Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) target overnight interbank rate at June's meeting, reflecting caution after the March 26, 2026, surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% amid a split Governing Board vote and headline inflation near 4.6% y/y in March. Early April CPI eased modestly to 4.53% y/y, yet core pressures and elevated services inflation persist above the 3% target, prompting traders to bet on a pause as Governor comments signal nearing the end of the easing cycle. A 24.5% chance of decrease hinges on further disinflation, while a 21.9% hike odds capture tail risks from external shocks; watch May's decision and mid-May CPI for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Mexico Decision in June
Bank of Mexico Decision in June
No change 80%
Decrease 34%
Increase 23.3%
Decrease
34%
No change
70%
Increase
23%
No change 80%
Decrease 34%
Increase 23.3%
Decrease
34%
No change
70%
Increase
23%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) target overnight interbank rate at June's meeting, reflecting caution after the March 26, 2026, surprise 25 basis point cut to 6.75% amid a split Governing Board vote and headline inflation near 4.6% y/y in March. Early April CPI eased modestly to 4.53% y/y, yet core pressures and elevated services inflation persist above the 3% target, prompting traders to bet on a pause as Governor comments signal nearing the end of the easing cycle. A 24.5% chance of decrease hinges on further disinflation, while a 21.9% hike odds capture tail risks from external shocks; watch May's decision and mid-May CPI for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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