Recent UK CPI data cooling to 2.8% year-over-year in April 2026, alongside a loosening labor market and subdued growth, underpin the 56% market-implied probability of no Bank of England rate hike through year-end. Traders are pricing in the BoE’s pause at the prevailing 3.75% Bank Rate, with futures reflecting limited tightening odds despite upside inflation risks from Middle East energy price shocks. Policymakers have signaled tolerance for above-target inflation in the near term while monitoring second-round effects, and Governor Bailey has noted no urgency for hikes amid uncertainty. The June 18 MPC meeting and subsequent releases will clarify whether persistent fuel cost pass-through shifts the implied rate path higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$35,866 Vol.
$35,866 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$35,866 Vol.
$35,866 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent UK CPI data cooling to 2.8% year-over-year in April 2026, alongside a loosening labor market and subdued growth, underpin the 56% market-implied probability of no Bank of England rate hike through year-end. Traders are pricing in the BoE’s pause at the prevailing 3.75% Bank Rate, with futures reflecting limited tightening odds despite upside inflation risks from Middle East energy price shocks. Policymakers have signaled tolerance for above-target inflation in the near term while monitoring second-round effects, and Governor Bailey has noted no urgency for hikes amid uncertainty. The June 18 MPC meeting and subsequent releases will clarify whether persistent fuel cost pass-through shifts the implied rate path higher.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ET
Volume
$35,866End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent UK CPI data cooling to 2.8% year-over-year in April 2026, alongside a loosening labor market and subdued growth, underpin the 56% market-implied probability of no Bank of England rate hike through year-end. Traders are pricing in the BoE’s pause at the prevailing 3.75% Bank Rate, with futures reflecting limited tightening odds despite upside inflation risks from Middle East energy price shocks. Policymakers have signaled tolerance for above-target inflation in the near term while monitoring second-round effects, and Governor Bailey has noted no urgency for hikes amid uncertainty. The June 18 MPC meeting and subsequent releases will clarify whether persistent fuel cost pass-through shifts the implied rate path higher.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of England's Bank Rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$35,866End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent UK CPI data cooling to 2.8% year-over-year in April 2026, alongside a loosening labor market and subdued growth, underpin the 56% market-implied probability of no Bank of England rate hike through year-end. Traders are pricing in the BoE’s pause at the prevailing 3.75% Bank Rate, with futures reflecting limited tightening odds despite upside inflation risks from Middle East energy price shocks. Policymakers have signaled tolerance for above-target inflation in the near term while monitoring second-round effects, and Governor Bailey has noted no urgency for hikes amid uncertainty. The June 18 MPC meeting and subsequent releases will clarify whether persistent fuel cost pass-through shifts the implied rate path higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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