Trader consensus reflects an 79% implied probability for "No" charges stemming from Epstein disclosures, driven by the U.S. Department of Justice's release of over 3.5 million pages since January 2026 under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which named prominent figures but yielded no federal or state indictments or prosecutions directly attributed to the new files. An April 23 DOJ inspector general review targets compliance and redaction processes rather than fresh investigations, while an NPR report cited statutes of limitations, evidentiary gaps, and uncoordinated victim accounts as key barriers. Congressional probes, including upcoming testimony from Attorney General Pam Bondi on prior plea deals, persist, but historical patterns of closed FBI inquiries without broader charges underpin trader skepticism ahead of the December 31, 2026, resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$127,740 Vol.
$127,740 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$127,740 Vol.
$127,740 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 79% implied probability for "No" charges stemming from Epstein disclosures, driven by the U.S. Department of Justice's release of over 3.5 million pages since January 2026 under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which named prominent figures but yielded no federal or state indictments or prosecutions directly attributed to the new files. An April 23 DOJ inspector general review targets compliance and redaction processes rather than fresh investigations, while an NPR report cited statutes of limitations, evidentiary gaps, and uncoordinated victim accounts as key barriers. Congressional probes, including upcoming testimony from Attorney General Pam Bondi on prior plea deals, persist, but historical patterns of closed FBI inquiries without broader charges underpin trader skepticism ahead of the December 31, 2026, resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$127,740End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 79% implied probability for "No" charges stemming from Epstein disclosures, driven by the U.S. Department of Justice's release of over 3.5 million pages since January 2026 under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which named prominent figures but yielded no federal or state indictments or prosecutions directly attributed to the new files. An April 23 DOJ inspector general review targets compliance and redaction processes rather than fresh investigations, while an NPR report cited statutes of limitations, evidentiary gaps, and uncoordinated victim accounts as key barriers. Congressional probes, including upcoming testimony from Attorney General Pam Bondi on prior plea deals, persist, but historical patterns of closed FBI inquiries without broader charges underpin trader skepticism ahead of the December 31, 2026, resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$127,740End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 79% implied probability for "No" charges stemming from Epstein disclosures, driven by the U.S. Department of Justice's release of over 3.5 million pages since January 2026 under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, which named prominent figures but yielded no federal or state indictments or prosecutions directly attributed to the new files. An April 23 DOJ inspector general review targets compliance and redaction processes rather than fresh investigations, while an NPR report cited statutes of limitations, evidentiary gaps, and uncoordinated victim accounts as key barriers. Congressional probes, including upcoming testimony from Attorney General Pam Bondi on prior plea deals, persist, but historical patterns of closed FBI inquiries without broader charges underpin trader skepticism ahead of the December 31, 2026, resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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