Amid the US-Iran conflict's naval standoff since late February 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism for 60 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, as daily volumes remain critically low—averaging under 20 vessels per IMF PortWatch and Windward tracking, with April 29 at 20 crossings and April 28 at 13-24. Early April US warship passages and recent humanitarian exemptions for select tankers have enabled a trickle, but IRGC controls and US blockades enforce restrictions, driving Brent crude above $112 per barrel and VLCC charter rates to records over $470,000/day on Middle East-China routes. Resolution looms at end-of-day April 30, with slim prospects for a surge absent diplomatic breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Los __ barcos transitarán por el Estrecho de Ormuz algún día a finales de abril?
¿Los __ barcos transitarán por el Estrecho de Ormuz algún día a finales de abril?
$1,439,430 Vol.
30 abr 2026
40+
1%
60+
<1%
80+
<1%
$1,439,430 Vol.
40+
$278,855 Vol.
1%
60+
$307,876 Vol.
<1%
80+
$401,937 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the US-Iran conflict's naval standoff since late February 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism for 60 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, as daily volumes remain critically low—averaging under 20 vessels per IMF PortWatch and Windward tracking, with April 29 at 20 crossings and April 28 at 13-24. Early April US warship passages and recent humanitarian exemptions for select tankers have enabled a trickle, but IRGC controls and US blockades enforce restrictions, driving Brent crude above $112 per barrel and VLCC charter rates to records over $470,000/day on Middle East-China routes. Resolution looms at end-of-day April 30, with slim prospects for a surge absent diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,439,430Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the US-Iran conflict's naval standoff since late February 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism for 60 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, as daily volumes remain critically low—averaging under 20 vessels per IMF PortWatch and Windward tracking, with April 29 at 20 crossings and April 28 at 13-24. Early April US warship passages and recent humanitarian exemptions for select tankers have enabled a trickle, but IRGC controls and US blockades enforce restrictions, driving Brent crude above $112 per barrel and VLCC charter rates to records over $470,000/day on Middle East-China routes. Resolution looms at end-of-day April 30, with slim prospects for a surge absent diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$1,439,430Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Iran conflict's naval standoff since late February 2026, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep skepticism for 60 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day by April 30, as daily volumes remain critically low—averaging under 20 vessels per IMF PortWatch and Windward tracking, with April 29 at 20 crossings and April 28 at 13-24. Early April US warship passages and recent humanitarian exemptions for select tankers have enabled a trickle, but IRGC controls and US blockades enforce restrictions, driving Brent crude above $112 per barrel and VLCC charter rates to records over $470,000/day on Middle East-China routes. Resolution looms at end-of-day April 30, with slim prospects for a surge absent diplomatic breakthroughs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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