The absence of any filed charges or public arrest warrant against E. Jean Carroll, combined with the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois denying reports of a criminal probe into potential perjury from her prior civil testimony, drives the 97.8% trader consensus against an arrest by June 30. Any DOJ inquiry reportedly remains at an early stage with no new evidence cited to support swift action, while standard federal procedures for indictment, probable cause review, and execution of an arrest require far more time than the roughly three weeks left. Carroll’s age and lack of prior criminal record further reduce the likelihood of expedited enforcement. An arrest could still occur only if authorities rapidly secure and act on a warrant amid shifting official statements, though historical patterns for such matters show this outcome as highly improbable within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if E. Jean Carroll is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any filed charges or public arrest warrant against E. Jean Carroll, combined with the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois denying reports of a criminal probe into potential perjury from her prior civil testimony, drives the 97.8% trader consensus against an arrest by June 30. Any DOJ inquiry reportedly remains at an early stage with no new evidence cited to support swift action, while standard federal procedures for indictment, probable cause review, and execution of an arrest require far more time than the roughly three weeks left. Carroll’s age and lack of prior criminal record further reduce the likelihood of expedited enforcement. An arrest could still occur only if authorities rapidly secure and act on a warrant amid shifting official statements, though historical patterns for such matters show this outcome as highly improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if E. Jean Carroll is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 28, 2026, 3:37 PM ET
Volume
$1,064End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if E. Jean Carroll is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any filed charges or public arrest warrant against E. Jean Carroll, combined with the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois denying reports of a criminal probe into potential perjury from her prior civil testimony, drives the 97.8% trader consensus against an arrest by June 30. Any DOJ inquiry reportedly remains at an early stage with no new evidence cited to support swift action, while standard federal procedures for indictment, probable cause review, and execution of an arrest require far more time than the roughly three weeks left. Carroll’s age and lack of prior criminal record further reduce the likelihood of expedited enforcement. An arrest could still occur only if authorities rapidly secure and act on a warrant amid shifting official statements, though historical patterns for such matters show this outcome as highly improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if E. Jean Carroll is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,064End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any filed charges or public arrest warrant against E. Jean Carroll, combined with the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois denying reports of a criminal probe into potential perjury from her prior civil testimony, drives the 97.8% trader consensus against an arrest by June 30. Any DOJ inquiry reportedly remains at an early stage with no new evidence cited to support swift action, while standard federal procedures for indictment, probable cause review, and execution of an arrest require far more time than the roughly three weeks left. Carroll’s age and lack of prior criminal record further reduce the likelihood of expedited enforcement. An arrest could still occur only if authorities rapidly secure and act on a warrant amid shifting official statements, though historical patterns for such matters show this outcome as highly improbable within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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