Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.8% implied probability for no additional US bank failure by April 30, 2026, following the sole 2026 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30 amid robust sector fundamentals. Post-2023 regulatory reforms have bolstered liquidity coverage ratios and capital buffers, enabling banks to pass Federal Reserve stress tests decisively, while Q1 2026 earnings—like U.S. Bancorp's 15% EPS growth to $1.18—exceeded analyst estimates amid steady deposit growth and Treasury yields stabilizing near 4.2%. Low historical failure rates (two in 2025) reinforce this skin-in-the-game sentiment. Tail risks persist from commercial real estate defaults or abrupt liquidity shocks, though proximity to resolution limits catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$25,522 Vol.
$25,522 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sí
$25,522 Vol.
$25,522 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.8% implied probability for no additional US bank failure by April 30, 2026, following the sole 2026 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30 amid robust sector fundamentals. Post-2023 regulatory reforms have bolstered liquidity coverage ratios and capital buffers, enabling banks to pass Federal Reserve stress tests decisively, while Q1 2026 earnings—like U.S. Bancorp's 15% EPS growth to $1.18—exceeded analyst estimates amid steady deposit growth and Treasury yields stabilizing near 4.2%. Low historical failure rates (two in 2025) reinforce this skin-in-the-game sentiment. Tail risks persist from commercial real estate defaults or abrupt liquidity shocks, though proximity to resolution limits catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volumen
$25,522Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.8% implied probability for no additional US bank failure by April 30, 2026, following the sole 2026 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30 amid robust sector fundamentals. Post-2023 regulatory reforms have bolstered liquidity coverage ratios and capital buffers, enabling banks to pass Federal Reserve stress tests decisively, while Q1 2026 earnings—like U.S. Bancorp's 15% EPS growth to $1.18—exceeded analyst estimates amid steady deposit growth and Treasury yields stabilizing near 4.2%. Low historical failure rates (two in 2025) reinforce this skin-in-the-game sentiment. Tail risks persist from commercial real estate defaults or abrupt liquidity shocks, though proximity to resolution limits catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volumen
$25,522Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.8% implied probability for no additional US bank failure by April 30, 2026, following the sole 2026 closure of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust on January 30 amid robust sector fundamentals. Post-2023 regulatory reforms have bolstered liquidity coverage ratios and capital buffers, enabling banks to pass Federal Reserve stress tests decisively, while Q1 2026 earnings—like U.S. Bancorp's 15% EPS growth to $1.18—exceeded analyst estimates amid steady deposit growth and Treasury yields stabilizing near 4.2%. Low historical failure rates (two in 2025) reinforce this skin-in-the-game sentiment. Tail risks persist from commercial real estate defaults or abrupt liquidity shocks, though proximity to resolution limits catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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