Korea Meteorological Administration observations place Seoul's April 2026 precipitation at approximately 37 mm through late April—roughly half the 73 mm climatological normal—driving trader consensus to 99.3% implied probability for under 40 mm. Persistent high-pressure systems and a +2.4°C temperature anomaly have suppressed typical spring frontal rainfall and convective activity, resulting in scattered early-month events (15.7 mm on April 9, 10.5 mm on April 10) followed by traces. Short-range forecasts indicate negligible accumulation on April 29–30 amid 20% precipitation odds under stable atmospheric conditions. Realistic challenges include unforeseen heavy convective showers or stalled fronts exceeding 3 mm in the final days, though model consensus deems this unlikely.