Recent generic ballot polls showing Democrats ahead by nearly 6 points for the first time this cycle, coupled with President Trump's approval rating dipping to 34%—among the lowest for midterm presidents—have solidified trader consensus for substantial Republican House losses from their current 217 seats. Record retirements, with 36 Republicans versus 20 Democrats not seeking re-election including April announcements like Rep. Webster's (R-FL), open vulnerable battlegrounds, where new Cook polling gives Democrats a 50-44 edge. Historical midterm penalties for the president's party keep odds clustered tightly below 195 seats (implied minority) at around 60% probability versus slim majority scenarios; primary results in states like California and Texas, economic indicators, or approval shifts could tip the balance toward separation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
$212,593 Vol.
$212,593 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Menos de 190
33%
190-194
23%
195-199
18%
200-204
14%
205-209
10%
210-214
7%
215-219
11%
220-224
11%
225-229
11%
230+
6%
$212,593 Vol.
$212,593 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Menos de 190
$10,958 Vol.
33%
190-194
$5,998 Vol.
23%
195-199
$27,051 Vol.
18%
200-204
$21,429 Vol.
14%
205-209
$34,042 Vol.
10%
210-214
$11,814 Vol.
7%
215-219
$5,974 Vol.
11%
220-224
$51,043 Vol.
11%
225-229
$19,576 Vol.
11%
230+
$24,708 Vol.
6%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent generic ballot polls showing Democrats ahead by nearly 6 points for the first time this cycle, coupled with President Trump's approval rating dipping to 34%—among the lowest for midterm presidents—have solidified trader consensus for substantial Republican House losses from their current 217 seats. Record retirements, with 36 Republicans versus 20 Democrats not seeking re-election including April announcements like Rep. Webster's (R-FL), open vulnerable battlegrounds, where new Cook polling gives Democrats a 50-44 edge. Historical midterm penalties for the president's party keep odds clustered tightly below 195 seats (implied minority) at around 60% probability versus slim majority scenarios; primary results in states like California and Texas, economic indicators, or approval shifts could tip the balance toward separation.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volumen
$212,593Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Recent generic ballot polls showing Democrats ahead by nearly 6 points for the first time this cycle, coupled with President Trump's approval rating dipping to 34%—among the lowest for midterm presidents—have solidified trader consensus for substantial Republican House losses from their current 217 seats. Record retirements, with 36 Republicans versus 20 Democrats not seeking re-election including April announcements like Rep. Webster's (R-FL), open vulnerable battlegrounds, where new Cook polling gives Democrats a 50-44 edge. Historical midterm penalties for the president's party keep odds clustered tightly below 195 seats (implied minority) at around 60% probability versus slim majority scenarios; primary results in states like California and Texas, economic indicators, or approval shifts could tip the balance toward separation.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$212,593Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent generic ballot polls showing Democrats ahead by nearly 6 points for the first time this cycle, coupled with President Trump's approval rating dipping to 34%—among the lowest for midterm presidents—have solidified trader consensus for substantial Republican House losses from their current 217 seats. Record retirements, with 36 Republicans versus 20 Democrats not seeking re-election including April announcements like Rep. Webster's (R-FL), open vulnerable battlegrounds, where new Cook polling gives Democrats a 50-44 edge. Historical midterm penalties for the president's party keep odds clustered tightly below 195 seats (implied minority) at around 60% probability versus slim majority scenarios; primary results in states like California and Texas, economic indicators, or approval shifts could tip the balance toward separation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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