Recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg polling from April 22-27 shows Renan Santos surging to 5.3% in third place for the October 4 first round, ahead of governors Romeu Zema (3.1%, Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (3.3%, PSD), fueling trader bets on his momentum as an anti-establishment MBL founder challenging the fragmented center-right field behind leaders Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Zema holds a slim 39% implied probability edge over Santos at 33.5%, with Caiado at 19.5%, reflecting prior polls favoring governors' name recognition amid volatility, but Renan's "Milei brasileiro" appeal and social media buzz narrow the gap. Upcoming polls, debates, or right-wing consolidations could separate frontrunners in this tight contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRomeu Zema 39%
Renan Santos 34%
Ronaldo Caiado 20%
Flávio Bolsonaro 6.0%
$270,316 Vol.
$270,316 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Romeu Zema
39%
Renan Santos
34%
Ronaldo Caiado
20%
Flávio Bolsonaro
6%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
2%
Camilo Santana
1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Romeu Zema 39%
Renan Santos 34%
Ronaldo Caiado 20%
Flávio Bolsonaro 6.0%
$270,316 Vol.
$270,316 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Romeu Zema
$8,223 Vol.
39%
Renan Santos
$63,329 Vol.
34%
Ronaldo Caiado
$15,820 Vol.
20%
Flávio Bolsonaro
$5,677 Vol.
6%
Fernando Haddad
$14,287 Vol.
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$4,321 Vol.
2%
Camilo Santana
$5,352 Vol.
1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$39,580 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$3,127 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$4,014 Vol.
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,329 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$92,956 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$3,636 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$4,243 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$2,423 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg polling from April 22-27 shows Renan Santos surging to 5.3% in third place for the October 4 first round, ahead of governors Romeu Zema (3.1%, Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (3.3%, PSD), fueling trader bets on his momentum as an anti-establishment MBL founder challenging the fragmented center-right field behind leaders Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Zema holds a slim 39% implied probability edge over Santos at 33.5%, with Caiado at 19.5%, reflecting prior polls favoring governors' name recognition amid volatility, but Renan's "Milei brasileiro" appeal and social media buzz narrow the gap. Upcoming polls, debates, or right-wing consolidations could separate frontrunners in this tight contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Volumen
$270,316Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg polling from April 22-27 shows Renan Santos surging to 5.3% in third place for the October 4 first round, ahead of governors Romeu Zema (3.1%, Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (3.3%, PSD), fueling trader bets on his momentum as an anti-establishment MBL founder challenging the fragmented center-right field behind leaders Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Zema holds a slim 39% implied probability edge over Santos at 33.5%, with Caiado at 19.5%, reflecting prior polls favoring governors' name recognition amid volatility, but Renan's "Milei brasileiro" appeal and social media buzz narrow the gap. Upcoming polls, debates, or right-wing consolidations could separate frontrunners in this tight contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$270,316Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg polling from April 22-27 shows Renan Santos surging to 5.3% in third place for the October 4 first round, ahead of governors Romeu Zema (3.1%, Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (3.3%, PSD), fueling trader bets on his momentum as an anti-establishment MBL founder challenging the fragmented center-right field behind leaders Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Zema holds a slim 39% implied probability edge over Santos at 33.5%, with Caiado at 19.5%, reflecting prior polls favoring governors' name recognition amid volatility, but Renan's "Milei brasileiro" appeal and social media buzz narrow the gap. Upcoming polls, debates, or right-wing consolidations could separate frontrunners in this tight contest.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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