to maintain neutral monetary policy amid elevated consumer inflation expectations at 4.0% one-year ahead. Markets now price two hikes starting June, reflecting trader consensus on the ECB's hawkish pivot to combat upside inflation risks before year-end, though a sharp growth slowdown could delay action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$102,746 Vol.
$102,746 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$102,746 Vol.
$102,746 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.6% annually in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February, with April flash data showing headline at 3.0% and core at 2.2%, driven by persistent energy price surges from the Iran conflict despite a fragile ceasefire. The ECB's Governing Council held key deposit rates steady at its March 19 meeting but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, aligning with IMF projections for a 50 basis point hike to maintain neutral monetary policy amid elevated consumer inflation expectations at 4.0% one-year ahead. Markets now price two hikes starting June, reflecting trader consensus on the ECB's hawkish pivot to combat upside inflation risks before year-end, though a sharp growth slowdown could delay action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$102,746End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.6% annually in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February, with April flash data showing headline at 3.0% and core at 2.2%, driven by persistent energy price surges from the Iran conflict despite a fragile ceasefire. The ECB's Governing Council held key deposit rates steady at its March 19 meeting but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, aligning with IMF projections for a 50 basis point hike to maintain neutral monetary policy amid elevated consumer inflation expectations at 4.0% one-year ahead. Markets now price two hikes starting June, reflecting trader consensus on the ECB's hawkish pivot to combat upside inflation risks before year-end, though a sharp growth slowdown could delay action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$103,570End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.6% annually in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February, with April flash data showing headline at 3.0% and core at 2.2%, driven by persistent energy price surges from the Iran conflict despite a fragile ceasefire. The ECB's Governing Council held key deposit rates steady at its March 19 meeting but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, aligning with IMF projections for a 50 basis point hike to maintain neutral monetary policy amid elevated consumer inflation expectations at 4.0% one-year ahead. Markets now price two hikes starting June, reflecting trader consensus on the ECB's hawkish pivot to combat upside inflation risks before year-end, though a sharp growth slowdown could delay action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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