Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 78% implied probability for no named storm forming before the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 30 assessment confirming a quiet basin with no tropical disturbances or cyclone formation potential over the next seven days. Sea surface temperatures remain slightly cooler than average in the main development region (MDR) east of the Caribbean, despite warmer anomalies in the western tropics, while typical pre-season wind shear suppresses early organization. Historical data shows named storms before June 1 are rare, occurring in only about 10% of seasons since 1950. Regular NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15, with any shift hinging on evolving SSTs and atmospheric patterns amid forecasts for a below-normal 2026 season.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Formas de tormenta nombradas antes de la temporada de huracanes?
¿Formas de tormenta nombradas antes de la temporada de huracanes?
Sí
$339,505 Vol.
$339,505 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$339,505 Vol.
$339,505 Vol.
31 may 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 78% implied probability for no named storm forming before the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 30 assessment confirming a quiet basin with no tropical disturbances or cyclone formation potential over the next seven days. Sea surface temperatures remain slightly cooler than average in the main development region (MDR) east of the Caribbean, despite warmer anomalies in the western tropics, while typical pre-season wind shear suppresses early organization. Historical data shows named storms before June 1 are rare, occurring in only about 10% of seasons since 1950. Regular NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15, with any shift hinging on evolving SSTs and atmospheric patterns amid forecasts for a below-normal 2026 season.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volumen
$339,505Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 78% implied probability for no named storm forming before the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 30 assessment confirming a quiet basin with no tropical disturbances or cyclone formation potential over the next seven days. Sea surface temperatures remain slightly cooler than average in the main development region (MDR) east of the Caribbean, despite warmer anomalies in the western tropics, while typical pre-season wind shear suppresses early organization. Historical data shows named storms before June 1 are rare, occurring in only about 10% of seasons since 1950. Regular NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15, with any shift hinging on evolving SSTs and atmospheric patterns amid forecasts for a below-normal 2026 season.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volumen
$339,505Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 78% implied probability for no named storm forming before the official Atlantic hurricane season start on June 1, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 30 assessment confirming a quiet basin with no tropical disturbances or cyclone formation potential over the next seven days. Sea surface temperatures remain slightly cooler than average in the main development region (MDR) east of the Caribbean, despite warmer anomalies in the western tropics, while typical pre-season wind shear suppresses early organization. Historical data shows named storms before June 1 are rare, occurring in only about 10% of seasons since 1950. Regular NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks resume May 15, with any shift hinging on evolving SSTs and atmospheric patterns amid forecasts for a below-normal 2026 season.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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