Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the third straight meeting, despite elevated inflation from Middle East tensions spiking energy prices. March's core PCE rose modestly while headline figures reflected goods pressures, but unemployment held at 4.3% and the March dot plot median still envisions a single 25 basis point cut by year-end, signaling policy restraint over tightening. Futures via CME FedWatch similarly imply steady rates around 3.6% through 2026. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC with updated projections, where hotter data or persistent oil surges could challenge this view.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$974,369 Vol.
$974,369 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
$974,369 Vol.
$974,369 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the third straight meeting, despite elevated inflation from Middle East tensions spiking energy prices. March's core PCE rose modestly while headline figures reflected goods pressures, but unemployment held at 4.3% and the March dot plot median still envisions a single 25 basis point cut by year-end, signaling policy restraint over tightening. Futures via CME FedWatch similarly imply steady rates around 3.6% through 2026. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC with updated projections, where hotter data or persistent oil surges could challenge this view.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$974,369End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the third straight meeting, despite elevated inflation from Middle East tensions spiking energy prices. March's core PCE rose modestly while headline figures reflected goods pressures, but unemployment held at 4.3% and the March dot plot median still envisions a single 25 basis point cut by year-end, signaling policy restraint over tightening. Futures via CME FedWatch similarly imply steady rates around 3.6% through 2026. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC with updated projections, where hotter data or persistent oil surges could challenge this view.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$974,369End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the third straight meeting, despite elevated inflation from Middle East tensions spiking energy prices. March's core PCE rose modestly while headline figures reflected goods pressures, but unemployment held at 4.3% and the March dot plot median still envisions a single 25 basis point cut by year-end, signaling policy restraint over tightening. Futures via CME FedWatch similarly imply steady rates around 3.6% through 2026. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC with updated projections, where hotter data or persistent oil surges could challenge this view.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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