The Bank of Russia’s ongoing easing cycle, with the key rate already lowered to 14.5% after the April 50-basis-point cut, underpins the 81% market-implied probability of another decrease in July. Slowing inflation—now just above 5%—combined with President Putin’s June 10–11 comments endorsing further reductions and domestic demand aligning closer to supply capacity, has reinforced trader expectations for continued monetary loosening at the June 19 and subsequent July meetings. The central bank’s baseline forecast of a 14.0–14.5% average key rate for 2026 reflects this path, though persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal policy and external conditions could still prompt a hold if data surprises to the upside before July 24.