Recent April 2026 polls from AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Quaest, and others show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 37–47%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 32–40%, far below the 50% threshold needed for an outright win on October 4. A fragmented field—including Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 3–6%, Romeu Zema (Novo) at 3–4%, and Damares Alves (Republicanos)—splits the opposition vote, while undecided or blank responses remain high at 9–19%. The narrowing Lula-Bolsonaro gap in late-April surveys like AtlasIntel's (46.6% vs. 39.7%) reinforces trader consensus for a runoff, consistent with Brazil's electoral history where no candidate has won outright since 2006. Upcoming candidate consolidations or scandals could shift dynamics, but current evidence points to a second round.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$61,907 Vol.
$61,907 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Sí
$61,907 Vol.
$61,907 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent April 2026 polls from AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Quaest, and others show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 37–47%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 32–40%, far below the 50% threshold needed for an outright win on October 4. A fragmented field—including Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 3–6%, Romeu Zema (Novo) at 3–4%, and Damares Alves (Republicanos)—splits the opposition vote, while undecided or blank responses remain high at 9–19%. The narrowing Lula-Bolsonaro gap in late-April surveys like AtlasIntel's (46.6% vs. 39.7%) reinforces trader consensus for a runoff, consistent with Brazil's electoral history where no candidate has won outright since 2006. Upcoming candidate consolidations or scandals could shift dynamics, but current evidence points to a second round.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$61,907Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent April 2026 polls from AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Quaest, and others show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 37–47%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 32–40%, far below the 50% threshold needed for an outright win on October 4. A fragmented field—including Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 3–6%, Romeu Zema (Novo) at 3–4%, and Damares Alves (Republicanos)—splits the opposition vote, while undecided or blank responses remain high at 9–19%. The narrowing Lula-Bolsonaro gap in late-April surveys like AtlasIntel's (46.6% vs. 39.7%) reinforces trader consensus for a runoff, consistent with Brazil's electoral history where no candidate has won outright since 2006. Upcoming candidate consolidations or scandals could shift dynamics, but current evidence points to a second round.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$61,907Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent April 2026 polls from AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Quaest, and others show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round voting intentions at 37–47%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely at 32–40%, far below the 50% threshold needed for an outright win on October 4. A fragmented field—including Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 3–6%, Romeu Zema (Novo) at 3–4%, and Damares Alves (Republicanos)—splits the opposition vote, while undecided or blank responses remain high at 9–19%. The narrowing Lula-Bolsonaro gap in late-April surveys like AtlasIntel's (46.6% vs. 39.7%) reinforces trader consensus for a runoff, consistent with Brazil's electoral history where no candidate has won outright since 2006. Upcoming candidate consolidations or scandals could shift dynamics, but current evidence points to a second round.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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