Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding position in the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus and consistent polling leads of 45–47 percent against main challengers. Recent May 2026 surveys from Paraná Pesquisas and Vox Brasil show him ahead of Fernando Haddad (PT) by double digits in first-round scenarios, with runoff simulations widening the gap further amid Tarcísio’s focus on re-election rather than a presidential bid. His state-level approval ratings near 64 percent, tied to infrastructure and economic management, contribute to lower rejection rates compared to opposition figures. Kim Kataguiri (Missão) registers single-digit polling support but captures modest market share amid potential right-wing fragmentation, while Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain marginal. Candidate registration deadlines and any late coalition shifts could still influence final positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTarcísio de Freitas 83%
Kim Kataguiri 11.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.7%
Márcio França <1%
$76,202 Vol.
$76,202 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Kim Kataguiri
11%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Márcio França
<1%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Kim Kataguiri 11.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.7%
Márcio França <1%
$76,202 Vol.
$76,202 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$24,681 Vol.
83%
Kim Kataguiri
$14,495 Vol.
11%
Fernando Haddad
$22,688 Vol.
4%
Márcio França
$6,467 Vol.
<1%
Erika Hilton
$7,871 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding position in the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus and consistent polling leads of 45–47 percent against main challengers. Recent May 2026 surveys from Paraná Pesquisas and Vox Brasil show him ahead of Fernando Haddad (PT) by double digits in first-round scenarios, with runoff simulations widening the gap further amid Tarcísio’s focus on re-election rather than a presidential bid. His state-level approval ratings near 64 percent, tied to infrastructure and economic management, contribute to lower rejection rates compared to opposition figures. Kim Kataguiri (Missão) registers single-digit polling support but captures modest market share amid potential right-wing fragmentation, while Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain marginal. Candidate registration deadlines and any late coalition shifts could still influence final positioning.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volumen
$76,202Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding position in the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus and consistent polling leads of 45–47 percent against main challengers. Recent May 2026 surveys from Paraná Pesquisas and Vox Brasil show him ahead of Fernando Haddad (PT) by double digits in first-round scenarios, with runoff simulations widening the gap further amid Tarcísio’s focus on re-election rather than a presidential bid. His state-level approval ratings near 64 percent, tied to infrastructure and economic management, contribute to lower rejection rates compared to opposition figures. Kim Kataguiri (Missão) registers single-digit polling support but captures modest market share amid potential right-wing fragmentation, while Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain marginal. Candidate registration deadlines and any late coalition shifts could still influence final positioning.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$76,202Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a commanding position in the October 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus and consistent polling leads of 45–47 percent against main challengers. Recent May 2026 surveys from Paraná Pesquisas and Vox Brasil show him ahead of Fernando Haddad (PT) by double digits in first-round scenarios, with runoff simulations widening the gap further amid Tarcísio’s focus on re-election rather than a presidential bid. His state-level approval ratings near 64 percent, tied to infrastructure and economic management, contribute to lower rejection rates compared to opposition figures. Kim Kataguiri (Missão) registers single-digit polling support but captures modest market share amid potential right-wing fragmentation, while Márcio França and Erika Hilton remain marginal. Candidate registration deadlines and any late coalition shifts could still influence final positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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