Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which reports zero potential impactors on the horizon for the year and the next century. Recent close approaches, including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 HJ1 on April 21, passed safely at distances over 150,000 miles, underscoring effective planetary defense tracking via infrared telescopes and radar. A Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—peaking at under 1 kt per CNEOS data—stems from seasonal asteroidal debris rather than elevated threat levels, with no bolides nearing 10 kt threshold. Ongoing NEO surveys maintain vigilance through December 31, barring undetected objects.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
Sí
$153,475 Vol.
$153,475 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$153,475 Vol.
$153,475 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which reports zero potential impactors on the horizon for the year and the next century. Recent close approaches, including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 HJ1 on April 21, passed safely at distances over 150,000 miles, underscoring effective planetary defense tracking via infrared telescopes and radar. A Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—peaking at under 1 kt per CNEOS data—stems from seasonal asteroidal debris rather than elevated threat levels, with no bolides nearing 10 kt threshold. Ongoing NEO surveys maintain vigilance through December 31, barring undetected objects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volumen
$153,475Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which reports zero potential impactors on the horizon for the year and the next century. Recent close approaches, including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 HJ1 on April 21, passed safely at distances over 150,000 miles, underscoring effective planetary defense tracking via infrared telescopes and radar. A Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—peaking at under 1 kt per CNEOS data—stems from seasonal asteroidal debris rather than elevated threat levels, with no bolides nearing 10 kt threshold. Ongoing NEO surveys maintain vigilance through December 31, barring undetected objects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$153,475Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 83.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, anchored by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which reports zero potential impactors on the horizon for the year and the next century. Recent close approaches, including house-sized asteroid 2026 GD on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 HJ1 on April 21, passed safely at distances over 150,000 miles, underscoring effective planetary defense tracking via infrared telescopes and radar. A Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—peaking at under 1 kt per CNEOS data—stems from seasonal asteroidal debris rather than elevated threat levels, with no bolides nearing 10 kt threshold. Ongoing NEO surveys maintain vigilance through December 31, barring undetected objects.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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