Persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and geopolitical tensions have kept the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026, with the effective rate near 3.62%, supporting trader consensus against a hike this year. A resilient labor market, highlighted by strong May payrolls, has reduced downside risks and shifted focus from cuts—now largely priced out for 2026—to a prolonged hold, though some FOMC participants have flagged potential tightening if price pressures accelerate. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the June 17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on inflation and employment serving as key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,917,624 Vol.
$1,917,624 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
$1,917,624 Vol.
$1,917,624 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and geopolitical tensions have kept the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026, with the effective rate near 3.62%, supporting trader consensus against a hike this year. A resilient labor market, highlighted by strong May payrolls, has reduced downside risks and shifted focus from cuts—now largely priced out for 2026—to a prolonged hold, though some FOMC participants have flagged potential tightening if price pressures accelerate. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the June 17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on inflation and employment serving as key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,917,624End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and geopolitical tensions have kept the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026, with the effective rate near 3.62%, supporting trader consensus against a hike this year. A resilient labor market, highlighted by strong May payrolls, has reduced downside risks and shifted focus from cuts—now largely priced out for 2026—to a prolonged hold, though some FOMC participants have flagged potential tightening if price pressures accelerate. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the June 17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on inflation and employment serving as key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,917,624End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and geopolitical tensions have kept the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range through mid-2026, with the effective rate near 3.62%, supporting trader consensus against a hike this year. A resilient labor market, highlighted by strong May payrolls, has reduced downside risks and shifted focus from cuts—now largely priced out for 2026—to a prolonged hold, though some FOMC participants have flagged potential tightening if price pressures accelerate. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the June 17 FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on inflation and employment serving as key near-term catalysts that could alter the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions