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Geopolítica·Irán

¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?

icon for ¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?
Geopolítica·Irán

¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?

Ended: abr 30

Ended: abr 30

$557,132 Vol.

30 abr 2026
Polymarket

$557,132 Vol.

Polymarket

Campo Safaniya

$17,945 Vol.

No

Ras Tanura

$45,825 Vol.

No

Dimona (Centro de Investigación Nuclear del Néguev Shimon Peres)

$96,891 Vol.

No

instalación de procesamiento de petróleo de Abqaiq

$46,694 Vol.

No

Refinería Mina Al-Ahmadi

$64,447 Vol.

Sí

Oleoducto Este-Oeste

$38,742 Vol.

Sí

Campo/Complejo de Procesamiento Habshan

$52,951 Vol.

No

Refinería de Ruwais

$48,059 Vol.

No

Refinería de Al Zour

$31,892 Vol.

No

Ciudad Industrial de Ras Laffan

$48,171 Vol.

No

Burj Khalifa

$14,024 Vol.

No

Campo Ghawar

$20,784 Vol.

No

Yacimiento Leviatán

$11,835 Vol.

No

Campo Khurais

$18,874 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that erupted in late February 2026 with strikes on Iranian targets and a subsequent US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Polymarket traders price negligible odds (1-3%) for Iran conducting kinetic military strikes—such as drone or missile attacks causing physical damage—against high-value Gulf oil fields like Saudi Arabia's Ghawar or Khurais, Israel's Leviathan gas field or Dimona nuclear site, or UAE facilities like Burj Khalifa by the April 30 deadline. This reflects no confirmed direct Iranian actions meeting strict criteria (excluding proxies like Hezbollah or Houthis) in recent weeks, despite earlier retaliatory missile barrages on US bases and Israel. On April 30, Israel's defense minister warned of potential renewed strikes on Iran, briefly spiking oil prices, while Supreme Leader Khamenei affirmed Hormuz control amid stalled ceasefire talks; market resolution awaits consensus reporting, with low prospects for escalation before deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$557,132
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that erupted in late February 2026 with strikes on Iranian targets and a subsequent US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Polymarket traders price negligible odds (1-3%) for Iran conducting kinetic military strikes—such as drone or missile attacks causing physical damage—against high-value Gulf oil fields like Saudi Arabia's Ghawar or Khurais, Israel's Leviathan gas field or Dimona nuclear site, or UAE facilities like Burj Khalifa by the April 30 deadline. This reflects no confirmed direct Iranian actions meeting strict criteria (excluding proxies like Hezbollah or Houthis) in recent weeks, despite earlier retaliatory missile barrages on US bases and Israel. On April 30, Israel's defense minister warned of potential renewed strikes on Iran, briefly spiking oil prices, while Supreme Leader Khamenei affirmed Hormuz control amid stalled ceasefire talks; market resolution awaits consensus reporting, with low prospects for escalation before deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$557,132
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 14 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Refinería Mina Al-Ahmadi" con 100%, seguido de "Oleoducto Este-Oeste" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?" ha generado $557.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 23, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?", explora los 14 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?" es "Refinería Mina Al-Ahmadi" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Oleoducto Este-Oeste" con 100%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.