High interest rates, with the Selic benchmark steady near 14.5% in May 2026, continue to restrain domestic demand and investment following 2025’s deceleration to 2.3% annual GDP growth. Recent monthly data show inflation at 4.39% in April—near the upper end of the target range—alongside low unemployment near 5.8%, yet weak leading indicators such as PMI readings and industrial output point to subdued quarterly momentum. These conditions underpin the tight contest between the 1.2%–1.4% and ≥1.5% QoQ bands at 47.5% and 46.5% implied probability, respectively, as traders weigh the lagged effects of prior monetary tightening against any potential fiscal support or harvest-related boosts ahead of the Q2 release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1.2%–1.4% 48%
≥1,5% 47%
<0,0% 31%
0,9%–1,1% 1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
<0,0%
21%
0.0%–0.2%
37%
0.3%–0.5%
43%
0,6%–0,8%
43%
0,9%–1,1%
22%
1.2%–1.4%
48%
≥1,5%
47%
1.2%–1.4% 48%
≥1,5% 47%
<0,0% 31%
0,9%–1,1% 1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
<0,0%
$106 Vol.
21%
0.0%–0.2%
$70 Vol.
37%
0.3%–0.5%
$70 Vol.
43%
0,6%–0,8%
$69 Vol.
43%
0,9%–1,1%
$69 Vol.
22%
1.2%–1.4%
$101 Vol.
48%
≥1,5%
$101 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlHigh interest rates, with the Selic benchmark steady near 14.5% in May 2026, continue to restrain domestic demand and investment following 2025’s deceleration to 2.3% annual GDP growth. Recent monthly data show inflation at 4.39% in April—near the upper end of the target range—alongside low unemployment near 5.8%, yet weak leading indicators such as PMI readings and industrial output point to subdued quarterly momentum. These conditions underpin the tight contest between the 1.2%–1.4% and ≥1.5% QoQ bands at 47.5% and 46.5% implied probability, respectively, as traders weigh the lagged effects of prior monetary tightening against any potential fiscal support or harvest-related boosts ahead of the Q2 release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volumen
$587Mercado abierto
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlHigh interest rates, with the Selic benchmark steady near 14.5% in May 2026, continue to restrain domestic demand and investment following 2025’s deceleration to 2.3% annual GDP growth. Recent monthly data show inflation at 4.39% in April—near the upper end of the target range—alongside low unemployment near 5.8%, yet weak leading indicators such as PMI readings and industrial output point to subdued quarterly momentum. These conditions underpin the tight contest between the 1.2%–1.4% and ≥1.5% QoQ bands at 47.5% and 46.5% implied probability, respectively, as traders weigh the lagged effects of prior monetary tightening against any potential fiscal support or harvest-related boosts ahead of the Q2 release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$587Mercado abierto
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...High interest rates, with the Selic benchmark steady near 14.5% in May 2026, continue to restrain domestic demand and investment following 2025’s deceleration to 2.3% annual GDP growth. Recent monthly data show inflation at 4.39% in April—near the upper end of the target range—alongside low unemployment near 5.8%, yet weak leading indicators such as PMI readings and industrial output point to subdued quarterly momentum. These conditions underpin the tight contest between the 1.2%–1.4% and ≥1.5% QoQ bands at 47.5% and 46.5% implied probability, respectively, as traders weigh the lagged effects of prior monetary tightening against any potential fiscal support or harvest-related boosts ahead of the Q2 release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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