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Política·Primarias

IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

icon for IN-04 Republican Primary Winner
Política·Primarias

IN-04 Republican Primary Winner

Jim Baird 90.1%

Craig Haggard 11.5%

John Piper 1.5%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Jim Baird 90.1%

Craig Haggard 11.5%

John Piper 1.5%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Jim Baird

$1,775 Vol.

90%

Craig Haggard

$965 Vol.

18%

John Piper

$1,372 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird's 92% trader consensus as the IN-04 Republican primary winner on May 5 reflects his strong incumbency advantage since 2019 in the safely Republican district (R+15 Cook PVI), reinforced by President Trump's "complete and total" endorsement. State Rep. Craig Haggard trails at 7% despite backing from Attorney General Todd Rokita and recent conservative pushback against Baird's age (80), record on the Dignidad Act amnesty bill, and $200,000 in late April ad spending by Homeland PAC opposing the incumbent. With no public polls showing an upset and historical low primary defeat rates for House incumbents, traders anticipate continuity barring a late scandal, health issue for Baird, or unexpected anti-incumbent turnout surge in the final days.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$4,112
Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Baird's 92% trader consensus as the IN-04 Republican primary winner on May 5 reflects his strong incumbency advantage since 2019 in the safely Republican district (R+15 Cook PVI), reinforced by President Trump's "complete and total" endorsement. State Rep. Craig Haggard trails at 7% despite backing from Attorney General Todd Rokita and recent conservative pushback against Baird's age (80), record on the Dignidad Act amnesty bill, and $200,000 in late April ad spending by Homeland PAC opposing the incumbent. With no public polls showing an upset and historical low primary defeat rates for House incumbents, traders anticipate continuity barring a late scandal, health issue for Baird, or unexpected anti-incumbent turnout surge in the final days.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$4,112
Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Jim Baird" con 90%, seguido de "Craig Haggard" con 18%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 90¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 90% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 20, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" es "Jim Baird" con 90%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 90% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Craig Haggard" con 18%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "IN-04 Republican Primary Winner" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.