Trader sentiment remains tightly clustered around 3-6 total magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes for the April 27-May 3 period, with ≤3 and 4 each at 22%, reflecting zero such events recorded through April 30 per USGS catalogs amid below-average global seismicity. This slow start—versus a historical weekly baseline of roughly 6-8 M5.5+ quakes driven by ongoing plate boundary stress release along the Pacific Ring of Fire, mid-ocean ridges, and subduction zones—has boosted lower outcomes, though Poisson-distributed seismicity introduces clustering risk in the remaining three days. USGS real-time monitoring shows moderate activity capped at M5.2 near Prince Edward Islands, with no active swarms; daily catalog updates and potential magnitude revisions could shift implied probabilities as May 1-3 unfolds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 27 - May 3?
≤3 22.1%
4 21.6%
5 21%
6 17%
$17,282 Vol.
$17,282 Vol.
3 may 2026
≤3
22%
4
22%
5
21%
6
17%
7
8%
8
12%
9
9%
>9
5%
≤3 22.1%
4 21.6%
5 21%
6 17%
$17,282 Vol.
$17,282 Vol.
3 may 2026
≤3
$3,879 Vol.
22%
4
$953 Vol.
22%
5
$558 Vol.
21%
6
$990 Vol.
17%
7
$1,536 Vol.
8%
8
$988 Vol.
12%
9
$1,110 Vol.
9%
>9
$7,424 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment remains tightly clustered around 3-6 total magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes for the April 27-May 3 period, with ≤3 and 4 each at 22%, reflecting zero such events recorded through April 30 per USGS catalogs amid below-average global seismicity. This slow start—versus a historical weekly baseline of roughly 6-8 M5.5+ quakes driven by ongoing plate boundary stress release along the Pacific Ring of Fire, mid-ocean ridges, and subduction zones—has boosted lower outcomes, though Poisson-distributed seismicity introduces clustering risk in the remaining three days. USGS real-time monitoring shows moderate activity capped at M5.2 near Prince Edward Islands, with no active swarms; daily catalog updates and potential magnitude revisions could shift implied probabilities as May 1-3 unfolds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Volumen
$17,282Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader sentiment remains tightly clustered around 3-6 total magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes for the April 27-May 3 period, with ≤3 and 4 each at 22%, reflecting zero such events recorded through April 30 per USGS catalogs amid below-average global seismicity. This slow start—versus a historical weekly baseline of roughly 6-8 M5.5+ quakes driven by ongoing plate boundary stress release along the Pacific Ring of Fire, mid-ocean ridges, and subduction zones—has boosted lower outcomes, though Poisson-distributed seismicity introduces clustering risk in the remaining three days. USGS real-time monitoring shows moderate activity capped at M5.2 near Prince Edward Islands, with no active swarms; daily catalog updates and potential magnitude revisions could shift implied probabilities as May 1-3 unfolds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$17,282Fecha de finalización
3 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 24, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment remains tightly clustered around 3-6 total magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes for the April 27-May 3 period, with ≤3 and 4 each at 22%, reflecting zero such events recorded through April 30 per USGS catalogs amid below-average global seismicity. This slow start—versus a historical weekly baseline of roughly 6-8 M5.5+ quakes driven by ongoing plate boundary stress release along the Pacific Ring of Fire, mid-ocean ridges, and subduction zones—has boosted lower outcomes, though Poisson-distributed seismicity introduces clustering risk in the remaining three days. USGS real-time monitoring shows moderate activity capped at M5.2 near Prince Edward Islands, with no active swarms; daily catalog updates and potential magnitude revisions could shift implied probabilities as May 1-3 unfolds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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