Trader consensus favors no Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 59.5%, reflecting the court's full nine-justice roster through late April amid resolved health concerns for Justice Samuel Alito, who was briefly hospitalized for dehydration on April 3 but has since returned to duties. Reports from sources close to Justices Alito and Clarence Thomas on April 17 indicate neither plans to retire this year, tempering earlier speculation fueled by their ages and President Trump's public preparedness for potential nominations ahead of November midterms. With no official retirement announcements or other departures in the first four months and the Supreme Court term winding down by late June, traders price low near-term risk despite inherent uncertainties in judicial health and tenure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors no Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 59.5%, reflecting the court's full nine-justice roster through late April amid resolved health concerns for Justice Samuel Alito, who was briefly hospitalized for dehydration on April 3 but has since returned to duties. Reports from sources close to Justices Alito and Clarence Thomas on April 17 indicate neither plans to retire this year, tempering earlier speculation fueled by their ages and President Trump's public preparedness for potential nominations ahead of November midterms. With no official retirement announcements or other departures in the first four months and the Supreme Court term winding down by late June, traders price low near-term risk despite inherent uncertainties in judicial health and tenure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Volume
$4,361End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favors no Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 59.5%, reflecting the court's full nine-justice roster through late April amid resolved health concerns for Justice Samuel Alito, who was briefly hospitalized for dehydration on April 3 but has since returned to duties. Reports from sources close to Justices Alito and Clarence Thomas on April 17 indicate neither plans to retire this year, tempering earlier speculation fueled by their ages and President Trump's public preparedness for potential nominations ahead of November midterms. With no official retirement announcements or other departures in the first four months and the Supreme Court term winding down by late June, traders price low near-term risk despite inherent uncertainties in judicial health and tenure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,361End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 59.5%, reflecting the court's full nine-justice roster through late April amid resolved health concerns for Justice Samuel Alito, who was briefly hospitalized for dehydration on April 3 but has since returned to duties. Reports from sources close to Justices Alito and Clarence Thomas on April 17 indicate neither plans to retire this year, tempering earlier speculation fueled by their ages and President Trump's public preparedness for potential nominations ahead of November midterms. With no official retirement announcements or other departures in the first four months and the Supreme Court term winding down by late June, traders price low near-term risk despite inherent uncertainties in judicial health and tenure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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