Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Banco de la República's July 2026 rate decision, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 49% across a 25 basis point decrease (slight 49.5% edge), increase, 50+ bps moves, no change, and larger hikes—highlighting a closely contested market swayed by dueling inflation persistence and growth weakness. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 5.56% year-over-year, well above the 3% target and exceeding forecasts, fueling hike expectations amid the ongoing tightening cycle (policy rate at 11.25% post-100 bps March increase). Yet, February economic activity grew just 1.6% annually, unemployment hit 10.9% in January, and government tensions—including Finance Minister withdrawal—press for easing to support 2.8% 2026 GDP forecasts. Today's April 30 decision, polled for a 50 bps hike to 11.75%, plus May-June inflation and activity data, will be pivotal swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCentral Bank of Colombia decision in July?
Central Bank of Colombia decision in July?
50+ bps decrease 49%
25 bps decrease 49%
25 bps increase 49%
50+ bps increase 49%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
49%
25 bps decrease
49%
No change
49%
25 bps increase
49%
50+ bps increase
49%
50+ bps decrease 49%
25 bps decrease 49%
25 bps increase 49%
50+ bps increase 49%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 jul 2026
50+ bps decrease
$0 Vol.
49%
25 bps decrease
$0 Vol.
49%
No change
$0 Vol.
49%
25 bps increase
$0 Vol.
49%
50+ bps increase
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Banco de la República's July 2026 rate decision, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 49% across a 25 basis point decrease (slight 49.5% edge), increase, 50+ bps moves, no change, and larger hikes—highlighting a closely contested market swayed by dueling inflation persistence and growth weakness. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 5.56% year-over-year, well above the 3% target and exceeding forecasts, fueling hike expectations amid the ongoing tightening cycle (policy rate at 11.25% post-100 bps March increase). Yet, February economic activity grew just 1.6% annually, unemployment hit 10.9% in January, and government tensions—including Finance Minister withdrawal—press for easing to support 2.8% 2026 GDP forecasts. Today's April 30 decision, polled for a 50 bps hike to 11.75%, plus May-June inflation and activity data, will be pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Banco de la República's July 2026 rate decision, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 49% across a 25 basis point decrease (slight 49.5% edge), increase, 50+ bps moves, no change, and larger hikes—highlighting a closely contested market swayed by dueling inflation persistence and growth weakness. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 5.56% year-over-year, well above the 3% target and exceeding forecasts, fueling hike expectations amid the ongoing tightening cycle (policy rate at 11.25% post-100 bps March increase). Yet, February economic activity grew just 1.6% annually, unemployment hit 10.9% in January, and government tensions—including Finance Minister withdrawal—press for easing to support 2.8% 2026 GDP forecasts. Today's April 30 decision, polled for a 50 bps hike to 11.75%, plus May-June inflation and activity data, will be pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 31, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty for Banco de la República's July 2026 rate decision, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 49% across a 25 basis point decrease (slight 49.5% edge), increase, 50+ bps moves, no change, and larger hikes—highlighting a closely contested market swayed by dueling inflation persistence and growth weakness. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 5.56% year-over-year, well above the 3% target and exceeding forecasts, fueling hike expectations amid the ongoing tightening cycle (policy rate at 11.25% post-100 bps March increase). Yet, February economic activity grew just 1.6% annually, unemployment hit 10.9% in January, and government tensions—including Finance Minister withdrawal—press for easing to support 2.8% 2026 GDP forecasts. Today's April 30 decision, polled for a 50 bps hike to 11.75%, plus May-June inflation and activity data, will be pivotal swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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