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icon for ¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?

¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?

icon for ¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?

¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?

$17,495,588 Vol.

30 jun 2026
Polymarket

$17,495,588 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de junio

$2,989,582 Vol.

4%

31 de diciembre

$2,907,179 Vol.

21%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, during escalated military conflict, triggering the constitutional succession process via a temporary leadership council and the Assembly of Experts. The 88-member clerical body selected Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor in early March 2026, completing the transition with minimal interim disruption. Trader sentiment on leadership change markets has been shaped by these confirmed events, alongside earlier 2025-early 2026 pressures from protests, economic strain, and regional military setbacks that increased speculation about instability. No major new developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter the post-succession landscape, though ongoing geopolitical tensions could influence perceptions of regime continuity or future shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$17,495,588
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, during escalated military conflict, triggering the constitutional succession process via a temporary leadership council and the Assembly of Experts. The 88-member clerical body selected Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor in early March 2026, completing the transition with minimal interim disruption. Trader sentiment on leadership change markets has been shaped by these confirmed events, alongside earlier 2025-early 2026 pressures from protests, economic strain, and regional military setbacks that increased speculation about instability. No major new developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter the post-succession landscape, though ongoing geopolitical tensions could influence perceptions of regime continuity or future shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$17,495,588
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de diciembre" con 21%, seguido de "30 de junio" con 4%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 21¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 21% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" ha generado $17.5 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 9, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" es "31 de diciembre" con 21%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 21% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de junio" con 4%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.