Ken Paxton attacks Cornyn for vacationing instead of advancing Trump’s agenda in a new ad, escalating tensions ahead of runoff

John Cornyn rises to 42%3%

Paxton’s criticism and Cornyn’s fundraising announcement kept the race competitive, with slight market recovery for Cornyn.

Cornyn campaign releases ad attacking Ken Paxton’s office controversies, intensifying the runoff battle

John Cornyn plunges to 39%17%

Negative campaigning highlighted vulnerabilities, leading to a market correction.

Donald Trump announces he will soon endorse in the runoff between Cornyn and Paxton, adding national attention to the race

John Cornyn plunges to 56%23%

Trump’s delayed endorsement created uncertainty, causing a market pullback.

Texas Republican primary held; Paxton and Cornyn advance to runoff after neither secures 50%, confirming Paxton’s strong position but also signaling a competitive race ahead[].

Ken Paxton plunges to 21%62%

Texas Republican primary held; Paxton and Cornyn advance to runoff after neither secures 50%, confirming Paxton’s strong position but also signaling a competitive race ahead[].

Texas Republican primary results: Cornyn leads with 42%, Paxton close behind, forcing a runoff

John Cornyn surges to 79%63%

Cornyn’s strong primary showing sharply increased market confidence in his eventual nomination.

Cornyn’s support hits a low of 16% amid rising attacks and Paxton’s aggressive campaign tactics

John Cornyn plunges to 16%18%

Paxton’s campaign linked Cornyn to the “DC establishment,” eroding confidence in Cornyn’s primary prospects.

Ken Paxton launches Texas-First Victory Tour for his Senate campaign, rallying grassroots conservatives and emphasizing his record defending Texas sovereignty, boosting campaign

Ken Paxton surges to 83%33%

Ken Paxton launches Texas-First Victory Tour for his Senate campaign, rallying grassroots conservatives and emphasizing his record defending Texas sovereignty, boosting campaign momentum ahead of the March primary[].

Polling and reports indicate Hunt's support wanes as Cornyn narrows the gap with Paxton, and Hunt struggles to expand beyond his Houston base, leading to a sharp decline in market

Wesley Hunt drops to 4%9%

Polling and reports indicate Hunt's support wanes as Cornyn narrows the gap with Paxton, and Hunt struggles to expand beyond his Houston base, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence

Hunt's campaign launches a second statewide TV ad portraying him as the strongest Trump ally, attempting to regain momentum and appeal to the conservative base amid a tightening

Wesley Hunt jumps to 19%7%

Hunt's campaign launches a second statewide TV ad portraying him as the strongest Trump ally, attempting to regain momentum and appeal to the conservative base amid a tightening race

Democrat Colin Allred drops out of the Senate race, aiming to avoid a bruising primary and unify Democrats, potentially improving Paxton’s general election prospects by reducing

Ken Paxton surges to 59%16%

Democrat Colin Allred drops out of the Senate race, aiming to avoid a bruising primary and unify Democrats, potentially improving Paxton’s general election prospects by reducing Democratic primary uncertainty[].

Wesley Hunt files official paperwork for the Senate race, solidifying his candidacy amid growing GOP leadership pressure to drop out to avoid splitting the vote, but Hunt doubles

Wesley Hunt jumps to 15%8%

Wesley Hunt files official paperwork for the Senate race, solidifying his candidacy amid growing GOP leadership pressure to drop out to avoid splitting the vote, but Hunt doubles down on his insurgent campaign strategy

Reports emerge of GOP leaders publicly urging Hunt to exit the race, warning his continued campaign risks costly runoff and jeopardizes the party's Senate majority, increasing

Wesley Hunt dips to 12%3%

Reports emerge of GOP leaders publicly urging Hunt to exit the race, warning his continued campaign risks costly runoff and jeopardizes the party's Senate majority, increasing uncertainty about his viability

Report reveals Cornyn’s substantial fundraising lead over Paxton and Hunt, with $50 million spent by satellite groups supporting him

John Cornyn rises to 34%2%

Strong fundraising signaled campaign strength, stabilizing Cornyn’s market position.

Multiple reports highlight Hunt's campaign launch emphasizing his military record and conservative credentials, while GOP establishment and Cornyn's camp criticize his entry as a

Wesley Hunt dips to 7%3%

Multiple reports highlight Hunt's campaign launch emphasizing his military record and conservative credentials, while GOP establishment and Cornyn's camp criticize his entry as a spoiler, signaling early resistance from party leadership

Rep. Wesley Hunt officially announces his U.S.

Wesley Hunt plunges to 10%40%

Senate bid in Texas, joining incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton in a heated GOP primary, shaking up the race and initially boosting his profile statewide

U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt enters the Senate race, increasing the likelihood of a runoff and complicating Cornyn’s path

John Cornyn jumps to 32%11%

Hunt’s entry fragmented the anti-Paxton vote, briefly boosting Cornyn’s chances as the race became a three-way contest.

Media organizations file to unseal Paxton’s divorce records, arguing public interest due to Paxton’s elected status and ongoing Senate campaign, increasing scrutiny on Paxton’s

Ken Paxton drops to 48%11%

Media organizations file to unseal Paxton’s divorce records, arguing public interest due to Paxton’s elected status and ongoing Senate campaign, increasing scrutiny on Paxton’s personal and financial conduct[].

U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, former Paxton aide turned critic, announces run for Texas Attorney General, the seat Paxton vacates to run for Senate, signaling a competitive GOP primary

Ken Paxton drops to 59%6%

U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, former Paxton aide turned critic, announces run for Texas Attorney General, the seat Paxton vacates to run for Senate, signaling a competitive GOP primary environment and internal party challenges[].

Texas Alliance for Life Fed PAC endorses John Cornyn for re-election, highlighting his pro-life record and judicial confirmations

John Cornyn dips to 32%1%

This endorsement reinforced Cornyn’s conservative credentials but had limited immediate market impact.

Court seals Paxton’s divorce records after initial filing, limiting public access to details and temporarily containing fallout from the scandal[].

Ken Paxton drops to 65%9%

Court seals Paxton’s divorce records after initial filing, limiting public access to details and temporarily containing fallout from the scandal[].

Angela Paxton, Ken Paxton’s wife and Texas State Senator, files for divorce citing adultery and separation since June 2024, introducing personal scandal that could impact Paxton’s

Ken Paxton jumps to 74%13%

Angela Paxton, Ken Paxton’s wife and Texas State Senator, files for divorce citing adultery and separation since June 2024, introducing personal scandal that could impact Paxton’s campaign[].

Democrat Colin Allred enters the U.S.

Ken Paxton jumps to 61%11%

Senate race, positioning himself against either Cornyn or Paxton, increasing pressure on the Republican primary and highlighting Paxton as a main challenger[].

Ken Paxton announces U.S. Senate candidacy on Fox News, challenging incumbent John Cornyn, emphasizing conservative values and support for Trump, marking the start of his primary

Ken Paxton jumps to 57%7%

Ken Paxton announces U.S. Senate candidacy on Fox News, challenging incumbent John Cornyn, emphasizing conservative values and support for Trump, marking the start of his primary campaign[].

John Cornyn officially kicks off his re-election campaign as Ken Paxton weighs a primary challenge, signaling the start of a competitive race

John Cornyn plunges to 34%16%

Cornyn’s early campaign launch was met with skepticism due to Paxton’s potential challenge, causing initial