The Bank of Russia’s ongoing easing cycle, with the key rate already lowered to 14.5% after the April 50-basis-point cut, underpins the 81% market-implied probability of another decrease in July. Slowing inflation—now just above 5%—combined with President Putin’s June 10–11 comments endorsing further reductions and domestic demand aligning closer to supply capacity, has reinforced trader expectations for continued monetary loosening at the June 19 and subsequent July meetings. The central bank’s baseline forecast of a 14.0–14.5% average key rate for 2026 reflects this path, though persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal policy and external conditions could still prompt a hold if data surprises to the upside before July 24.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBank of Russia decision in July?
Decrease 81%
No Change 15%
Increase 3.0%
Decrease
81%
No Change
15%
Increase
3%
Decrease 81%
No Change 15%
Increase 3.0%
Decrease
81%
No Change
15%
Increase
3%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Apr 24, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Russia’s ongoing easing cycle, with the key rate already lowered to 14.5% after the April 50-basis-point cut, underpins the 81% market-implied probability of another decrease in July. Slowing inflation—now just above 5%—combined with President Putin’s June 10–11 comments endorsing further reductions and domestic demand aligning closer to supply capacity, has reinforced trader expectations for continued monetary loosening at the June 19 and subsequent July meetings. The central bank’s baseline forecast of a 14.0–14.5% average key rate for 2026 reflects this path, though persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal policy and external conditions could still prompt a hold if data surprises to the upside before July 24.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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