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Geopolítica·Recompensas 200, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?

icon for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?
Geopolítica·Recompensas 200, 4.5, 20

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?

may 3

may 3

25-49 57%

50-74 19%

<25 9%

75-99 7.8%

Polymarket

$25,019 Vol.

25-49 57%

50-74 19%

<25 9%

75-99 7.8%

Polymarket

$25,019 Vol.

<25

$2,472 Vol.

9%

25-49

$8,767 Vol.

57%

50-74

$4,348 Vol.

19%

75-99

$1,111 Vol.

8%

100-124

$2,799 Vol.

1%

125-149

$2,997 Vol.

1%

150+

$2,528 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, 2026, reflecting severely suppressed vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war and associated maritime disruptions. Recent daily counts—8 vessels on April 26, 19 on April 25, 13 on April 29, and 20 in the last 24 hours as of April 30—underscore a persistent decline from pre-conflict averages of 120-140 ships per day, driven by US naval blockades redirecting 38 vessels since April 13, Iranian IRGC seizures like two container ships on April 22, and war risk insurance premiums at 1% of hull value. Heightened enforcement and selective passages for Iran-linked or friendly-nation ships maintain low volumes, with potential escalations or diplomatic shifts ahead of May 3 resolution posing swing risks to final tallies.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$25,019
Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 57.5% implied probability for 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of April 27, 2026, reflecting severely suppressed vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 US-Iran war and associated maritime disruptions. Recent daily counts—8 vessels on April 26, 19 on April 25, 13 on April 29, and 20 in the last 24 hours as of April 30—underscore a persistent decline from pre-conflict averages of 120-140 ships per day, driven by US naval blockades redirecting 38 vessels since April 13, Iranian IRGC seizures like two container ships on April 22, and war risk insurance premiums at 1% of hull value. Heightened enforcement and selective passages for Iran-linked or friendly-nation ships maintain low volumes, with potential escalations or diplomatic shifts ahead of May 3 resolution posing swing risks to final tallies.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$25,019
Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 27, 2026, through May 3, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "25-49" con 57%, seguido de "50-74" con 19%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 57¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 57% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?" ha generado $25K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 27, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?" es "25-49" con 57%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 57% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "50-74" con 19%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of Apr 27?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.