Ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian-linked vessels, imposed April 13 amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, has curtailed commercial ship transits to 4-15 daily—down from pre-conflict norms of 125-140 per IMF Portwatch data—exacerbating a 20 million barrel-per-day oil supply shock equivalent to 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Brent crude futures hover above $115 per barrel, with intraday spikes past $125 reflecting tight inventories and rerouted tanker flows, while very large crude carrier charter rates exceed $100,000 daily and war-risk insurance premiums hit 1% of hull value per transit for $200-300 million vessels. Recent U.S. warship passages and Japan's diplomatic push for safe passage underscore military posturing, but Iran's reciprocal restrictions and threats sustain elevated risk premiums. Key catalysts ahead include Trump administration CENTCOM briefings, potential U.S.-led maritime coalitions, and stalled Tehran proposals for unrestricted access conditional on blockade lift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
31 may 2026
20+
73%
40+
39%
60+
25%
80+
16%
$1,105 Vol.
20+
$970 Vol.
73%
40+
$26 Vol.
39%
60+
$2 Vol.
25%
80+
$107 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian-linked vessels, imposed April 13 amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, has curtailed commercial ship transits to 4-15 daily—down from pre-conflict norms of 125-140 per IMF Portwatch data—exacerbating a 20 million barrel-per-day oil supply shock equivalent to 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Brent crude futures hover above $115 per barrel, with intraday spikes past $125 reflecting tight inventories and rerouted tanker flows, while very large crude carrier charter rates exceed $100,000 daily and war-risk insurance premiums hit 1% of hull value per transit for $200-300 million vessels. Recent U.S. warship passages and Japan's diplomatic push for safe passage underscore military posturing, but Iran's reciprocal restrictions and threats sustain elevated risk premiums. Key catalysts ahead include Trump administration CENTCOM briefings, potential U.S.-led maritime coalitions, and stalled Tehran proposals for unrestricted access conditional on blockade lift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volumen
$1,105Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian-linked vessels, imposed April 13 amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, has curtailed commercial ship transits to 4-15 daily—down from pre-conflict norms of 125-140 per IMF Portwatch data—exacerbating a 20 million barrel-per-day oil supply shock equivalent to 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Brent crude futures hover above $115 per barrel, with intraday spikes past $125 reflecting tight inventories and rerouted tanker flows, while very large crude carrier charter rates exceed $100,000 daily and war-risk insurance premiums hit 1% of hull value per transit for $200-300 million vessels. Recent U.S. warship passages and Japan's diplomatic push for safe passage underscore military posturing, but Iran's reciprocal restrictions and threats sustain elevated risk premiums. Key catalysts ahead include Trump administration CENTCOM briefings, potential U.S.-led maritime coalitions, and stalled Tehran proposals for unrestricted access conditional on blockade lift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$1,105Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian-linked vessels, imposed April 13 amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, has curtailed commercial ship transits to 4-15 daily—down from pre-conflict norms of 125-140 per IMF Portwatch data—exacerbating a 20 million barrel-per-day oil supply shock equivalent to 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Brent crude futures hover above $115 per barrel, with intraday spikes past $125 reflecting tight inventories and rerouted tanker flows, while very large crude carrier charter rates exceed $100,000 daily and war-risk insurance premiums hit 1% of hull value per transit for $200-300 million vessels. Recent U.S. warship passages and Japan's diplomatic push for safe passage underscore military posturing, but Iran's reciprocal restrictions and threats sustain elevated risk premiums. Key catalysts ahead include Trump administration CENTCOM briefings, potential U.S.-led maritime coalitions, and stalled Tehran proposals for unrestricted access conditional on blockade lift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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