Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, anchored by the January 30 FDIC closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first of the year—stemming from concentrated commercial real estate (CRE) losses and impaired capital. Regional banks remain vulnerable amid a $875 billion CRE debt maturity wall this year, elevated office vacancies around 20%, and lenders curtailing extensions on delinquent loans, potentially spiking nonperforming assets. Despite solid industry balance sheets per S&P Global and minimal failures in 2025 (two total), Q1 earnings revealed rising loan-loss provisions. Key catalysts ahead include Federal Reserve rate decisions and April nonfarm payrolls data, which could exacerbate funding pressures if recession signals intensify.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$13,020 Vol.
$13,020 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$13,020 Vol.
$13,020 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, anchored by the January 30 FDIC closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first of the year—stemming from concentrated commercial real estate (CRE) losses and impaired capital. Regional banks remain vulnerable amid a $875 billion CRE debt maturity wall this year, elevated office vacancies around 20%, and lenders curtailing extensions on delinquent loans, potentially spiking nonperforming assets. Despite solid industry balance sheets per S&P Global and minimal failures in 2025 (two total), Q1 earnings revealed rising loan-loss provisions. Key catalysts ahead include Federal Reserve rate decisions and April nonfarm payrolls data, which could exacerbate funding pressures if recession signals intensify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volumen
$13,020Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, anchored by the January 30 FDIC closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first of the year—stemming from concentrated commercial real estate (CRE) losses and impaired capital. Regional banks remain vulnerable amid a $875 billion CRE debt maturity wall this year, elevated office vacancies around 20%, and lenders curtailing extensions on delinquent loans, potentially spiking nonperforming assets. Despite solid industry balance sheets per S&P Global and minimal failures in 2025 (two total), Q1 earnings revealed rising loan-loss provisions. Key catalysts ahead include Federal Reserve rate decisions and April nonfarm payrolls data, which could exacerbate funding pressures if recession signals intensify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volumen
$13,020Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by December 31, 2026, anchored by the January 30 FDIC closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the first of the year—stemming from concentrated commercial real estate (CRE) losses and impaired capital. Regional banks remain vulnerable amid a $875 billion CRE debt maturity wall this year, elevated office vacancies around 20%, and lenders curtailing extensions on delinquent loans, potentially spiking nonperforming assets. Despite solid industry balance sheets per S&P Global and minimal failures in 2025 (two total), Q1 earnings revealed rising loan-loss provisions. Key catalysts ahead include Federal Reserve rate decisions and April nonfarm payrolls data, which could exacerbate funding pressures if recession signals intensify.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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