Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely balanced view at 50.5% for no additional Iranian diplomat expulsion by June 30, driven by a recent wave of diplomatic actions—including Argentina's declaration of Iran's top envoy persona non grata on April 2, U.S. disclosures of December's quiet ouster of Iran's deputy UN ambassador over national security concerns, and earlier March moves by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Lebanon amid Iran-linked missile attacks and proxy escalations—yet no new verified incidents in the past three weeks. Persistent Iran-Israel tensions and potential espionage plots could tip toward yes if fresh intelligence emerges, while ongoing diplomatic channels, such as failed Pakistan talks involving Iran's foreign minister last week, or de-escalation signals might solidify no, with two months remaining until resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely balanced view at 50.5% for no additional Iranian diplomat expulsion by June 30, driven by a recent wave of diplomatic actions—including Argentina's declaration of Iran's top envoy persona non grata on April 2, U.S. disclosures of December's quiet ouster of Iran's deputy UN ambassador over national security concerns, and earlier March moves by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Lebanon amid Iran-linked missile attacks and proxy escalations—yet no new verified incidents in the past three weeks. Persistent Iran-Israel tensions and potential espionage plots could tip toward yes if fresh intelligence emerges, while ongoing diplomatic channels, such as failed Pakistan talks involving Iran's foreign minister last week, or de-escalation signals might solidify no, with two months remaining until resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely balanced view at 50.5% for no additional Iranian diplomat expulsion by June 30, driven by a recent wave of diplomatic actions—including Argentina's declaration of Iran's top envoy persona non grata on April 2, U.S. disclosures of December's quiet ouster of Iran's deputy UN ambassador over national security concerns, and earlier March moves by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Lebanon amid Iran-linked missile attacks and proxy escalations—yet no new verified incidents in the past three weeks. Persistent Iran-Israel tensions and potential espionage plots could tip toward yes if fresh intelligence emerges, while ongoing diplomatic channels, such as failed Pakistan talks involving Iran's foreign minister last week, or de-escalation signals might solidify no, with two months remaining until resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely balanced view at 50.5% for no additional Iranian diplomat expulsion by June 30, driven by a recent wave of diplomatic actions—including Argentina's declaration of Iran's top envoy persona non grata on April 2, U.S. disclosures of December's quiet ouster of Iran's deputy UN ambassador over national security concerns, and earlier March moves by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Lebanon amid Iran-linked missile attacks and proxy escalations—yet no new verified incidents in the past three weeks. Persistent Iran-Israel tensions and potential espionage plots could tip toward yes if fresh intelligence emerges, while ongoing diplomatic channels, such as failed Pakistan talks involving Iran's foreign minister last week, or de-escalation signals might solidify no, with two months remaining until resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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