Trader consensus on further Iranian leadership change reflects persistent unverified reports of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's deteriorating health from US-Israel airstrikes in March 2026, shortly after his father Ali Khamenei's death prompted his rapid appointment. Iranian officials dismissed April rumors of unconsciousness, severe burns, leg amputation, and multiple surgeries, insisting he remains "fine" and issuing defiant statements on Persian Gulf control and US expulsion. Amid IRGC power consolidation, collapsed ceasefire negotiations, and US naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, splits between military and diplomatic figures heighten instability risks. Upcoming Trump administration strikes or health confirmations could sway outcomes, though regime opacity tempers expectations for near-term transition.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$12,394,939 Vol.
30 abr 2026
30 de abril
<1%
31 de mayo
14%
30 de junio
20%
31 de diciembre
41%
$12,394,939 Vol.
30 de abril
$5,174,829 Vol.
<1%
31 de mayo
$1,211,240 Vol.
14%
30 de junio
$731,667 Vol.
20%
31 de diciembre
$2,046,446 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on further Iranian leadership change reflects persistent unverified reports of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's deteriorating health from US-Israel airstrikes in March 2026, shortly after his father Ali Khamenei's death prompted his rapid appointment. Iranian officials dismissed April rumors of unconsciousness, severe burns, leg amputation, and multiple surgeries, insisting he remains "fine" and issuing defiant statements on Persian Gulf control and US expulsion. Amid IRGC power consolidation, collapsed ceasefire negotiations, and US naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, splits between military and diplomatic figures heighten instability risks. Upcoming Trump administration strikes or health confirmations could sway outcomes, though regime opacity tempers expectations for near-term transition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volumen
$12,394,939Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on further Iranian leadership change reflects persistent unverified reports of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's deteriorating health from US-Israel airstrikes in March 2026, shortly after his father Ali Khamenei's death prompted his rapid appointment. Iranian officials dismissed April rumors of unconsciousness, severe burns, leg amputation, and multiple surgeries, insisting he remains "fine" and issuing defiant statements on Persian Gulf control and US expulsion. Amid IRGC power consolidation, collapsed ceasefire negotiations, and US naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, splits between military and diplomatic figures heighten instability risks. Upcoming Trump administration strikes or health confirmations could sway outcomes, though regime opacity tempers expectations for near-term transition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$12,394,939Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on further Iranian leadership change reflects persistent unverified reports of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's deteriorating health from US-Israel airstrikes in March 2026, shortly after his father Ali Khamenei's death prompted his rapid appointment. Iranian officials dismissed April rumors of unconsciousness, severe burns, leg amputation, and multiple surgeries, insisting he remains "fine" and issuing defiant statements on Persian Gulf control and US expulsion. Amid IRGC power consolidation, collapsed ceasefire negotiations, and US naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, splits between military and diplomatic figures heighten instability risks. Upcoming Trump administration strikes or health confirmations could sway outcomes, though regime opacity tempers expectations for near-term transition.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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