Brazil's Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority to convict and remove an STF justice for a crime of responsibility, a high constitutional threshold that has not been met despite past opposition petitions targeting figures such as Alexandre de Moraes over electoral and digital platform rulings. Current Senate composition and centrist congressional dynamics limit momentum for such proceedings through mid-2026, while the STF has reviewed its own impeachment procedures in anticipation of potential post-election shifts. Trader consensus at 96.4% "No" reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any successful removal process in recent cycles. Plausible shifts before 2027 remain limited to an unexpected supermajority realignment after the 2026 legislative elections or a major unifying scandal capable of securing the necessary votes in the upper house.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$81,555 Vol.
$81,555 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$81,555 Vol.
$81,555 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority to convict and remove an STF justice for a crime of responsibility, a high constitutional threshold that has not been met despite past opposition petitions targeting figures such as Alexandre de Moraes over electoral and digital platform rulings. Current Senate composition and centrist congressional dynamics limit momentum for such proceedings through mid-2026, while the STF has reviewed its own impeachment procedures in anticipation of potential post-election shifts. Trader consensus at 96.4% "No" reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any successful removal process in recent cycles. Plausible shifts before 2027 remain limited to an unexpected supermajority realignment after the 2026 legislative elections or a major unifying scandal capable of securing the necessary votes in the upper house.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$81,555End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority to convict and remove an STF justice for a crime of responsibility, a high constitutional threshold that has not been met despite past opposition petitions targeting figures such as Alexandre de Moraes over electoral and digital platform rulings. Current Senate composition and centrist congressional dynamics limit momentum for such proceedings through mid-2026, while the STF has reviewed its own impeachment procedures in anticipation of potential post-election shifts. Trader consensus at 96.4% "No" reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any successful removal process in recent cycles. Plausible shifts before 2027 remain limited to an unexpected supermajority realignment after the 2026 legislative elections or a major unifying scandal capable of securing the necessary votes in the upper house.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$81,555End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority to convict and remove an STF justice for a crime of responsibility, a high constitutional threshold that has not been met despite past opposition petitions targeting figures such as Alexandre de Moraes over electoral and digital platform rulings. Current Senate composition and centrist congressional dynamics limit momentum for such proceedings through mid-2026, while the STF has reviewed its own impeachment procedures in anticipation of potential post-election shifts. Trader consensus at 96.4% "No" reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any successful removal process in recent cycles. Plausible shifts before 2027 remain limited to an unexpected supermajority realignment after the 2026 legislative elections or a major unifying scandal capable of securing the necessary votes in the upper house.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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