Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for an Iranian agent—such as an IRGC operative or spy engaged in espionage or assassination plots—being charged by the Department of Justice by May 31, reflecting the absence of qualifying DOJ or FBI indictments in recent weeks. The March conviction of Pakistani national Asif Merchant in an Iran-linked murder-for-hire scheme targeting Donald Trump marked the last major such case, but no new charges against Iranian intelligence personnel have followed. Recent actions, including the April 19 arrest of Iranian national Shamim Mafi at LAX for sanctions violations tied to brokering arms sales to Sudan and the April 25 indictment of Jafar Tafakori for migrant smuggling, involve economic crimes rather than explicit agency allegations. Amid heightened U.S. sanctions on Iran weapons networks and ongoing regional tensions, including a naval blockade, traders see insufficient momentum for a qualifying development before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWill an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for an Iranian agent—such as an IRGC operative or spy engaged in espionage or assassination plots—being charged by the Department of Justice by May 31, reflecting the absence of qualifying DOJ or FBI indictments in recent weeks. The March conviction of Pakistani national Asif Merchant in an Iran-linked murder-for-hire scheme targeting Donald Trump marked the last major such case, but no new charges against Iranian intelligence personnel have followed. Recent actions, including the April 19 arrest of Iranian national Shamim Mafi at LAX for sanctions violations tied to brokering arms sales to Sudan and the April 25 indictment of Jafar Tafakori for migrant smuggling, involve economic crimes rather than explicit agency allegations. Amid heightened U.S. sanctions on Iran weapons networks and ongoing regional tensions, including a naval blockade, traders see insufficient momentum for a qualifying development before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
Volumen
$962Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for an Iranian agent—such as an IRGC operative or spy engaged in espionage or assassination plots—being charged by the Department of Justice by May 31, reflecting the absence of qualifying DOJ or FBI indictments in recent weeks. The March conviction of Pakistani national Asif Merchant in an Iran-linked murder-for-hire scheme targeting Donald Trump marked the last major such case, but no new charges against Iranian intelligence personnel have followed. Recent actions, including the April 19 arrest of Iranian national Shamim Mafi at LAX for sanctions violations tied to brokering arms sales to Sudan and the April 25 indictment of Jafar Tafakori for migrant smuggling, involve economic crimes rather than explicit agency allegations. Amid heightened U.S. sanctions on Iran weapons networks and ongoing regional tensions, including a naval blockade, traders see insufficient momentum for a qualifying development before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.
For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$962Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 77.5% implied probability for an Iranian agent—such as an IRGC operative or spy engaged in espionage or assassination plots—being charged by the Department of Justice by May 31, reflecting the absence of qualifying DOJ or FBI indictments in recent weeks. The March conviction of Pakistani national Asif Merchant in an Iran-linked murder-for-hire scheme targeting Donald Trump marked the last major such case, but no new charges against Iranian intelligence personnel have followed. Recent actions, including the April 19 arrest of Iranian national Shamim Mafi at LAX for sanctions violations tied to brokering arms sales to Sudan and the April 25 indictment of Jafar Tafakori for migrant smuggling, involve economic crimes rather than explicit agency allegations. Amid heightened U.S. sanctions on Iran weapons networks and ongoing regional tensions, including a naval blockade, traders see insufficient momentum for a qualifying development before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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