Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock exit announcement on April 28—effective May 1—marking the fourth producer departure in recent years and the largest by output capacity. This blow to cohesion stems from UAE's push for quota flexibility amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and volatile oil supply dynamics, yet key members including Russia, Algeria, and Kazakhstan swiftly reaffirmed commitment, underscoring Saudi-led dominance and the cartel's mutual interest in coordinating production cuts to support Brent crude above $80 per barrel. Historical precedents like Angola's 2024 exit show OPEC+ adapting via output adjustments, as in the April 5 virtual meeting's modest 206,000 barrels per day quota hike. Watch for June's next ministerial monitoring committee review amid potential further defections or geopolitical supply shocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
NUEVO
$13,036 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
NUEVO
$13,036 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock exit announcement on April 28—effective May 1—marking the fourth producer departure in recent years and the largest by output capacity. This blow to cohesion stems from UAE's push for quota flexibility amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and volatile oil supply dynamics, yet key members including Russia, Algeria, and Kazakhstan swiftly reaffirmed commitment, underscoring Saudi-led dominance and the cartel's mutual interest in coordinating production cuts to support Brent crude above $80 per barrel. Historical precedents like Angola's 2024 exit show OPEC+ adapting via output adjustments, as in the April 5 virtual meeting's modest 206,000 barrels per day quota hike. Watch for June's next ministerial monitoring committee review amid potential further defections or geopolitical supply shocks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$13,036Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock exit announcement on April 28—effective May 1—marking the fourth producer departure in recent years and the largest by output capacity. This blow to cohesion stems from UAE's push for quota flexibility amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and volatile oil supply dynamics, yet key members including Russia, Algeria, and Kazakhstan swiftly reaffirmed commitment, underscoring Saudi-led dominance and the cartel's mutual interest in coordinating production cuts to support Brent crude above $80 per barrel. Historical precedents like Angola's 2024 exit show OPEC+ adapting via output adjustments, as in the April 5 virtual meeting's modest 206,000 barrels per day quota hike. Watch for June's next ministerial monitoring committee review amid potential further defections or geopolitical supply shocks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$13,036Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolving in 2026, reflecting resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock exit announcement on April 28—effective May 1—marking the fourth producer departure in recent years and the largest by output capacity. This blow to cohesion stems from UAE's push for quota flexibility amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and volatile oil supply dynamics, yet key members including Russia, Algeria, and Kazakhstan swiftly reaffirmed commitment, underscoring Saudi-led dominance and the cartel's mutual interest in coordinating production cuts to support Brent crude above $80 per barrel. Historical precedents like Angola's 2024 exit show OPEC+ adapting via output adjustments, as in the April 5 virtual meeting's modest 206,000 barrels per day quota hike. Watch for June's next ministerial monitoring committee review amid potential further defections or geopolitical supply shocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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