Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz vessel transits for the week of May 4 remains tightly contested between 50-74 ships (37.5%) and 25-49 (36.5%), reflecting volatile daily counts amid the ongoing US-Iran maritime crisis that has reduced traffic to 5% of normal since late February. Recent IMF Portwatch data through late April shows 7-day averages around 12 ships, with fluctuations including 24 transits on April 28 and 11 over April 29-30—mostly outbound Iran-linked tankers and occasional non-Iranian vessels like a Pakistani fuel tanker navigating the US blockade line. Uncertainty stems from selective IRGC permissions, mine threats, sky-high insurance premiums, and stalled ceasefire talks; separation could arise from US naval escorts enabling convoys, diplomatic pacts broadening access, or escalated seizures tightening flows further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?
50-74 38%
25-49 37%
<25 16%
75-99 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 may 2026
<25
16%
25-49
37%
50-74
38%
75-99
7%
100+
4%
50-74 38%
25-49 37%
<25 16%
75-99 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 may 2026
<25
$49 Vol.
16%
25-49
$43 Vol.
37%
50-74
$64 Vol.
38%
75-99
$43 Vol.
7%
100+
$43 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz vessel transits for the week of May 4 remains tightly contested between 50-74 ships (37.5%) and 25-49 (36.5%), reflecting volatile daily counts amid the ongoing US-Iran maritime crisis that has reduced traffic to 5% of normal since late February. Recent IMF Portwatch data through late April shows 7-day averages around 12 ships, with fluctuations including 24 transits on April 28 and 11 over April 29-30—mostly outbound Iran-linked tankers and occasional non-Iranian vessels like a Pakistani fuel tanker navigating the US blockade line. Uncertainty stems from selective IRGC permissions, mine threats, sky-high insurance premiums, and stalled ceasefire talks; separation could arise from US naval escorts enabling convoys, diplomatic pacts broadening access, or escalated seizures tightening flows further.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:35 PM ET
Volumen
$242Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz vessel transits for the week of May 4 remains tightly contested between 50-74 ships (37.5%) and 25-49 (36.5%), reflecting volatile daily counts amid the ongoing US-Iran maritime crisis that has reduced traffic to 5% of normal since late February. Recent IMF Portwatch data through late April shows 7-day averages around 12 ships, with fluctuations including 24 transits on April 28 and 11 over April 29-30—mostly outbound Iran-linked tankers and occasional non-Iranian vessels like a Pakistani fuel tanker navigating the US blockade line. Uncertainty stems from selective IRGC permissions, mine threats, sky-high insurance premiums, and stalled ceasefire talks; separation could arise from US naval escorts enabling convoys, diplomatic pacts broadening access, or escalated seizures tightening flows further.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$242Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz vessel transits for the week of May 4 remains tightly contested between 50-74 ships (37.5%) and 25-49 (36.5%), reflecting volatile daily counts amid the ongoing US-Iran maritime crisis that has reduced traffic to 5% of normal since late February. Recent IMF Portwatch data through late April shows 7-day averages around 12 ships, with fluctuations including 24 transits on April 28 and 11 over April 29-30—mostly outbound Iran-linked tankers and occasional non-Iranian vessels like a Pakistani fuel tanker navigating the US blockade line. Uncertainty stems from selective IRGC permissions, mine threats, sky-high insurance premiums, and stalled ceasefire talks; separation could arise from US naval escorts enabling convoys, diplomatic pacts broadening access, or escalated seizures tightening flows further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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