Recent data and Banxico communications following the May 7, 2026, 25-basis-point cut to 6.50% underpin the 93.1% market-implied probability of no change at the June 25 meeting. The split 3-2 vote and accompanying statement framed the reduction as the conclusion of the easing cycle that began in 2024, citing Q1 economic contraction, reduced demand pressures, and expectations for inflation to reach the 3% target in Q2 2027 despite short-term upward forecast revisions. Geopolitical and trade uncertainties further support holding the policy rate steady. A sharper disinflation trajectory or deeper growth slowdown could still tilt the board toward another cut, while sustained above-target readings would be required to shift toward a hike.