Polymarket traders assign a 67% implied probability to no change in the Bank Rate at 3.75% for the June 18 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, following the April 29 MPC's 8-1 vote to hold amid March 2026 CPI inflation climbing to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by motor fuel and energy price surges from Middle East conflict. The majority cited loosening labor market conditions, weakening economic activity, and tighter financial terms as offsets to near-term inflation upside, tempering hawkish pressures despite one dissent for a 25 basis point hike. A 31% chance of that increase reflects persistent above-2% target inflation risks and potential second-round effects, with April CPI and wage settlements as key upcoming catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of England decision in June?
Bank of England decision in June?
No change 67%
25 bps increase 33%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$57,921 Vol.
$57,921 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
67%
25 bps increase
33%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 67%
25 bps increase 33%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$57,921 Vol.
$57,921 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
67%
25 bps increase
33%
50+ bps increase
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 67% implied probability to no change in the Bank Rate at 3.75% for the June 18 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, following the April 29 MPC's 8-1 vote to hold amid March 2026 CPI inflation climbing to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by motor fuel and energy price surges from Middle East conflict. The majority cited loosening labor market conditions, weakening economic activity, and tighter financial terms as offsets to near-term inflation upside, tempering hawkish pressures despite one dissent for a 25 basis point hike. A 31% chance of that increase reflects persistent above-2% target inflation risks and potential second-round effects, with April CPI and wage settlements as key upcoming catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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