Recent May 2026 IPCA data at 4.72% year-over-year, above consensus and the prior 4.39% print, reflects renewed price pressures from food, housing, and energy amid geopolitical supply disruptions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 5.00-5.99% range, indicating trader focus on whether persistent services inflation, fiscal stimulus, and a rebounding economy will keep the full-year rate above the Banco Central do Brasil’s 3.00% target plus tolerance band. Key swing factors include further commodity shocks, BRL movements, labor-market tightness, and the Selic rate path, with upcoming Copom decisions and June data releases likely to sharpen the distribution between the two leading buckets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado5,00-5,49% 24.2%
5,50-5,99% 24.0%
6,00-6,49% 12.3%
7,00%+ 8.3%
$65,304 Vol.
$65,304 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<3,00%
1%
3,00-3,49%
1%
3,50-3,99%
3%
4,00-4,49 %
2%
4,50-4,99%
7%
5,00-5,49%
24%
5,50-5,99%
24%
6,00-6,49%
19%
6,50-6,99%
8%
7,00%+
8%
5,00-5,49% 24.2%
5,50-5,99% 24.0%
6,00-6,49% 12.3%
7,00%+ 8.3%
$65,304 Vol.
$65,304 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<3,00%
$4,644 Vol.
1%
3,00-3,49%
$4,436 Vol.
1%
3,50-3,99%
$11,770 Vol.
3%
4,00-4,49 %
$8,746 Vol.
2%
4,50-4,99%
$8,474 Vol.
7%
5,00-5,49%
$7,053 Vol.
24%
5,50-5,99%
$5,949 Vol.
24%
6,00-6,49%
$5,051 Vol.
19%
6,50-6,99%
$5,366 Vol.
8%
7,00%+
$3,815 Vol.
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent May 2026 IPCA data at 4.72% year-over-year, above consensus and the prior 4.39% print, reflects renewed price pressures from food, housing, and energy amid geopolitical supply disruptions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 5.00-5.99% range, indicating trader focus on whether persistent services inflation, fiscal stimulus, and a rebounding economy will keep the full-year rate above the Banco Central do Brasil’s 3.00% target plus tolerance band. Key swing factors include further commodity shocks, BRL movements, labor-market tightness, and the Selic rate path, with upcoming Copom decisions and June data releases likely to sharpen the distribution between the two leading buckets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volumen
$65,304Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent May 2026 IPCA data at 4.72% year-over-year, above consensus and the prior 4.39% print, reflects renewed price pressures from food, housing, and energy amid geopolitical supply disruptions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 5.00-5.99% range, indicating trader focus on whether persistent services inflation, fiscal stimulus, and a rebounding economy will keep the full-year rate above the Banco Central do Brasil’s 3.00% target plus tolerance band. Key swing factors include further commodity shocks, BRL movements, labor-market tightness, and the Selic rate path, with upcoming Copom decisions and June data releases likely to sharpen the distribution between the two leading buckets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$65,304Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent May 2026 IPCA data at 4.72% year-over-year, above consensus and the prior 4.39% print, reflects renewed price pressures from food, housing, and energy amid geopolitical supply disruptions. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 5.00-5.99% range, indicating trader focus on whether persistent services inflation, fiscal stimulus, and a rebounding economy will keep the full-year rate above the Banco Central do Brasil’s 3.00% target plus tolerance band. Key swing factors include further commodity shocks, BRL movements, labor-market tightness, and the Selic rate path, with upcoming Copom decisions and June data releases likely to sharpen the distribution between the two leading buckets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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