Elevated May 2026 CPI readings at 4.2% year-over-year, alongside core measures near 2.9% and a stable unemployment rate around 4.3-4.5%, have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50-3.75% range since early 2026 and futures markets pricing limited easing this year, the 67.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause reflects broad consensus that restrictive monetary policy will persist amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. Geopolitical pressures on commodities have further tilted sentiment toward holds, though later-quarter data releases could still shift the modest 25% odds on a September cut.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 67%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 15%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
67%
Pause–Pause–Cut
27%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
14%
Pause–Pause–Pause 67%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 15%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 sep 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$419 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$307 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,038 Vol.
67%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$328 Vol.
27%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 Vol.
1%
Other
$287 Vol.
14%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI readings at 4.2% year-over-year, alongside core measures near 2.9% and a stable unemployment rate around 4.3-4.5%, have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50-3.75% range since early 2026 and futures markets pricing limited easing this year, the 67.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause reflects broad consensus that restrictive monetary policy will persist amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. Geopolitical pressures on commodities have further tilted sentiment toward holds, though later-quarter data releases could still shift the modest 25% odds on a September cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$3,696Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI readings at 4.2% year-over-year, alongside core measures near 2.9% and a stable unemployment rate around 4.3-4.5%, have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50-3.75% range since early 2026 and futures markets pricing limited easing this year, the 67.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause reflects broad consensus that restrictive monetary policy will persist amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. Geopolitical pressures on commodities have further tilted sentiment toward holds, though later-quarter data releases could still shift the modest 25% odds on a September cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$3,696Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated May 2026 CPI readings at 4.2% year-over-year, alongside core measures near 2.9% and a stable unemployment rate around 4.3-4.5%, have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate holding in the 3.50-3.75% range since early 2026 and futures markets pricing limited easing this year, the 67.5% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause reflects broad consensus that restrictive monetary policy will persist amid sticky inflation and resilient growth. Geopolitical pressures on commodities have further tilted sentiment toward holds, though later-quarter data releases could still shift the modest 25% odds on a September cut.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes