The ECB's June 11, 2026, decision to raise its key rates by 25 basis points—the first hike in three years—reflects upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections to 3.0% headline and 2.5% core, driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Euro area growth forecasts were trimmed to 0.8% amid weaker confidence and commodity shocks, yet the Governing Council prioritized anchoring inflation at the 2% target over near-term easing. Market pricing now embeds expectations of further hikes or prolonged holds through year-end, with limited scope for cuts as policymakers adopt a data-dependent stance amid persistent upside inflation risks. This hawkish pivot underpins the strong trader consensus against any 2026 rate reduction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$28,257 Vol.
$28,257 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$28,257 Vol.
$28,257 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's June 11, 2026, decision to raise its key rates by 25 basis points—the first hike in three years—reflects upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections to 3.0% headline and 2.5% core, driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Euro area growth forecasts were trimmed to 0.8% amid weaker confidence and commodity shocks, yet the Governing Council prioritized anchoring inflation at the 2% target over near-term easing. Market pricing now embeds expectations of further hikes or prolonged holds through year-end, with limited scope for cuts as policymakers adopt a data-dependent stance amid persistent upside inflation risks. This hawkish pivot underpins the strong trader consensus against any 2026 rate reduction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$28,257Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ECB's June 11, 2026, decision to raise its key rates by 25 basis points—the first hike in three years—reflects upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections to 3.0% headline and 2.5% core, driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Euro area growth forecasts were trimmed to 0.8% amid weaker confidence and commodity shocks, yet the Governing Council prioritized anchoring inflation at the 2% target over near-term easing. Market pricing now embeds expectations of further hikes or prolonged holds through year-end, with limited scope for cuts as policymakers adopt a data-dependent stance amid persistent upside inflation risks. This hawkish pivot underpins the strong trader consensus against any 2026 rate reduction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$28,257Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ECB's June 11, 2026, decision to raise its key rates by 25 basis points—the first hike in three years—reflects upward revisions to 2026 inflation projections to 3.0% headline and 2.5% core, driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Euro area growth forecasts were trimmed to 0.8% amid weaker confidence and commodity shocks, yet the Governing Council prioritized anchoring inflation at the 2% target over near-term easing. Market pricing now embeds expectations of further hikes or prolonged holds through year-end, with limited scope for cuts as policymakers adopt a data-dependent stance amid persistent upside inflation risks. This hawkish pivot underpins the strong trader consensus against any 2026 rate reduction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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