**Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution in 2026 stems primarily from the organization's continued operational cohesion among core members despite the UAE's May 1 exit.** Remaining producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait have held regular OPEC+ meetings through June, reaffirming production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day and commitments to market stability amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This ongoing coordination, backed by real capital at risk in prediction markets, reflects historical resilience to member departures—such as Qatar in 2019—and the cartel's entrenched role in influencing global oil supply dynamics and benchmark pricing. Market-implied odds above 90% price in low near-term probability of formal dissolution. Realistic challenges include accelerated exits by additional Gulf producers or a breakdown in Saudi-led consensus that could erode the group's influence further, though no such developments have materialized as of mid-June.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution in 2026 stems primarily from the organization's continued operational cohesion among core members despite the UAE's May 1 exit.** Remaining producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait have held regular OPEC+ meetings through June, reaffirming production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day and commitments to market stability amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This ongoing coordination, backed by real capital at risk in prediction markets, reflects historical resilience to member departures—such as Qatar in 2019—and the cartel's entrenched role in influencing global oil supply dynamics and benchmark pricing. Market-implied odds above 90% price in low near-term probability of formal dissolution. Realistic challenges include accelerated exits by additional Gulf producers or a breakdown in Saudi-led consensus that could erode the group's influence further, though no such developments have materialized as of mid-June.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$29,586Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution in 2026 stems primarily from the organization's continued operational cohesion among core members despite the UAE's May 1 exit.** Remaining producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait have held regular OPEC+ meetings through June, reaffirming production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day and commitments to market stability amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This ongoing coordination, backed by real capital at risk in prediction markets, reflects historical resilience to member departures—such as Qatar in 2019—and the cartel's entrenched role in influencing global oil supply dynamics and benchmark pricing. Market-implied odds above 90% price in low near-term probability of formal dissolution. Realistic challenges include accelerated exits by additional Gulf producers or a breakdown in Saudi-led consensus that could erode the group's influence further, though no such developments have materialized as of mid-June.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$29,586Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong trader consensus against OPEC dissolution in 2026 stems primarily from the organization's continued operational cohesion among core members despite the UAE's May 1 exit.** Remaining producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kuwait have held regular OPEC+ meetings through June, reaffirming production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day and commitments to market stability amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This ongoing coordination, backed by real capital at risk in prediction markets, reflects historical resilience to member departures—such as Qatar in 2019—and the cartel's entrenched role in influencing global oil supply dynamics and benchmark pricing. Market-implied odds above 90% price in low near-term probability of formal dissolution. Realistic challenges include accelerated exits by additional Gulf producers or a breakdown in Saudi-led consensus that could erode the group's influence further, though no such developments have materialized as of mid-June.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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